Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +750 JMU -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -10.4 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -10.7 (+4.7) | 144.3 (+19.7) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -10.5 (+4.5) | 142.8 (+21.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -10.4 (+4.4) | 142.6 (+21.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -10.3 (+4.3) | 142.6 (+21.4) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2024 | JMU 89 – 70 ULM |
| Jan 28, 2023 | JMU 58 – 45 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-11 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#347) | 0.5 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#342) | 0.62 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#342) | 0.60 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#353) | 0.575 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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