Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -2000 BUCK +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -10.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -7.0 (-1.0) | 131.2 (-3.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -6.8 (-0.8) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -6.3 (-0.3) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -8.1 (-2.1) | 130.9 (-2.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | SBU 64 – 47 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#242) | -7.1 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#227) | -0.74 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#224) | -1.28 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#199) | 0.459 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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