Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
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True Shooting Percentage

Scoring efficiency across 2s, 3s, and free throws combined.

Points ÷ (2 × (FGA + 0.475×FTA)). The denominator estimates true scoring attempts: 0.475×FTA converts free-throw trips into the shot attempts they replaced. Unlike FG% or eFG%, it rewards drawing fouls.

Higher is better  ·  league avg 54.8%  ·  as of 2026-04-07

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.67 (team entering with the better value wins 63% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 46.6% max 62.8% mean 54.8% std 2.8% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team True Shooting Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Bellarmine 62.8% +2.84 100 30
2 Belmont 62.5% +2.75 100 31
3 Saint Louis 62.2% +2.64 99 34
4 Miami (OH) 61.8% +2.49 99 31
5 Michigan 61.4% +2.36 99 40
6 Liberty 61.2% +2.28 99 31
7 Colorado State 61.2% +2.27 98 33
8 Cornell 60.9% +2.19 98 26
9 St. Thomas-Minnesota 60.7% +2.11 98 31
10 Akron 60.7% +2.11 98 33
11 Purdue 60.1% +1.90 97 39
12 Boston University 60.1% +1.89 97 33
13 Ohio State 60.1% +1.88 97 34
14 Iowa 59.9% +1.81 96 37
15 Tulsa 59.8% +1.78 96 36
16 Indiana 59.8% +1.78 96 32
17 Louisville 59.8% +1.77 96 35
18 Duke 59.7% +1.75 95 38
19 Arkansas 59.7% +1.75 95 37
20 Queens University 59.7% +1.73 95 34
21 Montana 59.6% +1.72 95 30
22 Vanderbilt 59.6% +1.69 94 36
23 Green Bay 59.3% +1.60 94 31
24 Utah State 59.2% +1.55 94 35
25 Alabama 59.0% +1.47 93 35
26 Yale 58.9% +1.45 93 29
27 Buffalo 58.8% +1.43 93 30
28 NC State 58.7% +1.38 93 34
29 UC Santa Barbara 58.7% +1.38 92 30
30 Providence 58.6% +1.36 92 33
31 Arizona 58.6% +1.35 92 39
32 East Tennessee State 58.6% +1.34 91 32
33 William & Mary 58.5% +1.32 91 30
34 Northern Colorado 58.5% +1.31 91 29
35 SMU 58.5% +1.30 91 34
36 Oklahoma 58.4% +1.29 90 37
37 Illinois 58.4% +1.28 90 37
38 High Point 58.4% +1.27 90 33
39 Texas Tech 58.3% +1.26 90 34
40 Iowa State 58.3% +1.24 89 37
41 Texas 58.3% +1.23 89 35
42 Nebraska 58.2% +1.20 89 35
43 Wisconsin 58.2% +1.20 88 35
44 Cleveland State 58.1% +1.18 88 30
45 Gonzaga 58.1% +1.15 88 35
46 Wright State 58.0% +1.13 88 33
47 Missouri 58.0% +1.12 87 33
48 Georgia 57.9% +1.09 87 33
49 UT Rio Grande Valley 57.9% +1.08 87 31
50 BYU 57.8% +1.07 87 35
51 Miami 57.8% +1.07 86 35
52 Murray State 57.8% +1.06 86 33
53 UMBC 57.7% +1.03 86 31
54 Michigan State 57.7% +1.02 85 35
55 Toledo 57.7% +1.01 85 32
56 Washington State 57.6% +1.01 85 31
57 Utah Valley 57.6% +0.99 85 31
58 VCU 57.6% +0.99 84 36
59 Virginia 57.6% +0.97 84 36
60 Chattanooga 57.6% +0.97 84 29
61 Marshall 57.5% +0.96 84 31
62 George Washington 57.5% +0.96 83 34
63 Denver 57.5% +0.94 83 29
64 Saint Mary's 57.4% +0.93 83 32
65 Florida 57.4% +0.92 82 35
66 Texas A&M 57.4% +0.91 82 34
67 Boise State 57.4% +0.90 82 30
68 Furman 57.3% +0.90 82 32
69 Eastern Washington 57.3% +0.88 81 32
70 LSU 57.3% +0.88 81 32
71 Auburn 57.3% +0.88 81 38
72 UCLA 57.1% +0.80 80 36
73 Delaware 57.0% +0.79 80 30
74 Robert Morris 57.0% +0.79 80 31
75 Santa Clara 57.0% +0.78 80 34
76 UConn 57.0% +0.77 79 40
77 Colorado 56.9% +0.76 79 33
78 North Carolina 56.9% +0.75 79 33
79 New Mexico 56.9% +0.74 79 36
80 California 56.9% +0.73 78 33
81 Navy 56.9% +0.73 78 32
82 Wake Forest 56.8% +0.72 78 35
83 Kentucky 56.8% +0.72 77 36
84 Mercer 56.8% +0.72 77 29
85 Baylor 56.8% +0.71 77 33
86 Lipscomb 56.8% +0.70 77 30
87 Oakland 56.7% +0.68 76 31
88 Youngstown State 56.7% +0.67 76 29
89 Montana State 56.7% +0.65 76 29
90 Harvard 56.7% +0.65 76 28
91 Austin Peay 56.7% +0.65 75 29
92 Minnesota 56.6% +0.65 75 33
93 Richmond 56.6% +0.65 75 31
94 Central Arkansas 56.6% +0.65 74 32
95 Charlotte 56.6% +0.63 74 33
96 Penn State 56.6% +0.63 74 32
97 George Mason 56.6% +0.63 74 32
98 Dayton 56.6% +0.62 73 37
99 Northern Kentucky 56.5% +0.60 73 31
100 San Diego State 56.5% +0.59 73 32
101 North Florida 56.4% +0.57 73 30
102 Illinois State 56.4% +0.57 72 35
103 UNLV 56.4% +0.57 72 34
104 Colgate 56.4% +0.56 72 31
105 Samford 56.4% +0.54 71 30
106 Le Moyne 56.3% +0.51 71 31
107 Creighton 56.2% +0.51 71 34
108 Utah Tech 56.2% +0.50 71 31
109 UC Davis 56.2% +0.49 70 31
110 James Madison 56.2% +0.48 70 32
111 Villanova 56.2% +0.48 70 33
112 Oklahoma State 56.2% +0.48 70 35
113 Hawai'i 56.2% +0.48 69 31
114 Clemson 56.1% +0.45 69 35
115 Vermont 56.0% +0.44 69 32
116 Grand Canyon 56.0% +0.43 68 32
117 North Dakota State 56.0% +0.43 68 32
118 Kent State 56.0% +0.42 68 32
119 Lehigh 56.0% +0.42 68 33
120 Cal Poly 56.0% +0.40 67 31
121 Columbia 55.9% +0.39 67 26
122 Duquesne 55.9% +0.37 67 31
123 Sacred Heart 55.9% +0.37 66 32
124 Charleston Southern 55.9% +0.37 66 29
125 Virginia Tech 55.8% +0.37 66 32
126 Northern Iowa 55.8% +0.36 66 35
127 Idaho State 55.8% +0.36 65 30
128 Dartmouth 55.8% +0.34 65 25
129 Stetson 55.8% +0.34 65 31
130 Wofford 55.7% +0.33 65 30
131 Massachusetts 55.7% +0.32 64 32
132 Kansas State 55.7% +0.32 64 32
133 Oregon State 55.7% +0.31 64 33
134 St. Bonaventure 55.7% +0.31 63 33
135 UNC Greensboro 55.7% +0.30 63 32
136 Omaha 55.7% +0.30 63 29
137 Sam Houston 55.7% +0.30 63 31
138 Arkansas State 55.7% +0.30 62 30
139 Georgia Southern 55.7% +0.29 62 35
140 UCF 55.6% +0.29 62 33
141 Wyoming 55.6% +0.28 62 32
142 Pacific 55.6% +0.28 61 31
143 Weber State 55.6% +0.28 61 30
144 Arizona State 55.6% +0.26 61 33
145 Howard 55.5% +0.25 60 31
146 Florida State 55.5% +0.25 60 33
147 Northwestern 55.5% +0.25 60 34
148 Bowling Green 55.5% +0.22 60 29
149 Troy 55.4% +0.21 59 32
150 Central Connecticut 55.4% +0.21 59 28
151 Utah 55.4% +0.20 59 32
152 Elon 55.4% +0.19 59 30
153 Purdue Fort Wayne 55.3% +0.18 58 29
154 Radford 55.3% +0.16 58 29
155 Notre Dame 55.2% +0.14 58 31
156 Long Island University 55.2% +0.14 57 35
157 UC San Diego 55.2% +0.13 57 32
158 Nevada 55.2% +0.13 57 37
159 Florida Atlantic 55.2% +0.13 57 31
160 South Alabama 55.2% +0.12 56 31
161 Eastern Kentucky 55.2% +0.12 56 30
162 Kansas 55.2% +0.12 56 35
163 Stanford 55.2% +0.12 55 33
164 North Carolina A&T 55.1% +0.11 55 28
165 Houston 55.1% +0.11 55 37
166 South Florida 55.1% +0.09 55 33
167 Hofstra 55.1% +0.09 54 33
168 St. John's 55.1% +0.08 54 37
169 Butler 55.0% +0.08 54 32
170 South Carolina 55.0% +0.08 54 32
171 Bradley 55.0% +0.07 53 33
172 Cal State Fullerton 55.0% +0.07 53 32
173 San Francisco 55.0% +0.06 53 32
174 Portland 55.0% +0.05 52 32
175 Indiana State 55.0% +0.05 52 30
176 Charleston 55.0% +0.04 52 31
177 South Dakota State 54.9% +0.04 52 29
178 American University 54.9% +0.03 51 30
179 Idaho 54.9% +0.03 51 33
180 South Dakota 54.9% +0.03 51 29
181 Northeastern 54.9% +0.03 51 31
182 Florida Gulf Coast 54.9% +0.02 50 32
183 USC 54.9% +0.02 50 31
184 Washington 54.9% +0.02 50 33
185 McNeese 54.8% +0.00 49 32
186 Syracuse 54.8% -0.00 49 32
187 Binghamton 54.8% -0.00 49 28
188 New Orleans 54.8% -0.01 49 33
189 Temple 54.8% -0.02 48 31
190 Tulane 54.8% -0.02 48 32
191 Xavier 54.7% -0.03 48 33
192 Tennessee 54.7% -0.06 48 37
193 Drake 54.6% -0.07 47 32
194 Iona 54.6% -0.07 47 32
195 Campbell 54.6% -0.08 47 32
196 Bethune-Cookman 54.6% -0.08 46 31
197 Siena 54.6% -0.08 46 35
198 Loyola Marymount 54.6% -0.08 46 31
199 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54.6% -0.09 46 30
200 Middle Tennessee 54.6% -0.09 45 29
201 Fresno State 54.6% -0.10 45 31
202 Central Michigan 54.6% -0.10 45 29
203 Ohio 54.5% -0.12 45 30
204 West Virginia 54.5% -0.12 44 35
205 Kennesaw State 54.5% -0.12 44 32
206 Missouri State 54.5% -0.12 44 31
207 Davidson 54.5% -0.12 43 32
208 IU Indianapolis 54.4% -0.15 43 30
209 Winthrop 54.4% -0.15 43 31
210 Northern Arizona 54.4% -0.15 43 29
211 Old Dominion 54.4% -0.15 42 32
212 Longwood 54.3% -0.18 42 29
213 UNC Asheville 54.3% -0.18 42 29
214 Merrimack 54.3% -0.19 41 34
215 Ole Miss 54.3% -0.19 41 35
216 Alabama A&M 54.3% -0.19 41 30
217 Presbyterian 54.3% -0.19 41 30
218 Stephen F. Austin 54.3% -0.20 40 32
219 San Diego 54.2% -0.21 40 31
220 Portland State 54.2% -0.23 40 28
221 Texas State 54.2% -0.23 40 30
222 Tennessee State 54.1% -0.26 39 30
223 Rhode Island 54.1% -0.26 39 32
224 Southern Utah 54.1% -0.26 39 29
225 Florida International 54.1% -0.28 38 29
226 Detroit Mercy 54.0% -0.30 38 30
227 TCU 54.0% -0.30 38 35
228 UNC Wilmington 53.9% -0.32 38 32
229 Cal State Northridge 53.9% -0.32 37 32
230 Georgetown 53.9% -0.33 37 34
231 Southern Miss 53.9% -0.33 37 33
232 Long Beach State 53.9% -0.33 37 30
233 Holy Cross 53.9% -0.34 36 31
234 Mississippi State 53.8% -0.37 36 32
235 Texas Southern 53.7% -0.40 36 28
236 Western Michigan 53.7% -0.40 35 29
237 Princeton 53.7% -0.40 35 28
238 UIC 53.7% -0.40 35 33
239 Oral Roberts 53.7% -0.42 35 30
240 Incarnate Word 53.7% -0.42 34 28
241 Western Carolina 53.6% -0.42 34 29
242 Monmouth 53.6% -0.45 34 33
243 Pittsburgh 53.5% -0.46 34 33
244 Jacksonville 53.5% -0.46 33 30
245 Morehead State 53.5% -0.46 33 30
246 Pennsylvania 53.5% -0.46 33 29
247 Loyola Maryland 53.5% -0.47 32 30
248 San José State 53.5% -0.47 32 32
249 Jacksonville State 53.5% -0.47 32 29
250 Southeast Missouri State 53.5% -0.49 32 30
251 Tennessee Tech 53.4% -0.51 31 28
252 Georgia Tech 53.4% -0.51 31 31
253 Mount St. Mary's 53.4% -0.51 31 31
254 Oregon 53.4% -0.53 30 32
255 Niagara 53.3% -0.53 30 29
256 Grambling 53.3% -0.53 30 31
257 Nicholls 53.3% -0.54 30 32
258 Stony Brook 53.3% -0.54 29 30
259 Northwestern State 53.3% -0.55 29 30
260 UAlbany 53.3% -0.56 29 29
261 Marquette 53.3% -0.56 29 32
262 Tarleton State 53.2% -0.56 28 28
263 Seattle U 53.2% -0.58 28 33
264 Drexel 53.2% -0.59 28 32
265 Wagner 53.2% -0.60 27 28
266 Norfolk State 53.1% -0.60 27 28
267 DePaul 53.1% -0.61 27 32
268 Houston Christian 53.1% -0.61 27 30
269 Cincinnati 53.1% -0.61 26 33
270 UC Riverside 53.1% -0.62 26 30
271 North Dakota 53.1% -0.63 26 32
272 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 53.0% -0.66 26 29
273 Southern 53.0% -0.67 25 31
274 UC Irvine 53.0% -0.67 25 33
275 Florida A&M 52.9% -0.67 25 29
276 Eastern Michigan 52.9% -0.67 24 30
277 Marist 52.9% -0.69 24 30
278 Manhattan 52.9% -0.70 24 31
279 Milwaukee 52.8% -0.71 24 31
280 Wichita State 52.8% -0.71 23 35
281 Sacramento State 52.8% -0.73 23 28
282 Loyola Chicago 52.8% -0.73 23 33
283 Evansville 52.8% -0.74 23 30
284 Western Kentucky 52.8% -0.74 22 30
285 App State 52.7% -0.75 22 30
286 Prairie View A&M 52.7% -0.75 22 33
287 Saint Joseph's 52.7% -0.76 21 34
288 New Mexico State 52.7% -0.76 21 29
289 West Georgia 52.6% -0.80 21 30
290 UMass Lowell 52.6% -0.81 21 30
291 Memphis 52.6% -0.81 20 32
292 Mercyhurst 52.5% -0.81 20 32
293 Bucknell 52.5% -0.83 20 33
294 Lafayette 52.4% -0.87 20 31
295 Maine 52.4% -0.88 19 31
296 UL Monroe 52.3% -0.92 19 30
297 Army 52.2% -0.92 19 30
298 North Carolina Central 52.2% -0.93 18 28
299 Maryland 52.2% -0.93 18 33
300 California Baptist 52.2% -0.94 18 34
301 UAB 52.2% -0.94 18 31
302 SIU Edwardsville 52.2% -0.95 17 29
303 East Texas A&M 52.2% -0.95 17 30
304 UT Martin 52.1% -0.97 17 30
305 The Citadel 52.1% -0.98 16 30
306 Southern Illinois 52.1% -0.98 16 31
307 Pepperdine 52.1% -0.98 16 30
308 UT Arlington 52.1% -0.99 16 30
309 Saint Francis 52.0% -1.00 15 29
310 New Haven 52.0% -1.01 15 28
311 Little Rock 52.0% -1.01 15 30
312 Abilene Christian 51.9% -1.05 15 30
313 Valparaiso 51.8% -1.06 14 32
314 UTEP 51.8% -1.08 14 28
315 Coastal Carolina 51.7% -1.10 14 31
316 Rice 51.7% -1.10 13 29
317 Rutgers 51.7% -1.10 13 34
318 Fairfield 51.7% -1.10 13 33
319 Seton Hall 51.7% -1.11 13 33
320 North Alabama 51.7% -1.12 12 28
321 Air Force 51.6% -1.17 12 32
322 Quinnipiac 51.6% -1.17 12 31
323 Lindenwood 51.5% -1.18 12 30
324 South Carolina Upstate 51.5% -1.20 11 29
325 Fordham 51.4% -1.21 11 29
326 Brown 51.4% -1.23 11 25
327 Morgan State 51.3% -1.26 10 27
328 Alcorn State 51.2% -1.30 10 32
329 VMI 51.2% -1.31 10 29
330 Maryland Eastern Shore 51.1% -1.32 10 30
331 Cal State Bakersfield 51.0% -1.36 9 30
332 Alabama State 51.0% -1.38 9 31
333 Bryant 50.9% -1.38 9 29
334 Lamar 50.9% -1.41 9 29
335 Northern Illinois 50.9% -1.41 8 28
336 Saint Peter's 50.8% -1.42 8 28
337 Jackson State 50.8% -1.43 8 33
338 Gardner-Webb 50.8% -1.43 7 30
339 SE Louisiana 50.8% -1.44 7 30
340 Fairleigh Dickinson 50.7% -1.46 7 29
341 East Carolina 50.7% -1.48 7 30
342 Ball State 50.7% -1.49 6 29
343 South Carolina State 50.7% -1.49 6 30
344 Louisiana Tech 50.6% -1.51 6 31
345 NJIT 50.5% -1.55 5 32
346 Hampton 50.5% -1.55 5 30
347 North Texas 50.4% -1.58 5 31
348 Louisiana 50.4% -1.60 5 33
349 Eastern Illinois 50.2% -1.66 4 30
350 Canisius 50.1% -1.67 4 30
351 La Salle 50.1% -1.69 4 31
352 Georgia State 50.0% -1.73 4 30
353 Boston College 49.9% -1.76 3 31
354 Stonehill 49.8% -1.79 3 31
355 Towson 49.8% -1.79 3 32
356 Coppin State 49.7% -1.83 2 30
357 Chicago State 49.5% -1.90 2 31
358 Mississippi Valley State 49.4% -1.95 2 32
359 New Hampshire 49.3% -1.97 2 28
360 Kansas City 48.7% -2.20 1 28
361 Western Illinois 48.3% -2.32 1 28
362 UTSA 48.3% -2.33 1 28
363 Southern Indiana 47.7% -2.55 1 28
364 Delaware State 47.1% -2.77 0 27
365 Rider 46.6% -2.92 0 28