Does Three-Point Percentage predict winners?

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

How useful is it?

AUC

0.592

Better team wins

56.6%

Games

5,531

A weak signal — better than a coin flip, but not by much.

Reading the chart: points below the dashed diagonal are games where the home team entered with the better value; a predictive stat shows more green there and more red above the diagonal. AUC summarizes exactly that separation — 0.50 is a coin flip, 1.00 is perfect.