I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
Lavietes Pavilion · November 25, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread COLG -2.5 Home covered
O/U 147.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total HARV win
Actual HARV +5 173 Won
Massey HARV -0.9 (+4.1)
Massey Totals 151.1 (+21.9)
Bradley-Terry 33%
Weighted B-T 11%
Efficiency Plus ML COLG -1.7 (+6.7) 147.5 (+25.5) 40%
Baseline Tuned ML HARV -1.7 (+3.3) 147.9 (+25.1) 51%
Baseline ML HARV -1.1 (+3.9) 149.8 (+23.2) 59%
Baseline Plus ML HARV -0.6 (+4.4) 151.0 (+22.0) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 28, 2025 HARV 7869 COLG
Nov 23, 2024 HARV 7867 COLG
Nov 22, 2023 HARV 7670 COLG

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HARV COLG
Overall 13-13 23-12
Conference 5-9 16-2
Home 9-6 15-1
Away 4-7 8-10
Neutral 0-0 0-1
Last 5 1-2 2-2
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 69.6 75.0
Avg Pts Against 70.0 67.6
Massey 0.3 (#163) 6.5 (#71)
Bradley-Terry -0.89 (#244) 1.43 (#73)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.82 (#274) 2.27 (#73)
RPI 0.443 (#245) 0.612 (#56)
Shooting & Four Factors HARV COLG
FG% 43.9% 42.2%
3PT% 34.4% 34.9%
REB / G 31.7 36.5
OREB / G 7.0 11.8
AST / TO 0.70 1.71
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.3% 50.8%
TOV% 21.0% 15.0%
ORB% 21.0% 29.9%
FT Rate 25.7% 18.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.5% 48.3%
Opp TOV% 21.5% 16.0%
DRB% 74.0% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 34.1% 28.6%

Game Analysis

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