Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | GW -3.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -3.3 (+5.7) | 131.2 (-6.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -1.4 (+7.6) | 131.0 (-6.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -2.4 (+6.6) | 131.5 (-6.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -2.7 (+6.3) | 132.2 (-7.2) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2022 | RAD 86 – 76 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#272) | -4.7 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#286) | -1.08 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#276) | -1.18 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#328) | 0.456 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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