And the sound that I'm hearing is only the sound of the low spark of high heeled boys. "The Low Spark of High Heeled Boys" - Traffic
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Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage

Opponent eFG%; a defense's shot-quality suppression.

(opponent FGM + 0.5×opponent 3PM) ÷ opponent FGA — effective field goal percentage computed on what opponents shot against this team.

Lower is better  ·  league avg 50.5%  ·  as of 2023-04-04

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 60% of games)

Based on 5499 of 5721 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 41.3% max 58.2% mean 50.5% std 2.7% (n=363)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Alabama 41.3% -3.44 100 37
2 Houston 42.7% -2.92 100 37
3 Tennessee 42.8% -2.86 99 36
4 Utah Valley 44.0% -2.44 99 34
5 UConn 44.4% -2.27 99 39
6 Hawai'i 44.5% -2.26 99 32
7 Grambling 44.5% -2.23 98 31
8 North Texas 44.6% -2.22 98 36
9 Dayton 45.0% -2.06 98 34
10 Utah 45.0% -2.06 98 32
11 USC 45.4% -1.89 97 33
12 Oklahoma State 45.6% -1.82 97 36
13 Auburn 45.7% -1.80 97 34
14 UC Irvine 45.8% -1.75 96 33
15 Duke 46.0% -1.68 96 36
16 Florida Atlantic 46.1% -1.66 96 37
17 Mississippi State 46.2% -1.62 96 34
18 Florida 46.3% -1.59 95 33
19 Iona 46.3% -1.59 95 35
20 San Diego State 46.5% -1.49 95 38
21 Arizona State 46.5% -1.49 94 36
22 Rutgers 46.6% -1.46 94 34
23 South Alabama 46.6% -1.46 94 33
24 Illinois 46.7% -1.44 94 33
25 Bradley 46.7% -1.43 93 34
26 Memphis 46.7% -1.42 93 35
27 UCLA 46.8% -1.39 93 37
28 Hofstra 46.8% -1.39 93 34
29 VCU 46.9% -1.35 92 35
30 Drake 46.9% -1.34 92 34
31 Fordham 46.9% -1.34 92 33
32 Kansas 47.0% -1.32 91 36
33 UMass Lowell 47.0% -1.32 91 32
34 Yale 47.0% -1.32 91 28
35 Washington 47.1% -1.28 91 32
36 Saint Mary's 47.1% -1.28 90 34
37 Arizona 47.1% -1.28 90 35
38 Creighton 47.1% -1.28 90 37
39 Oregon 47.1% -1.27 90 36
40 Purdue 47.2% -1.26 89 35
41 Arkansas 47.2% -1.25 89 36
42 Indiana 47.2% -1.24 89 35
43 Clemson 47.3% -1.21 88 34
44 Kent State 47.3% -1.20 88 33
45 UAB 47.3% -1.20 88 38
46 Drexel 47.4% -1.18 88 31
47 Wichita State 47.5% -1.14 87 32
48 Grand Canyon 47.5% -1.12 87 33
49 Boise State 47.5% -1.11 87 33
50 California Baptist 47.6% -1.11 86 31
51 Seton Hall 47.6% -1.10 86 32
52 Southern Illinois 47.6% -1.07 86 32
53 Cincinnati 47.7% -1.07 86 35
54 Maryland 47.7% -1.04 85 35
55 Marshall 47.7% -1.04 85 31
56 UNC Greensboro 47.8% -1.01 85 30
57 Southern Miss 47.8% -1.01 85 30
58 App State 47.9% -0.99 84 29
59 Charleston 47.9% -0.99 84 34
60 Michigan 47.9% -0.99 84 34
61 Marist 47.9% -0.98 83 33
62 George Mason 47.9% -0.97 83 33
63 UCF 48.0% -0.96 83 34
64 Colorado 48.0% -0.96 83 35
65 Oklahoma 48.0% -0.94 82 32
66 Kansas State 48.1% -0.91 82 36
67 Quinnipiac 48.1% -0.90 82 31
68 Texas 48.1% -0.90 81 38
69 Utah State 48.1% -0.89 81 34
70 TCU 48.1% -0.89 81 35
71 Milwaukee 48.2% -0.86 81 31
72 Indiana State 48.2% -0.86 80 35
73 Texas A&M 48.2% -0.86 80 35
74 Prairie View A&M 48.2% -0.85 80 30
75 Virginia 48.3% -0.84 80 33
76 Old Dominion 48.3% -0.84 79 30
77 UNC Asheville 48.3% -0.83 79 33
78 Saint Louis 48.3% -0.83 79 32
79 San José State 48.4% -0.80 78 34
80 Princeton 48.4% -0.80 78 30
81 Cleveland State 48.4% -0.79 78 33
82 Northwestern 48.4% -0.78 78 34
83 Pittsburgh 48.5% -0.77 77 36
84 Cal State Fullerton 48.5% -0.74 77 31
85 St. Bonaventure 48.6% -0.73 77 32
86 Vanderbilt 48.6% -0.73 77 37
87 Towson 48.6% -0.72 76 33
88 Michigan State 48.6% -0.72 76 34
89 Troy 48.6% -0.72 76 30
90 Oral Roberts 48.6% -0.71 75 31
91 Kentucky 48.6% -0.71 75 34
92 North Carolina 48.7% -0.68 75 33
93 Temple 48.7% -0.67 75 32
94 Harvard 48.8% -0.66 74 26
95 Mercer 48.8% -0.65 74 31
96 Seattle U 48.8% -0.65 74 30
97 Ohio State 48.9% -0.63 73 35
98 North Carolina Central 48.9% -0.62 73 26
99 Texas Tech 48.9% -0.62 73 32
100 Mount St. Mary's 48.9% -0.60 73 32
101 Sam Houston 49.0% -0.58 72 30
102 SIU Edwardsville 49.0% -0.58 72 30
103 Merrimack 49.1% -0.55 72 32
104 New Hampshire 49.1% -0.54 72 28
105 Rhode Island 49.1% -0.53 71 31
106 Wagner 49.1% -0.53 71 26
107 Penn State 49.1% -0.52 71 37
108 Liberty 49.1% -0.52 70 33
109 Gardner-Webb 49.1% -0.51 70 29
110 Pennsylvania 49.2% -0.50 70 29
111 UNC Wilmington 49.2% -0.49 70 32
112 East Carolina 49.2% -0.48 69 33
113 Fairfield 49.3% -0.47 69 30
114 Missouri State 49.3% -0.47 69 31
115 Air Force 49.3% -0.46 69 32
116 James Madison 49.4% -0.42 68 30
117 Alabama A&M 49.4% -0.41 68 30
118 BYU 49.5% -0.39 68 32
119 Saint Peter's 49.5% -0.38 67 31
120 Alabama State 49.5% -0.38 67 30
121 Ole Miss 49.5% -0.37 67 33
122 Georgia Southern 49.5% -0.37 67 30
123 Richmond 49.6% -0.36 66 33
124 Texas Southern 49.6% -0.35 66 33
125 Robert Morris 49.6% -0.34 66 31
126 Siena 49.6% -0.33 65 32
127 UT Martin 49.6% -0.33 65 29
128 Oregon State 49.6% -0.33 65 31
129 Akron 49.7% -0.31 65 31
130 Providence 49.7% -0.30 64 33
131 Washington State 49.8% -0.29 64 34
132 Jacksonville 49.8% -0.28 64 26
133 NC State 49.8% -0.27 64 34
134 Morehead State 49.8% -0.27 63 30
135 Nevada 49.8% -0.27 63 32
136 South Florida 49.8% -0.27 63 32
137 Long Beach State 49.8% -0.27 62 31
138 Georgia 49.8% -0.26 62 32
139 Niagara 49.8% -0.26 62 30
140 Montana State 49.9% -0.25 62 33
141 Iowa State 49.9% -0.24 61 33
142 Tennessee State 49.9% -0.24 61 28
143 San Francisco 49.9% -0.24 61 33
144 Nebraska 49.9% -0.22 60 32
145 Bryant 50.0% -0.21 60 28
146 Butler 50.1% -0.18 60 32
147 South Carolina Upstate 50.1% -0.17 60 30
148 Georgia Tech 50.1% -0.17 59 31
149 Kansas City 50.1% -0.16 59 30
150 Northeastern 50.1% -0.16 59 30
151 UC Santa Barbara 50.1% -0.15 59 33
152 Charlotte 50.2% -0.14 58 36
153 Massachusetts 50.2% -0.14 58 31
154 Eastern Washington 50.2% -0.13 58 33
155 Norfolk State 50.2% -0.13 57 29
156 Stonehill 50.2% -0.12 57 30
157 Wisconsin 50.2% -0.12 57 35
158 Lipscomb 50.2% -0.12 57 30
159 Sacred Heart 50.2% -0.11 56 32
160 St. John's 50.2% -0.11 56 33
161 Arkansas State 50.2% -0.11 56 30
162 Stony Brook 50.3% -0.10 56 31
163 Xavier 50.3% -0.09 55 37
164 Wright State 50.3% -0.07 55 31
165 Rider 50.3% -0.07 55 29
166 Cal Poly 50.4% -0.07 54 31
167 Lehigh 50.4% -0.06 54 28
168 Navy 50.4% -0.06 54 30
169 Tulane 50.4% -0.05 54 31
170 Cal State Northridge 50.4% -0.04 53 30
171 Binghamton 50.5% -0.03 53 29
172 New Mexico 50.5% -0.01 53 33
173 St. Francis Brooklyn 50.5% -0.01 52 28
174 Duquesne 50.5% +0.00 52 33
175 Minnesota 50.5% +0.00 52 31
176 Saint Joseph's 50.5% +0.01 52 33
177 Louisiana 50.5% +0.01 51 31
178 North Carolina A&T 50.6% +0.02 51 29
179 Eastern Kentucky 50.6% +0.03 51 34
180 Furman 50.6% +0.04 51 33
181 Maryland Eastern Shore 50.6% +0.04 50 27
182 Virginia Tech 50.6% +0.04 50 34
183 Morgan State 50.7% +0.05 50 27
184 Western Kentucky 50.7% +0.05 49 31
185 Florida Gulf Coast 50.7% +0.05 49 31
186 Georgia State 50.7% +0.05 49 28
187 Boston University 50.7% +0.06 49 30
188 Northern Illinois 50.7% +0.06 48 30
189 Villanova 50.7% +0.07 48 34
190 High Point 50.7% +0.07 48 29
191 UC Davis 50.7% +0.08 48 30
192 East Tennessee State 50.8% +0.08 47 30
193 Davidson 50.8% +0.09 47 31
194 Santa Clara 50.8% +0.09 47 32
195 North Dakota State 50.8% +0.12 46 31
196 Lafayette 50.8% +0.12 46 34
197 Chattanooga 50.9% +0.13 46 32
198 West Virginia 50.9% +0.13 46 34
199 Texas State 50.9% +0.13 45 32
200 South Dakota State 50.9% +0.14 45 31
201 Western Carolina 50.9% +0.15 45 31
202 Howard 50.9% +0.15 44 32
203 Northwestern State 51.0% +0.16 44 32
204 Marquette 51.0% +0.16 44 36
205 La Salle 51.0% +0.18 44 34
206 Ball State 51.0% +0.18 43 30
207 Vermont 51.0% +0.19 43 33
208 UTEP 51.1% +0.19 43 30
209 Belmont 51.1% +0.20 43 31
210 Kennesaw State 51.1% +0.20 42 32
211 Cal State Bakersfield 51.1% +0.20 42 31
212 Florida A&M 51.1% +0.22 42 27
213 Longwood 51.2% +0.24 41 30
214 Montana 51.2% +0.24 41 30
215 Fresno State 51.2% +0.24 41 30
216 Syracuse 51.2% +0.24 41 32
217 Miami 51.2% +0.25 40 37
218 Brown 51.2% +0.25 40 27
219 UIC 51.2% +0.25 40 31
220 Bucknell 51.2% +0.26 40 31
221 Youngstown State 51.3% +0.28 39 32
222 Manhattan 51.3% +0.28 39 29
223 Idaho State 51.3% +0.29 39 30
224 Central Connecticut 51.3% +0.29 38 32
225 UC Riverside 51.3% +0.29 38 33
226 Dartmouth 51.3% +0.30 38 26
227 Northern Kentucky 51.3% +0.30 38 33
228 Southern 51.4% +0.31 37 30
229 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51.4% +0.31 37 27
230 Army 51.4% +0.31 37 31
231 Alcorn State 51.4% +0.32 36 32
232 Stephen F. Austin 51.4% +0.33 36 29
233 Gonzaga 51.4% +0.34 36 36
234 Southern Utah 51.5% +0.36 36 33
235 Stanford 51.5% +0.38 35 33
236 Boston College 51.5% +0.38 35 33
237 Valparaiso 51.5% +0.38 35 31
238 Baylor 51.6% +0.39 35 34
239 Wake Forest 51.6% +0.39 34 33
240 DePaul 51.6% +0.39 34 33
241 Ohio 51.6% +0.40 34 32
242 California 51.6% +0.40 33 32
243 Middle Tennessee 51.6% +0.41 33 31
244 Loyola Chicago 51.6% +0.41 33 31
245 Denver 51.7% +0.43 33 30
246 Southern Indiana 51.7% +0.43 32 30
247 Tennessee Tech 51.7% +0.44 32 30
248 UL Monroe 51.7% +0.45 32 29
249 Delaware 51.8% +0.46 31 32
250 SMU 51.8% +0.46 31 32
251 American University 51.8% +0.46 31 32
252 UC San Diego 51.8% +0.46 31 28
253 Holy Cross 51.8% +0.47 30 30
254 Southeast Missouri State 51.8% +0.47 30 33
255 LSU 51.8% +0.48 30 33
256 Murray State 51.8% +0.48 30 31
257 Loyola Marymount 51.8% +0.49 29 30
258 Illinois State 51.8% +0.49 29 32
259 Central Michigan 51.9% +0.50 29 29
260 Samford 51.9% +0.50 28 28
261 UT Arlington 51.9% +0.50 28 29
262 Purdue Fort Wayne 51.9% +0.51 28 30
263 St. Thomas-Minnesota 51.9% +0.51 28 31
264 Saint Francis 51.9% +0.52 27 29
265 Columbia 52.0% +0.53 27 27
266 George Washington 52.0% +0.54 27 31
267 UT Rio Grande Valley 52.0% +0.54 27 28
268 Notre Dame 52.1% +0.57 26 32
269 Elon 52.1% +0.57 26 30
270 North Alabama 52.1% +0.57 26 30
271 Florida International 52.1% +0.60 25 30
272 Colorado State 52.2% +0.62 25 32
273 Eastern Illinois 52.2% +0.62 25 29
274 Radford 52.2% +0.62 25 34
275 Colgate 52.2% +0.62 24 34
276 Sacramento State 52.2% +0.62 24 30
277 Jackson State 52.2% +0.63 24 33
278 Missouri 52.3% +0.67 23 35
279 NJIT 52.3% +0.68 23 29
280 UNLV 52.4% +0.68 23 31
281 Lindenwood 52.4% +0.69 23 29
282 The Citadel 52.4% +0.69 22 31
283 North Florida 52.4% +0.71 22 29
284 UTSA 52.5% +0.72 22 30
285 Nicholls 52.5% +0.74 22 27
286 Buffalo 52.5% +0.74 21 30
287 Jacksonville State 52.5% +0.74 21 28
288 Pepperdine 52.5% +0.75 21 29
289 Campbell 52.5% +0.75 20 32
290 Bethune-Cookman 52.6% +0.77 20 30
291 South Carolina 52.6% +0.78 20 32
292 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 52.6% +0.79 20 31
293 South Dakota 52.7% +0.81 19 29
294 Weber State 52.8% +0.83 19 31
295 East Texas A&M 52.8% +0.84 19 32
296 Canisius 52.8% +0.85 19 29
297 Toledo 52.8% +0.85 18 34
298 Stetson 52.9% +0.88 18 29
299 UMBC 52.9% +0.90 18 31
300 Queens University 53.0% +0.92 17 30
301 Lamar 53.0% +0.94 17 28
302 Northern Colorado 53.1% +0.94 17 31
303 Coastal Carolina 53.1% +0.94 17 28
304 Florida State 53.1% +0.96 16 32
305 Omaha 53.2% +0.98 16 31
306 Coppin State 53.2% +1.00 16 32
307 Mississippi Valley State 53.3% +1.02 15 32
308 Iowa 53.3% +1.02 15 33
309 Chicago State 53.3% +1.04 15 27
310 Tarleton State 53.3% +1.04 15 30
311 Wyoming 53.4% +1.06 14 30
312 Western Illinois 53.4% +1.07 14 27
313 Maine 53.4% +1.09 14 28
314 North Dakota 53.5% +1.11 14 31
315 Detroit Mercy 53.6% +1.13 13 32
316 Georgetown 53.6% +1.13 13 32
317 Tulsa 53.6% +1.15 13 30
318 New Mexico State 53.6% +1.16 12 21
319 Miami (OH) 53.7% +1.19 12 29
320 Northern Iowa 53.8% +1.20 12 31
321 Utah Tech 53.8% +1.23 12 30
322 Hampton 53.9% +1.26 11 31
323 William & Mary 53.9% +1.26 11 31
324 Presbyterian 54.0% +1.28 11 30
325 Louisiana Tech 54.0% +1.29 10 30
326 Pacific 54.0% +1.31 10 31
327 Bowling Green 54.1% +1.32 10 29
328 Louisville 54.1% +1.32 10 32
329 New Orleans 54.1% +1.34 9 30
330 SE Louisiana 54.2% +1.38 9 29
331 Charleston Southern 54.3% +1.41 9 29
332 Idaho 54.3% +1.42 9 30
333 Incarnate Word 54.4% +1.43 8 28
334 Monmouth 54.4% +1.44 8 33
335 Portland 54.5% +1.47 8 31
336 Bellarmine 54.7% +1.54 7 30
337 Fairleigh Dickinson 54.7% +1.54 7 35
338 Central Arkansas 54.7% +1.55 7 30
339 Austin Peay 54.7% +1.56 7 28
340 Rice 54.7% +1.57 6 32
341 Wofford 54.8% +1.58 6 30
342 Winthrop 54.8% +1.58 6 30
343 Delaware State 54.8% +1.59 6 28
344 Oakland 54.8% +1.59 5 31
345 Green Bay 54.8% +1.59 5 32
346 Western Michigan 54.8% +1.60 5 28
347 McNeese 55.0% +1.65 4 33
348 Portland State 55.0% +1.68 4 29
349 IU Indianapolis 55.0% +1.68 4 30
350 Long Island University 55.1% +1.69 4 27
351 UAlbany 55.3% +1.76 3 29
352 Northern Arizona 55.3% +1.78 3 33
353 Hartford 55.4% +1.81 3 25
354 Loyola Maryland 55.5% +1.85 2 31
355 Eastern Michigan 55.6% +1.89 2 30
356 Cornell 55.7% +1.93 2 26
357 Evansville 55.7% +1.94 2 32
358 Little Rock 56.1% +2.07 1 29
359 Abilene Christian 56.5% +2.24 1 26
360 VMI 56.9% +2.37 1 29
361 Houston Christian 57.5% +2.61 1 29
362 South Carolina State 57.7% +2.68 0 30
363 San Diego 58.2% +2.87 0 29