The Predictor
Which single stat best picks winners?
For every stat, each completed game is scored by which team entered with the better season-to-date value — built only from snapshots dated before tip-off, so nothing leaks. AUC measures how well that ordering separates winners from losers (0.50 = coin flip, 1.00 = perfect); better team wins is the plain share of games won by the team entering with the better value. Single stats are weak predictors on their own — the prediction models combine dozens of them. As of 2023-04-04.
| Stat | Category | AUC | Better team wins | Games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring Margin | Scoring | 0.731 | 66.8% | 5,499 | |
| Win Percentage (WP) | Results | 0.712 | 66.6% | 5,499 | |
| Offensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.689 | 63.8% | 5,499 | |
| Defensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.680 | 62.6% | 5,499 | |
| Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.653 | 61.3% | 5,499 | |
| Assist-to-Turnover Ratio | Playmaking | 0.653 | 60.6% | 5,499 | |
| Total Rebound Percentage | Rebounding | 0.649 | 60.9% | 5,499 | |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.647 | 61.6% | 5,499 | |
| True Shooting Percentage | Shooting | 0.645 | 60.8% | 5,499 | |
| Assists Per Game | Playmaking | 0.645 | 60.5% | 5,499 | |
| Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) | Results | 0.643 | 61.5% | 5,390 | |
| Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.641 | 60.2% | 5,499 | |
| Field Goal Percentage | Shooting | 0.640 | 60.5% | 5,499 | |
| Opponent Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.631 | 58.9% | 5,499 | |
| Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.614 | 58.9% | 5,499 | |
| Defensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.606 | 58.1% | 5,499 | |
| Defensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.598 | 56.8% | 5,499 | |
| Steal Rate | Defense | 0.594 | 56.9% | 5,499 | |
| Offensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.592 | 56.7% | 5,499 | |
| Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.588 | 56.0% | 5,499 | |
| Assisted Field Goal Percentage | Playmaking | 0.586 | 56.6% | 5,499 | |
| Three-Point Percentage | Shooting | 0.584 | 55.9% | 5,499 | |
| Opponent Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.581 | 55.4% | 5,499 | |
| Block Percentage | Defense | 0.577 | 55.3% | 5,499 | |
| Offensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.563 | 54.7% | 5,499 | |
| Opponents' Win Percentage (OWP) | Results | 0.550 | 54.1% | 5,390 | |
| Opponent Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.539 | 53.0% | 5,499 | |
| Free Throw Percentage | Shooting | 0.532 | 52.4% | 5,499 | |
| Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.528 | 52.1% | 5,499 | |
| Three-Point Attempt Rate | Shooting | 0.528 | 52.4% | 5,499 | |
| Personal Fouls Per Game | Defense | 0.527 | 52.2% | 5,499 | |
| Pace | Efficiency | 0.517 | 51.7% | 5,499 | |
| Scoring Volatility | Scoring | 0.475 | 48.4% | 5,292 |
Rows in grey fall below AUC 0.55 — effectively no standalone predictive power. Defensive-direction stats are scored with their direction (lower is better) already applied.