He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Purcell Pavilion · December 7, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread ND -13.0 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Under
Money ND -1300 / DETM +750
Model Predictions
Spread Total ND win
Actual ND +8 148 Won
Massey ND -5.8 (+2.2)
Massey Totals 152.9 (-4.9)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 85%
Baseline Tuned ML ND -4.1 (+3.9) 146.7 (+1.3) 66%
Baseline ML ND -4.3 (+3.7) 146.4 (+1.6) 65%
Baseline Plus ML ND -3.6 (+4.4) 150.8 (-2.8) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 8, 2025 ND 10270 DETM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ND DETM
Overall 11-15 12-10
Conference 7-11 10-6
Home 6-5 7-5
Away 4-8 5-5
Neutral 1-2 0-0
Last 5 0-1 0-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.7 76.5
Avg Pts Against 74.3 74.0
Massey 1.3 (#118) 2.8 (#94)
Bradley-Terry -0.16 (#159) -0.16 (#158)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.13 (#154) -0.12 (#153)
RPI 0.583 (#62) 0.583 (#62)
Shooting & Four Factors ND DETM
FG% 35.0% 41.1%
3PT% 38.1% 21.7%
REB / G 36.0 36.0
OREB / G 7.0 14.0
AST / TO 1.30 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 41.7% 44.5%
TOV% 13.3% 15.7%
ORB% 16.3% 33.3%
FT Rate 33.3% 15.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 53.3%
Opp TOV% 15.5% 22.4%
DRB% 70.7% 64.7%
Opp FT Rate 18.6% 31.7%

Game Analysis

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