Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -190 UND +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -10.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -8.0 (-2.0) | 134.9 (-4.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -6.2 (-0.2) | 137.3 (-7.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -5.9 (+0.1) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -5.9 (+0.1) | 136.9 (-6.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | UND 76 – 74 UCR |
| Nov 7, 2025 | UCR 74 – 70 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#206) | -6.6 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#251) | 1.32 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#219) | 1.06 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#261) | 0.560 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 24.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 12.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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