Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -0.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -1.7 (+6.7) | 147.5 (+25.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -1.7 (+3.3) | 147.9 (+25.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -1.1 (+3.9) | 149.8 (+23.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -0.6 (+4.4) | 151.0 (+22.0) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 28, 2025 | HARV 78 – 69 COLG |
| Nov 23, 2024 | HARV 78 – 67 COLG |
| Nov 22, 2023 | HARV 76 – 70 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#163) | 6.5 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#244) | 1.43 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#274) | 2.27 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#245) | 0.612 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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