Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -225 EMU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +6 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -9.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -6.6 (-0.6) | 146.4 (+21.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -7.6 (-1.6) | 145.6 (+22.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -6.9 (-0.9) | 145.8 (+22.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -6.7 (-0.7) | 147.2 (+20.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2021 | EMU 103 – 98 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#260) | -9.1 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#261) | -2.48 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#277) | -2.79 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#239) | 0.375 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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