Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +17 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -6.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.9 (+11.1) | 162.0 (+3.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.8 (+8.2) | 163.8 (+1.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -9.3 (+7.7) | 163.5 (+1.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2024 | SDST 89 – 61 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-0 | 13-1 |
| Away | 10-3 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#118) | 5.8 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#64) | -0.33 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#73) | -0.31 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#126) | 0.625 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 56.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.5% | 47.4% |
Game Analysis
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