Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Boise State Broncos
100 93
FINAL Neutral College Basketball Crown
Butler Bulldogs
MGM Grand Garden Arena (Neutral) · April 2, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread BOIS -8.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money BOIS -425 / BUT +320
Model Predictions
Spread Total BOIS win
Actual BOIS +7 193 Won
Massey BOIS -4.5 (+2.5)
Massey Totals 145.4 (+47.6)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 79%
Efficiency Plus ML BOIS -5.9 (+1.1) 141.9 (+51.1) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML BOIS -3.7 (+3.3) 142.9 (+50.1) 70%
Baseline ML BOIS -4.0 (+3.0) 150.3 (+42.7) 61%
Baseline Plus ML BOIS -4.1 (+2.9) 143.5 (+49.5) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 6, 2025 BOIS 7768 BUT
Nov 26, 2023 BUT 7056 BOIS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BOIS BUT
Overall 26-11 15-20
Conference 14-6 6-14
Home 13-3 9-8
Away 6-5 2-9
Neutral 7-3 4-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.1 74.7
Avg Pts Against 67.0 74.9
Massey 12.3 (#46) 7.7 (#73)
Bradley-Terry 1.98 (#50) 0.72 (#112)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.50 (#52) 1.20 (#89)
RPI 0.572 (#50) 0.504 (#162)
Shooting & Four Factors BOIS BUT
FG% 45.5% 45.6%
3PT% 31.2% 36.8%
REB / G 36.2 35.1
OREB / G 10.6 8.6
AST / TO 1.29 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 53.2%
TOV% 16.7% 16.3%
ORB% 33.0% 26.3%
FT Rate 29.8% 27.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 11.5%
DRB% 77.7% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 15.6%

Game Analysis

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