Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Avron B. Fogelman Arena in the Devlin Fieldhouse · December 15, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TULN -7.0 Push
O/U 172.5 Over
Money TULN -335 / FUR +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total TULN win
Actual TULN +7 227 Won
Massey TULN -8.4 (-1.4)
Massey Totals 178.6 (+48.4)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline Plus ML TULN -8.5 (-1.5) 169.8 (+57.2) 80%
Baseline ML TULN -8.1 (-1.1) 166.5 (+60.5) 80%
Baseline Tuned ML TULN -6.7 (+0.3) 162.5 (+64.5) 76%
Efficiency Plus ML TULN -6.2 (+0.8) 161.7 (+65.3) 76%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 16, 2024 FUR 7567 TULN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TULN FUR
Overall 14-17 17-16
Conference 5-13 10-8
Home 11-6 12-3
Away 2-8 3-10
Neutral 1-3 2-3
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 81.5 78.8
Avg Pts Against 80.6 76.7
Massey 3.6 (#116) 0.0 (#168)
Bradley-Terry 1.00 (#101) -0.35 (#217)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.33 (#97) -0.19 (#194)
RPI 0.514 (#152) 0.479 (#207)
Shooting & Four Factors TULN FUR
FG% 51.7% 46.9%
3PT% 29.4% 33.8%
REB / G 30.8 36.4
OREB / G 5.8 10.8
AST / TO 1.08 1.38
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.8% 54.8%
TOV% 15.6% 18.3%
ORB% 19.0% 29.8%
FT Rate 44.0% 21.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 54.5%
Opp TOV% 21.2% 15.0%
DRB% 66.0% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 18.8% 21.1%

Game Analysis

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