Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ORST -550 UTSA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -9.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -7.3 (-6.3) | 154.6 (-23.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -7.1 (-6.1) | 149.9 (-18.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -7.3 (-6.3) | 150.7 (-19.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -6.8 (-5.8) | 155.6 (-24.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2020 | ORST 73 – 61 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-9 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#219) | -7.1 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#126) | -1.31 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#148) | -1.75 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#117) | 0.399 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.4% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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