Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 63.0 max 76.4 mean 68.9 std 2.5 (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Pace z Pctl GP
1 Cal Poly 76.4 +3.01 100 31
2 Cal State Northridge 75.6 +2.71 100 32
3 Cal State Fullerton 75.5 +2.63 99 32
4 IU Indianapolis 75.2 +2.55 99 30
5 Charleston Southern 75.1 +2.51 99 29
6 Oklahoma State 74.8 +2.37 99 35
7 Alabama 74.7 +2.34 98 35
8 Georgia 74.7 +2.34 98 33
9 South Florida 74.4 +2.20 98 33
10 Providence 74.2 +2.13 98 33
11 Kansas State 73.8 +1.98 97 32
12 Arkansas 73.8 +1.97 97 37
13 Radford 73.6 +1.88 97 29
14 William & Mary 73.6 +1.88 96 30
15 Texas A&M 73.5 +1.87 96 34
16 Arkansas State 73.4 +1.82 96 30
17 Kent State 73.4 +1.79 96 32
18 Lindenwood 73.0 +1.66 95 30
19 Hawai'i 73.0 +1.64 95 31
20 Prairie View A&M 72.7 +1.53 95 33
21 Massachusetts 72.7 +1.53 95 32
22 Cal State Bakersfield 72.6 +1.51 94 30
23 South Dakota 72.6 +1.50 94 29
24 Sacramento State 72.6 +1.50 94 28
25 USC 72.4 +1.42 93 31
26 Florida International 72.4 +1.40 93 29
27 Kennesaw State 72.4 +1.40 93 32
28 Southern 72.3 +1.38 93 31
29 Mississippi State 72.3 +1.37 92 32
30 Murray State 72.3 +1.36 92 33
31 North Florida 72.2 +1.35 92 30
32 Saint Louis 72.1 +1.29 91 34
33 Miami (OH) 72.1 +1.29 91 31
34 Florida 72.0 +1.27 91 35
35 Winthrop 72.0 +1.24 91 31
36 Cornell 72.0 +1.24 90 26
37 Memphis 71.9 +1.23 90 32
38 Georgia Tech 71.9 +1.20 90 31
39 UC Davis 71.8 +1.19 90 31
40 Texas Southern 71.8 +1.19 89 28
41 Florida State 71.8 +1.18 89 33
42 Georgia Southern 71.8 +1.18 89 35
43 Bethune-Cookman 71.8 +1.16 88 31
44 Xavier 71.7 +1.15 88 33
45 Kansas City 71.7 +1.15 88 28
46 Long Beach State 71.7 +1.14 88 30
47 High Point 71.7 +1.14 87 33
48 Michigan 71.7 +1.11 87 40
49 Arizona 71.6 +1.09 87 39
50 Jackson State 71.6 +1.08 87 33
51 UC Irvine 71.5 +1.07 86 33
52 Western Kentucky 71.5 +1.06 86 30
53 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 71.5 +1.06 86 30
54 Longwood 71.5 +1.05 85 29
55 Northern Kentucky 71.5 +1.03 85 31
56 Cleveland State 71.4 +1.00 85 30
57 UNLV 71.3 +0.98 85 34
58 UL Monroe 71.3 +0.97 84 30
59 Alabama State 71.3 +0.95 84 31
60 Northern Colorado 71.2 +0.95 84 29
61 UAB 71.2 +0.94 84 31
62 Southern Utah 71.2 +0.93 83 29
63 UCF 71.2 +0.92 83 33
64 Tarleton State 71.2 +0.92 83 28
65 Queens University 71.2 +0.92 82 34
66 Tennessee State 71.1 +0.90 82 30
67 Oakland 71.1 +0.90 82 31
68 SMU 71.1 +0.89 82 34
69 Butler 71.1 +0.88 81 32
70 Akron 71.1 +0.88 81 33
71 Florida Atlantic 71.1 +0.87 81 31
72 Montana 71.1 +0.87 80 30
73 Morgan State 71.1 +0.87 80 27
74 UC Riverside 71.1 +0.87 80 30
75 West Georgia 71.0 +0.87 80 30
76 Colorado 71.0 +0.85 79 33
77 Louisville 71.0 +0.84 79 35
78 Ohio 71.0 +0.84 79 30
79 Marquette 70.9 +0.81 79 32
80 Vanderbilt 70.9 +0.81 78 36
81 Old Dominion 70.8 +0.77 78 32
82 St. John's 70.8 +0.77 78 37
83 Lipscomb 70.8 +0.76 77 30
84 Gardner-Webb 70.8 +0.76 77 30
85 Weber State 70.7 +0.75 77 30
86 Marshall 70.7 +0.73 77 31
87 New Mexico 70.7 +0.72 76 36
88 Sam Houston 70.6 +0.71 76 31
89 San Diego State 70.6 +0.70 76 32
90 BYU 70.6 +0.69 76 35
91 Southern Illinois 70.6 +0.69 75 31
92 Florida A&M 70.6 +0.69 75 29
93 Arizona State 70.6 +0.69 75 33
94 Belmont 70.5 +0.67 74 31
95 Bowling Green 70.5 +0.65 74 29
96 LSU 70.5 +0.65 74 32
97 South Carolina Upstate 70.5 +0.64 74 29
98 Gonzaga 70.4 +0.62 73 35
99 Duquesne 70.4 +0.62 73 31
100 Quinnipiac 70.3 +0.57 73 31
101 Saint Francis 70.3 +0.57 73 29
102 South Carolina State 70.3 +0.56 72 30
103 NC State 70.2 +0.55 72 34
104 Utah Valley 70.2 +0.54 72 31
105 Central Arkansas 70.2 +0.54 71 32
106 Portland 70.2 +0.54 71 32
107 George Washington 70.2 +0.53 71 34
108 TCU 70.2 +0.53 71 35
109 Southeast Missouri State 70.2 +0.53 70 30
110 New Orleans 70.2 +0.53 70 33
111 Mississippi Valley State 70.2 +0.52 70 32
112 Wake Forest 70.2 +0.51 70 35
113 Southern Miss 70.1 +0.50 69 33
114 Austin Peay 70.1 +0.50 69 29
115 Tulsa 70.1 +0.49 69 36
116 East Carolina 70.0 +0.47 68 30
117 Pepperdine 70.0 +0.47 68 30
118 Campbell 70.0 +0.46 68 32
119 Wisconsin 69.9 +0.43 68 35
120 Northeastern 69.9 +0.42 67 31
121 Coastal Carolina 69.9 +0.41 67 31
122 Florida Gulf Coast 69.9 +0.41 67 32
123 Kentucky 69.9 +0.41 66 36
124 Utah Tech 69.9 +0.41 66 31
125 Bradley 69.9 +0.40 66 33
126 California 69.9 +0.39 66 33
127 Virginia Tech 69.8 +0.38 65 32
128 Eastern Kentucky 69.8 +0.36 65 30
129 Iona 69.8 +0.36 65 32
130 UC San Diego 69.7 +0.35 65 32
131 Indiana State 69.7 +0.35 64 30
132 Detroit Mercy 69.7 +0.35 64 30
133 North Dakota 69.7 +0.34 64 32
134 Oral Roberts 69.7 +0.34 63 30
135 Santa Clara 69.7 +0.34 63 34
136 Auburn 69.7 +0.34 63 38
137 St. Thomas-Minnesota 69.7 +0.33 63 31
138 Alcorn State 69.7 +0.33 62 32
139 San Diego 69.6 +0.31 62 31
140 Portland State 69.6 +0.31 62 28
141 Troy 69.6 +0.29 62 32
142 UTSA 69.6 +0.28 61 28
143 Dartmouth 69.6 +0.28 61 25
144 Howard 69.5 +0.25 61 31
145 Ole Miss 69.5 +0.25 60 35
146 Toledo 69.5 +0.23 60 32
147 VCU 69.5 +0.23 60 36
148 Mercer 69.5 +0.23 60 29
149 Eastern Washington 69.5 +0.23 59 32
150 North Carolina A&T 69.4 +0.22 59 28
151 Denver 69.4 +0.22 59 29
152 Cincinnati 69.4 +0.22 59 33
153 Idaho 69.4 +0.21 58 33
154 Oklahoma 69.4 +0.21 58 37
155 Grambling 69.4 +0.20 58 31
156 Fresno State 69.4 +0.19 57 31
157 UNC Greensboro 69.3 +0.19 57 32
158 Pennsylvania 69.3 +0.19 57 29
159 Coppin State 69.3 +0.18 57 30
160 Western Michigan 69.3 +0.18 56 29
161 Baylor 69.3 +0.18 56 33
162 Western Carolina 69.3 +0.17 56 29
163 Samford 69.3 +0.17 55 30
164 Wichita State 69.3 +0.16 55 35
165 Loyola Maryland 69.3 +0.16 55 30
166 Grand Canyon 69.3 +0.16 55 32
167 Abilene Christian 69.2 +0.14 54 30
168 Le Moyne 69.2 +0.13 54 31
169 North Dakota State 69.2 +0.12 54 32
170 Miami 69.2 +0.11 54 35
171 Wright State 69.1 +0.11 53 33
172 Norfolk State 69.1 +0.10 53 28
173 Syracuse 69.1 +0.10 53 32
174 Milwaukee 69.1 +0.08 52 31
175 Seattle U 69.1 +0.08 52 33
176 Georgia State 69.1 +0.08 52 30
177 Southern Indiana 69.1 +0.07 52 28
178 Elon 69.0 +0.06 51 30
179 Purdue Fort Wayne 69.0 +0.06 51 29
180 North Carolina 69.0 +0.06 51 33
181 Northern Illinois 69.0 +0.05 51 28
182 Manhattan 69.0 +0.03 50 31
183 Washington State 68.9 +0.02 50 31
184 Omaha 68.9 +0.02 50 29
185 Loyola Marymount 68.9 +0.01 49 31
186 New Hampshire 68.9 +0.01 49 28
187 Creighton 68.9 +0.01 49 34
188 Youngstown State 68.9 +0.01 49 29
189 UMass Lowell 68.9 +0.00 48 30
190 Eastern Michigan 68.9 +0.00 48 30
191 Missouri 68.8 -0.01 48 33
192 Charleston 68.8 -0.02 48 31
193 Kansas 68.8 -0.02 47 35
194 Richmond 68.8 -0.04 47 31
195 South Carolina 68.8 -0.04 47 32
196 Washington 68.7 -0.05 46 33
197 Lehigh 68.7 -0.06 46 33
198 Wofford 68.7 -0.08 46 30
199 Texas 68.6 -0.09 46 35
200 Army 68.6 -0.09 45 30
201 Sacred Heart 68.6 -0.09 45 32
202 Colgate 68.6 -0.13 45 31
203 East Texas A&M 68.5 -0.15 45 30
204 Iowa State 68.5 -0.16 44 37
205 Tulane 68.5 -0.16 44 32
206 Long Island University 68.5 -0.17 44 35
207 Utah State 68.5 -0.17 43 35
208 Saint Joseph's 68.4 -0.17 43 34
209 Drake 68.4 -0.20 43 32
210 Nicholls 68.3 -0.22 43 32
211 Utah 68.3 -0.22 42 32
212 Central Michigan 68.3 -0.23 42 29
213 Dayton 68.3 -0.23 42 37
214 Tennessee Tech 68.3 -0.24 41 28
215 Boise State 68.3 -0.24 41 30
216 Middle Tennessee 68.3 -0.24 41 29
217 California Baptist 68.2 -0.25 41 34
218 UC Santa Barbara 68.2 -0.27 40 30
219 Buffalo 68.2 -0.27 40 30
220 South Dakota State 68.2 -0.28 40 29
221 Stetson 68.2 -0.29 40 31
222 Texas Tech 68.1 -0.29 39 34
223 Texas State 68.1 -0.29 39 30
224 New Mexico State 68.1 -0.29 39 29
225 Stanford 68.1 -0.30 38 33
226 Tennessee 68.1 -0.31 38 37
227 UIC 68.1 -0.31 38 33
228 St. Bonaventure 68.0 -0.33 38 33
229 Brown 68.0 -0.35 37 25
230 UNC Asheville 68.0 -0.36 37 29
231 Mount St. Mary's 68.0 -0.37 37 31
232 Evansville 67.9 -0.37 37 30
233 Montana State 67.9 -0.38 36 29
234 Monmouth 67.9 -0.38 36 33
235 NJIT 67.9 -0.39 36 32
236 Rice 67.9 -0.39 35 29
237 Columbia 67.8 -0.43 35 26
238 Georgetown 67.7 -0.45 35 34
239 Notre Dame 67.7 -0.45 35 31
240 DePaul 67.7 -0.46 34 32
241 Illinois State 67.7 -0.47 34 35
242 Bucknell 67.7 -0.48 34 33
243 Nevada 67.7 -0.49 34 37
244 Stonehill 67.6 -0.49 33 31
245 North Texas 67.6 -0.50 33 31
246 Western Illinois 67.6 -0.51 33 28
247 Virginia 67.6 -0.51 32 36
248 Little Rock 67.6 -0.51 32 30
249 Chattanooga 67.6 -0.52 32 29
250 Alabama A&M 67.6 -0.52 32 30
251 VMI 67.6 -0.52 31 29
252 Wyoming 67.6 -0.53 31 32
253 James Madison 67.5 -0.53 31 32
254 Rutgers 67.5 -0.56 30 34
255 Penn State 67.5 -0.56 30 32
256 Robert Morris 67.5 -0.56 30 31
257 Boston College 67.4 -0.57 30 31
258 Valparaiso 67.4 -0.59 29 32
259 Air Force 67.4 -0.59 29 32
260 Indiana 67.4 -0.59 29 32
261 Missouri State 67.4 -0.60 29 31
262 Morehead State 67.4 -0.60 28 30
263 Fairfield 67.3 -0.61 28 33
264 Michigan State 67.3 -0.62 28 35
265 UT Arlington 67.3 -0.62 27 30
266 Idaho State 67.3 -0.63 27 30
267 Nebraska 67.3 -0.64 27 35
268 UT Rio Grande Valley 67.3 -0.64 27 31
269 Stony Brook 67.3 -0.64 26 30
270 Villanova 67.3 -0.65 26 33
271 San Francisco 67.2 -0.65 26 32
272 Oregon State 67.2 -0.66 26 33
273 Furman 67.2 -0.67 25 32
274 Lafayette 67.2 -0.68 25 31
275 Ohio State 67.2 -0.69 25 34
276 McNeese 67.1 -0.70 24 32
277 South Alabama 67.1 -0.73 24 31
278 UMBC 67.1 -0.73 24 31
279 East Tennessee State 67.0 -0.73 24 32
280 Eastern Illinois 67.0 -0.75 23 30
281 Maryland 66.9 -0.77 23 33
282 North Carolina Central 66.9 -0.77 23 28
283 Presbyterian 66.9 -0.79 23 30
284 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 66.9 -0.79 22 29
285 Duke 66.8 -0.82 22 38
286 Marist 66.8 -0.84 22 30
287 Oregon 66.8 -0.85 21 32
288 Bellarmine 66.7 -0.87 21 30
289 American University 66.7 -0.88 21 30
290 Delaware State 66.7 -0.88 21 27
291 UTEP 66.6 -0.91 20 28
292 Illinois 66.5 -0.93 20 37
293 Rhode Island 66.5 -0.94 20 32
294 Binghamton 66.5 -0.94 20 28
295 Hampton 66.5 -0.94 19 30
296 Seton Hall 66.5 -0.96 19 33
297 UCLA 66.5 -0.97 19 36
298 Stephen F. Austin 66.4 -0.97 18 32
299 Wagner 66.4 -0.98 18 28
300 La Salle 66.4 -0.98 18 31
301 Yale 66.4 -0.99 18 29
302 Jacksonville State 66.3 -1.02 17 29
303 UT Martin 66.2 -1.06 17 30
304 North Alabama 66.2 -1.08 17 28
305 Saint Mary's 66.2 -1.09 16 32
306 SIU Edwardsville 66.1 -1.09 16 29
307 UConn 66.1 -1.09 16 40
308 Saint Peter's 66.1 -1.10 16 28
309 Loyola Chicago 66.1 -1.11 15 33
310 UNC Wilmington 66.1 -1.11 15 32
311 Lamar 66.1 -1.12 15 29
312 Pacific 66.1 -1.12 15 31
313 The Citadel 66.1 -1.12 14 30
314 Chicago State 66.0 -1.14 14 31
315 San José State 66.0 -1.15 14 32
316 Navy 65.9 -1.17 13 32
317 Ball State 65.9 -1.19 13 29
318 SE Louisiana 65.9 -1.19 13 30
319 Hofstra 65.9 -1.20 13 33
320 Holy Cross 65.8 -1.23 12 31
321 Maryland Eastern Shore 65.8 -1.23 12 30
322 Jacksonville 65.7 -1.26 12 30
323 Rider 65.7 -1.27 12 28
324 UAlbany 65.6 -1.29 11 29
325 Temple 65.6 -1.30 11 31
326 Clemson 65.6 -1.30 11 35
327 Mercyhurst 65.6 -1.30 10 32
328 Northwestern 65.6 -1.33 10 34
329 Central Connecticut 65.5 -1.34 10 28
330 Northern Arizona 65.5 -1.35 10 29
331 Charlotte 65.5 -1.35 9 33
332 Louisiana Tech 65.5 -1.37 9 31
333 Purdue 65.4 -1.37 9 39
334 Northwestern State 65.4 -1.38 9 30
335 Incarnate Word 65.4 -1.39 8 28
336 West Virginia 65.3 -1.45 8 35
337 Delaware 65.3 -1.45 8 30
338 Bryant 65.2 -1.46 7 29
339 Green Bay 65.2 -1.46 7 31
340 Boston University 65.2 -1.46 7 33
341 Drexel 65.2 -1.47 7 32
342 Vermont 65.2 -1.48 6 32
343 Liberty 65.1 -1.52 6 31
344 Princeton 65.0 -1.53 6 28
345 Pittsburgh 65.0 -1.54 5 33
346 Houston 65.0 -1.56 5 37
347 Davidson 65.0 -1.57 5 32
348 Maine 64.9 -1.60 5 31
349 Fordham 64.8 -1.63 4 29
350 Harvard 64.7 -1.65 4 28
351 George Mason 64.7 -1.65 4 32
352 Houston Christian 64.7 -1.67 4 30
353 Canisius 64.6 -1.71 3 30
354 Siena 64.4 -1.77 3 35
355 Colorado State 64.4 -1.78 3 33
356 Fairleigh Dickinson 64.4 -1.78 2 29
357 Merrimack 64.4 -1.79 2 34
358 App State 64.4 -1.81 2 30
359 Louisiana 64.1 -1.91 2 33
360 Towson 64.0 -1.93 1 32
361 Northern Iowa 63.9 -2.00 1 35
362 Minnesota 63.6 -2.11 1 33
363 New Haven 63.5 -2.14 1 28
364 Niagara 63.4 -2.21 0 29
365 Iowa 63.0 -2.36 0 37