Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CSU +170 MEM -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +23 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -2.3 (-20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -2.0 (-21.0) | 133.9 (+23.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -1.9 (-21.1) | 134.9 (+22.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -2.6 (-20.4) | 133.8 (+23.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -2.5 (-20.5) | 133.0 (+24.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 21, 2025 | CSU 78 – 70 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-4 |
| Home | 10-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#59) | 11.3 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#38) | 1.85 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#54) | 2.58 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#34) | 0.571 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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