Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +12 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -7.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -7.4 (+4.6) | 133.4 (-9.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -4.4 (+7.6) | 133.1 (-9.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.7 (+7.3) | 131.2 (-7.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -5.9 (+6.1) | 132.0 (-8.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2023 | ECU 63 – 52 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-9 |
| Home | 7-10 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#319) | -12.2 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#306) | -1.41 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#314) | -3.04 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#201) | 0.447 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 25.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 14.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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