Does Scoring Volatility predict winners?
How much a team's game margins swing — the standard deviation of margin.
Game Outcomes
Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss
Based on 5313 of 5727 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.
How useful is it?
- AUC
- 0.467
- Better team wins
- 47.6%
- Games
- 5,313
On its own, no better than a coin flip at picking winners.
Reading the chart: points below the dashed diagonal are games where the home team entered with the better value (for this stat, lower); a predictive stat shows more green there and more red above the diagonal. AUC summarizes exactly that separation — 0.50 is a coin flip, 1.00 is perfect.