Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MER -154 QUC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MER -3.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -2.7 (+16.3) | 148.0 (+1.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.7 (+16.3) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.8 (+16.2) | 146.6 (+2.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.4 (+17.6) | 145.2 (+3.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | QUC 73 – 66 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 82.6 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#290) | -5.2 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#239) | -0.29 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#286) | -0.58 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#267) | 0.465 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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