Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Gallagher-Iba Arena · March 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread OKST -4.5 Away covered
O/U 121.5 Over
Money OKST -195 / UNT +162
Model Predictions
Spread Total OKST win
Actual UNT +6 124 Lost
Massey OKST -4.4 (-10.4)
Massey Totals 115.0 (+9.0)
Bradley-Terry 58%
Weighted B-T 70%
Baseline ML OKST -3.9 (-9.9) 124.5 (-0.5) 47%
Baseline Plus ML OKST -2.2 (-8.2) 122.0 (+2.0) 40%
Efficiency Plus ML OKST -3.3 (-9.3) 124.7 (-0.7) 47%
Baseline Tuned ML OKST -3.1 (-9.1) 123.4 (+0.6) 60%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 26, 2025 UNT 6159 OKST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings OKST UNT
Overall 20-16 31-7
Conference 8-10 16-4
Home 12-6 14-2
Away 6-7 10-3
Neutral 2-3 7-2
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 W5
Avg Pts For 68.3 64.5
Avg Pts Against 65.8 56.3
Massey 10.6 (#42) 9.7 (#51)
Bradley-Terry 1.82 (#43) 2.11 (#32)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.42 (#38) 2.31 (#41)
RPI 0.553 (#73) 0.598 (#23)
Shooting & Four Factors OKST UNT
FG% 43.1% 44.0%
3PT% 31.4% 36.4%
REB / G 37.2 33.1
OREB / G 11.1 10.2
AST / TO 0.89 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.2% 51.6%
TOV% 20.7% 19.8%
ORB% 32.2% 33.3%
FT Rate 22.5% 24.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.7% 45.0%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 20.0%
DRB% 72.0% 72.1%
Opp FT Rate 23.1% 27.8%

Game Analysis

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