Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | HC +300 NE -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NE -5.7 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -3.9 (+20.9) | 135.3 (-0.3) | 33% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | NE -6.6 (+23.6) | 133.3 (+1.7) | 24% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | NE -3.5 (+20.5) | 135.9 (-0.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NE -3.5 (+20.5) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | NE 59 – 58 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-8 | 2-10 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#316) | 1.0 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#309) | -0.20 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#305) | -0.10 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#322) | 0.491 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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