Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | M-OH +160 BUF -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +28 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | M-OH -3.2 (-31.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -2.8 (-30.8) | 139.4 (+12.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -1.4 (-29.4) | 142.2 (+9.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -2.7 (-30.7) | 142.7 (+9.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -2.2 (-30.2) | 140.2 (+11.8) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | M-OH 73 – 71 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2026 | M-OH 105 – 102 BUF |
| Mar 5, 2025 | M-OH 84 – 69 BUF |
| Jan 4, 2025 | M-OH 93 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2024 | M-OH 86 – 65 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 12-5 |
| Home | 7-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#189) | 0.7 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#141) | -0.40 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#142) | -0.57 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#204) | 0.443 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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