Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | CHST -6.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CHST -3.5 (-14.5) | 125.3 (+3.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CHST -4.1 (-15.1) | 129.7 (-0.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CHST -4.6 (-15.6) | 128.7 (+0.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -4.1 (-15.1) | 127.8 (+1.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2020 | NIU 64 – 54 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 5-9 | 3-8 |
| Away | 2-15 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.1 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#326) | -12.3 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#285) | -1.25 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#292) | -1.87 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#330) | 0.439 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 41.6% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 23.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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