Does Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage predict winners?
Opponent eFG%; a defense's shot-quality suppression.
Game Outcomes
Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss
Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.
How useful is it?
- AUC
- 0.641
- Better team wins
- 60.2%
- Games
- 5,499
A weak signal — better than a coin flip, but not by much.
Reading the chart: points below the dashed diagonal are games where the home team entered with the better value (for this stat, lower); a predictive stat shows more green there and more red above the diagonal. AUC summarizes exactly that separation — 0.50 is a coin flip, 1.00 is perfect.