Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +21 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | BUT -4.5 (-25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -4.3 (-25.3) | 137.8 (-12.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -6.8 (-27.8) | 137.9 (-12.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -2.0 (-23.0) | 137.6 (-12.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2023 | MSU 74 – 54 BUT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#163) | 5.9 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#90) | -0.44 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#88) | -0.58 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#115) | 0.656 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 47.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 41.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 81.9% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.6% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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