Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Reilly Center · November 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SBU -15.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money SBU -2000 / BUCK +1400
Model Predictions
Spread Total SBU win
Actual SBU +6 128 Won
Massey SBU -10.5 (-4.5)
Massey Totals 129.4 (-1.4)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 92%
Baseline Plus ML SBU -7.0 (-1.0) 131.2 (-3.2) 73%
Baseline ML SBU -6.8 (-0.8) 132.9 (-4.9) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML SBU -6.3 (-0.3) 133.0 (-5.0) 70%
Efficiency Plus ML SBU -8.1 (-2.1) 130.9 (-2.9) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 5, 2024 SBU 6447 BUCK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SBU BUCK
Overall 20-13 14-19
Conference 9-9 10-8
Home 11-4 6-8
Away 5-6 8-11
Neutral 4-3 0-0
Last 5 2-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.5 65.2
Avg Pts Against 68.6 67.2
Massey -3.7 (#242) -7.1 (#297)
Bradley-Terry -0.51 (#227) -0.74 (#243)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.72 (#224) -1.28 (#251)
RPI 0.485 (#199) 0.459 (#230)
Shooting & Four Factors SBU BUCK
FG% 41.8% 40.4%
3PT% 25.5% 31.9%
REB / G 32.0 31.0
OREB / G 11.0 6.8
AST / TO 0.92 0.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.1% 47.6%
TOV% 18.6% 20.4%
ORB% 32.6% 20.3%
FT Rate 24.0% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 52.7%
Opp TOV% 22.8% 17.7%
DRB% 63.6% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.5% 20.8%

Game Analysis

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