Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ND -1300 DETM +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ND -5.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.1 (+3.9) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.3 (+3.7) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -3.6 (+4.4) | 150.8 (-2.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | ND 102 – 70 DETM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 12-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-6 |
| Home | 6-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#118) | 2.8 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#159) | -0.16 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#154) | -0.12 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#62) | 0.583 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 21.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 16.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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