Does Personal Fouls Per Game predict winners?

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

How useful is it?

AUC

0.527

Better team wins

52.2%

Games

5,499

On its own, no better than a coin flip at picking winners.

Reading the chart: points below the dashed diagonal are games where the home team entered with the better value (for this stat, lower); a predictive stat shows more green there and more red above the diagonal. AUC summarizes exactly that separation — 0.50 is a coin flip, 1.00 is perfect.