The Predictor
Which single stat best picks winners?
For every stat, each completed game is scored by which team entered with the better season-to-date value — built only from snapshots dated before tip-off, so nothing leaks. AUC measures how well that ordering separates winners from losers (0.50 = coin flip, 1.00 = perfect); better team wins is the plain share of games won by the team entering with the better value. Single stats are weak predictors on their own — the prediction models combine dozens of them. As of 2026-04-07.
| Stat | Category | AUC | Better team wins | Games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring Margin | Scoring | 0.750 | 68.1% | 5,531 | |
| Win Percentage (WP) | Results | 0.723 | 67.0% | 5,531 | |
| Offensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.718 | 65.7% | 5,531 | |
| Defensive Efficiency | Efficiency | 0.694 | 64.2% | 5,531 | |
| Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.692 | 64.3% | 5,531 | |
| Assist-to-Turnover Ratio | Playmaking | 0.686 | 63.9% | 5,531 | |
| Total Rebound Percentage | Rebounding | 0.685 | 64.2% | 5,531 | |
| True Shooting Percentage | Shooting | 0.668 | 62.7% | 5,531 | |
| Field Goal Percentage | Shooting | 0.666 | 62.3% | 5,531 | |
| Assists Per Game | Playmaking | 0.665 | 61.5% | 5,531 | |
| Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.662 | 61.8% | 5,531 | |
| Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage | Four Factors | 0.657 | 61.5% | 5,531 | |
| Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.651 | 61.4% | 5,531 | |
| Opponent Points Per Game | Scoring | 0.645 | 60.7% | 5,531 | |
| Defensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.639 | 60.2% | 5,531 | |
| Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) | Results | 0.637 | 60.3% | 5,425 | |
| Offensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.632 | 59.8% | 5,531 | |
| Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.626 | 59.0% | 5,531 | |
| Defensive Rebound Percentage | Four Factors | 0.621 | 59.0% | 5,531 | |
| Three-Point Percentage | Shooting | 0.592 | 56.6% | 5,531 | |
| Offensive Rebounds Per Game | Rebounding | 0.589 | 56.6% | 5,531 | |
| Assisted Field Goal Percentage | Playmaking | 0.585 | 56.2% | 5,531 | |
| Opponent Turnover Rate | Four Factors | 0.584 | 55.6% | 5,531 | |
| Block Percentage | Defense | 0.580 | 56.2% | 5,531 | |
| Steal Rate | Defense | 0.579 | 55.7% | 5,531 | |
| Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.563 | 55.2% | 5,531 | |
| Opponent Free Throw Rate | Four Factors | 0.548 | 54.8% | 5,531 | |
| Free Throw Percentage | Shooting | 0.545 | 53.3% | 5,531 | |
| Personal Fouls Per Game | Defense | 0.540 | 53.4% | 5,531 | |
| Opponents' Win Percentage (OWP) | Results | 0.525 | 52.1% | 5,425 | |
| Pace | Efficiency | 0.525 | 51.4% | 5,531 | |
| Three-Point Attempt Rate | Shooting | 0.521 | 51.7% | 5,531 | |
| Scoring Volatility | Scoring | 0.490 | 49.3% | 5,333 |
Rows in grey fall below AUC 0.55 — effectively no standalone predictive power. Defensive-direction stats are scored with their direction (lower is better) already applied.