Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +45 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -29.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -25.2 (+19.8) | 147.7 (-8.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -20.6 (+24.4) | 148.9 (-9.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -29.1 (+15.9) | 150.5 (-11.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -29.0 (+16.0) | 151.2 (-12.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2020 | BAY 93 – 56 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#49) | -12.0 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#88) | -0.80 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#81) | -1.20 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#78) | 0.458 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 43.2% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 8.4% | 10.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 61.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 86.2% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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