I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.59 (team entering with the better value wins 57% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 5.7 max 15.9 mean 10.6 std 1.6 (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Offensive Rebounds Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Florida 15.9 +3.26 100 35
2 Tennessee 15.9 +3.24 100 37
3 South Florida 15.6 +3.07 99 33
4 Wichita State 14.6 +2.47 99 35
5 Arkansas State 14.4 +2.35 99 30
6 California Baptist 13.8 +1.98 99 34
7 Rice 13.8 +1.94 98 29
8 Saint Peter's 13.8 +1.93 98 28
9 Fairfield 13.7 +1.90 98 33
10 Winthrop 13.5 +1.81 98 31
11 Towson 13.4 +1.70 97 32
12 Illinois 13.4 +1.69 97 37
13 Kennesaw State 13.3 +1.66 97 32
14 Western Carolina 13.3 +1.64 96 29
15 Virginia 13.2 +1.59 96 36
16 Louisiana Tech 13.2 +1.57 96 31
17 UT Martin 13.1 +1.55 96 30
18 Kent State 13.1 +1.55 95 32
19 Sam Houston 13.1 +1.53 95 31
20 Memphis 13.1 +1.53 95 32
21 Georgia 13.1 +1.53 95 33
22 Lamar 13.1 +1.52 94 29
23 Auburn 13.1 +1.51 94 38
24 Santa Clara 13.0 +1.49 94 34
25 Arizona 13.0 +1.46 93 39
26 UNC Wilmington 13.0 +1.45 93 32
27 St. John's 12.9 +1.42 93 37
28 Southern Indiana 12.8 +1.36 93 28
29 Tennessee State 12.8 +1.35 92 30
30 Houston 12.8 +1.34 92 37
31 Lindenwood 12.8 +1.33 92 30
32 UCF 12.8 +1.32 91 33
33 UIC 12.7 +1.31 91 33
34 Robert Morris 12.7 +1.28 91 31
35 UAB 12.6 +1.26 91 31
36 Baylor 12.6 +1.25 90 33
37 George Washington 12.6 +1.24 90 34
38 Western Kentucky 12.6 +1.23 90 30
39 Rider 12.6 +1.21 90 28
40 Quinnipiac 12.5 +1.20 89 31
41 Florida International 12.5 +1.18 89 29
42 Alabama 12.5 +1.16 89 35
43 Seton Hall 12.5 +1.16 88 33
44 Michigan State 12.4 +1.12 88 35
45 East Carolina 12.4 +1.11 88 30
46 Miami 12.4 +1.11 88 35
47 Duke 12.4 +1.10 87 38
48 Milwaukee 12.4 +1.10 87 31
49 Butler 12.4 +1.09 87 32
50 Troy 12.4 +1.09 87 32
51 TCU 12.4 +1.09 86 35
52 McNeese 12.3 +1.07 86 32
53 North Texas 12.3 +1.06 86 31
54 Saint Mary's 12.3 +1.03 85 32
55 SMU 12.3 +1.02 85 34
56 La Salle 12.3 +1.02 85 31
57 BYU 12.3 +1.02 85 35
58 Longwood 12.2 +1.01 84 29
59 Morehead State 12.2 +1.00 84 30
60 Columbia 12.2 +1.00 84 26
61 Hofstra 12.2 +0.99 84 33
62 Hampton 12.2 +0.98 83 30
63 Cal State Northridge 12.2 +0.98 83 32
64 Maryland 12.2 +0.97 83 33
65 Alabama State 12.1 +0.94 82 31
66 Fordham 12.1 +0.92 82 29
67 New Mexico State 12.1 +0.92 82 29
68 Eastern Kentucky 12.1 +0.92 82 30
69 New Orleans 12.1 +0.92 81 33
70 Texas A&M 12.0 +0.88 81 34
71 Gonzaga 12.0 +0.86 81 35
72 Howard 12.0 +0.86 80 31
73 Stephen F. Austin 12.0 +0.86 80 32
74 UTSA 12.0 +0.86 80 28
75 Valparaiso 12.0 +0.84 80 32
76 Detroit Mercy 12.0 +0.84 79 30
77 Washington 11.9 +0.79 79 33
78 UConn 11.9 +0.78 79 40
79 West Georgia 11.9 +0.78 79 30
80 Texas 11.9 +0.77 78 35
81 Pittsburgh 11.8 +0.77 78 33
82 Iowa State 11.8 +0.76 78 37
83 Campbell 11.8 +0.75 77 32
84 Wyoming 11.8 +0.75 77 32
85 Massachusetts 11.8 +0.73 77 32
86 St. Bonaventure 11.7 +0.69 77 33
87 North Dakota State 11.7 +0.69 76 32
88 Northern Kentucky 11.7 +0.66 76 31
89 Southern 11.7 +0.66 76 31
90 Kentucky 11.7 +0.66 76 36
91 UMass Lowell 11.7 +0.66 75 30
92 UT Arlington 11.7 +0.66 75 30
93 Pacific 11.6 +0.62 75 31
94 Murray State 11.6 +0.60 74 33
95 Elon 11.5 +0.58 74 30
96 Florida State 11.5 +0.56 74 33
97 High Point 11.5 +0.56 74 33
98 Villanova 11.5 +0.55 73 33
99 Fairleigh Dickinson 11.5 +0.54 73 29
100 Texas Tech 11.5 +0.54 73 34
101 Missouri 11.5 +0.53 73 33
102 Mercer 11.4 +0.52 72 29
103 Wagner 11.4 +0.51 72 28
104 Morgan State 11.4 +0.50 72 27
105 Stanford 11.4 +0.49 71 33
106 Long Island University 11.4 +0.48 71 35
107 Cal State Bakersfield 11.4 +0.47 71 30
108 Jackson State 11.4 +0.47 71 33
109 Florida Atlantic 11.4 +0.47 70 31
110 Saint Joseph's 11.4 +0.47 70 34
111 Mississippi State 11.3 +0.46 70 32
112 Oklahoma State 11.3 +0.46 70 35
113 Utah Valley 11.3 +0.45 69 31
114 Louisville 11.3 +0.44 69 35
115 Charleston Southern 11.3 +0.44 69 29
116 Oklahoma 11.3 +0.43 68 37
117 Norfolk State 11.3 +0.42 68 28
118 Purdue 11.3 +0.42 68 39
119 Radford 11.3 +0.42 68 29
120 Southern Miss 11.3 +0.42 67 33
121 App State 11.3 +0.41 67 30
122 Cal Poly 11.3 +0.41 67 31
123 Southern Illinois 11.3 +0.41 66 31
124 Georgetown 11.2 +0.39 66 34
125 Weber State 11.2 +0.39 66 30
126 LSU 11.2 +0.38 66 32
127 Nevada 11.2 +0.38 65 37
128 Texas State 11.2 +0.37 65 30
129 Florida Gulf Coast 11.2 +0.36 65 32
130 Oregon 11.2 +0.36 65 32
131 Marshall 11.2 +0.35 64 31
132 UC Irvine 11.2 +0.34 64 33
133 Cincinnati 11.1 +0.32 64 33
134 Army 11.1 +0.31 63 30
135 Little Rock 11.1 +0.31 63 30
136 Marquette 11.1 +0.31 63 32
137 Akron 11.1 +0.30 63 33
138 VCU 11.1 +0.30 62 36
139 Incarnate Word 11.1 +0.29 62 28
140 Notre Dame 11.1 +0.29 62 31
141 USC 11.1 +0.29 62 31
142 Tulsa 11.1 +0.28 61 36
143 Missouri State 11.0 +0.27 61 31
144 Oakland 11.0 +0.27 61 31
145 Virginia Tech 11.0 +0.27 60 32
146 Charlotte 11.0 +0.27 60 33
147 Pennsylvania 11.0 +0.25 60 29
148 Providence 11.0 +0.25 60 33
149 Yale 11.0 +0.25 59 29
150 South Carolina State 11.0 +0.23 59 30
151 Monmouth 10.9 +0.21 59 33
152 UAlbany 10.9 +0.21 59 29
153 North Alabama 10.9 +0.21 58 28
154 Arkansas 10.9 +0.20 58 37
155 Wright State 10.9 +0.17 58 33
156 IU Indianapolis 10.9 +0.17 57 30
157 South Carolina Upstate 10.9 +0.16 57 29
158 Northern Illinois 10.9 +0.16 57 28
159 Tarleton State 10.9 +0.16 57 28
160 San Francisco 10.8 +0.15 56 32
161 Hawai'i 10.8 +0.15 56 31
162 Coppin State 10.8 +0.15 56 30
163 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 10.8 +0.14 55 29
164 Western Michigan 10.8 +0.14 55 29
165 Michigan 10.8 +0.14 55 40
166 New Mexico 10.8 +0.13 55 36
167 North Carolina 10.8 +0.12 54 33
168 Mount St. Mary's 10.8 +0.11 54 31
169 Utah State 10.8 +0.11 54 35
170 Middle Tennessee 10.8 +0.10 54 29
171 Georgia Southern 10.7 +0.09 53 35
172 Wofford 10.7 +0.09 53 30
173 Florida A&M 10.7 +0.08 53 29
174 Boston College 10.7 +0.07 52 31
175 Rutgers 10.7 +0.07 52 34
176 Presbyterian 10.7 +0.07 52 30
177 Abilene Christian 10.7 +0.05 52 30
178 Vanderbilt 10.7 +0.05 51 36
179 Georgia Tech 10.6 +0.03 51 31
180 South Dakota State 10.6 +0.02 51 29
181 Tennessee Tech 10.6 +0.01 51 28
182 Rhode Island 10.6 +0.00 50 32
183 North Carolina A&T 10.6 -0.01 50 28
184 Boise State 10.6 -0.02 50 30
185 Drexel 10.6 -0.02 49 32
186 Duquesne 10.5 -0.03 49 31
187 Idaho State 10.5 -0.04 49 30
188 Maryland Eastern Shore 10.5 -0.04 49 30
189 James Madison 10.5 -0.06 48 32
190 UNLV 10.5 -0.06 48 34
191 Jacksonville 10.5 -0.08 48 30
192 Georgia State 10.4 -0.10 48 30
193 Portland State 10.4 -0.10 47 28
194 SIU Edwardsville 10.4 -0.11 47 29
195 Central Arkansas 10.4 -0.11 47 32
196 Kansas State 10.4 -0.11 46 32
197 Charleston 10.4 -0.13 46 31
198 West Virginia 10.4 -0.14 46 35
199 Pepperdine 10.4 -0.14 46 30
200 Bethune-Cookman 10.4 -0.15 45 31
201 Austin Peay 10.3 -0.15 45 29
202 Manhattan 10.3 -0.17 45 31
203 North Carolina Central 10.3 -0.17 45 28
204 Brown 10.3 -0.17 44 25
205 Grand Canyon 10.3 -0.17 44 32
206 Loyola Chicago 10.3 -0.18 44 33
207 DePaul 10.3 -0.19 43 32
208 Syracuse 10.3 -0.19 43 32
209 Denver 10.3 -0.19 43 29
210 Jacksonville State 10.3 -0.19 43 29
211 Youngstown State 10.3 -0.19 42 29
212 Idaho 10.3 -0.20 42 33
213 Coastal Carolina 10.3 -0.21 42 31
214 Wisconsin 10.3 -0.21 41 35
215 Navy 10.3 -0.21 41 32
216 Cornell 10.2 -0.22 41 26
217 Arizona State 10.2 -0.23 41 33
218 South Dakota 10.2 -0.24 40 29
219 Queens University 10.2 -0.24 40 34
220 Siena 10.2 -0.24 40 35
221 Kansas City 10.2 -0.25 40 28
222 Canisius 10.2 -0.26 39 30
223 Chicago State 10.2 -0.26 39 31
224 Texas Southern 10.1 -0.28 39 28
225 Stony Brook 10.1 -0.28 38 30
226 San José State 10.1 -0.29 38 32
227 Wake Forest 10.1 -0.29 38 35
228 Ohio 10.1 -0.30 38 30
229 The Citadel 10.1 -0.30 37 30
230 Eastern Washington 10.1 -0.31 37 32
231 North Dakota 10.1 -0.31 37 32
232 Kansas 10.1 -0.31 37 35
233 Southeast Missouri State 10.1 -0.32 36 30
234 UC Santa Barbara 10.1 -0.32 36 30
235 Grambling 10.1 -0.32 36 31
236 Temple 10.1 -0.32 35 31
237 UCLA 10.1 -0.33 35 36
238 Loyola Maryland 10.0 -0.34 35 30
239 SE Louisiana 10.0 -0.34 35 30
240 Furman 10.0 -0.34 34 32
241 Nicholls 10.0 -0.34 34 32
242 Utah 10.0 -0.34 34 32
243 Ole Miss 10.0 -0.35 34 35
244 Colorado 10.0 -0.36 33 33
245 Saint Francis 10.0 -0.36 33 29
246 Southern Utah 10.0 -0.36 33 29
247 UNC Asheville 10.0 -0.36 32 29
248 Xavier 10.0 -0.38 32 33
249 Toledo 10.0 -0.38 32 32
250 Marist 10.0 -0.38 32 30
251 Bowling Green 10.0 -0.38 31 29
252 Bradley 9.9 -0.40 31 33
253 UNC Greensboro 9.9 -0.40 31 32
254 Houston Christian 9.9 -0.40 30 30
255 Oral Roberts 9.9 -0.40 30 30
256 Iona 9.9 -0.42 30 32
257 Sacred Heart 9.9 -0.42 30 32
258 San Diego 9.9 -0.42 29 31
259 New Hampshire 9.9 -0.43 29 28
260 UC Riverside 9.9 -0.44 29 30
261 George Mason 9.8 -0.46 29 32
262 Ball State 9.8 -0.47 28 29
263 Central Michigan 9.8 -0.47 28 29
264 Saint Louis 9.8 -0.47 28 34
265 Louisiana 9.8 -0.47 27 33
266 Prairie View A&M 9.8 -0.47 27 33
267 Delaware State 9.8 -0.50 27 27
268 Stonehill 9.8 -0.50 27 31
269 Eastern Illinois 9.8 -0.51 26 30
270 NC State 9.8 -0.51 26 34
271 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 9.7 -0.53 26 30
272 Eastern Michigan 9.7 -0.53 26 30
273 VMI 9.7 -0.53 25 29
274 Western Illinois 9.7 -0.54 25 28
275 San Diego State 9.7 -0.55 25 32
276 Washington State 9.6 -0.60 24 31
277 Bryant 9.6 -0.62 24 29
278 Davidson 9.6 -0.63 24 32
279 Northeastern 9.5 -0.64 24 31
280 Fresno State 9.5 -0.66 23 31
281 Drake 9.5 -0.67 23 32
282 Sacramento State 9.5 -0.67 23 28
283 NJIT 9.4 -0.71 23 32
284 Alcorn State 9.4 -0.73 22 32
285 Utah Tech 9.4 -0.74 22 31
286 Old Dominion 9.3 -0.76 22 32
287 Clemson 9.3 -0.78 21 35
288 Cal State Fullerton 9.3 -0.78 21 32
289 UL Monroe 9.3 -0.79 21 30
290 Illinois State 9.3 -0.80 21 35
291 South Carolina 9.3 -0.82 20 32
292 Creighton 9.2 -0.83 20 34
293 Alabama A&M 9.2 -0.83 20 30
294 Ohio State 9.2 -0.85 20 34
295 Bucknell 9.2 -0.86 19 33
296 American University 9.2 -0.87 19 30
297 Long Beach State 9.2 -0.87 19 30
298 Princeton 9.1 -0.89 18 28
299 UTEP 9.1 -0.89 18 28
300 Lafayette 9.1 -0.90 18 31
301 UC San Diego 9.1 -0.90 18 32
302 Mississippi Valley State 9.1 -0.92 17 32
303 Northwestern 9.1 -0.92 17 34
304 Montana State 9.0 -0.95 17 29
305 East Texas A&M 9.0 -0.95 16 30
306 Loyola Marymount 9.0 -0.96 16 31
307 UT Rio Grande Valley 9.0 -0.96 16 31
308 Cleveland State 9.0 -0.98 16 30
309 Mercyhurst 9.0 -0.98 15 32
310 Portland 9.0 -0.98 15 32
311 Lipscomb 9.0 -1.00 15 30
312 Samford 9.0 -1.00 15 30
313 Northern Colorado 9.0 -1.00 14 29
314 California 8.9 -1.01 14 33
315 Stetson 8.9 -1.01 14 31
316 Indiana State 8.9 -1.02 13 30
317 East Tennessee State 8.9 -1.03 13 32
318 Buffalo 8.9 -1.04 13 30
319 Nebraska 8.9 -1.05 13 35
320 Belmont 8.8 -1.07 12 31
321 Colgate 8.8 -1.07 12 31
322 Dayton 8.8 -1.07 12 37
323 Iowa 8.8 -1.07 12 37
324 Central Connecticut 8.8 -1.08 11 28
325 Colorado State 8.8 -1.12 11 33
326 North Florida 8.7 -1.14 11 30
327 UC Davis 8.6 -1.19 10 31
328 Oregon State 8.6 -1.22 10 33
329 William & Mary 8.6 -1.24 10 30
330 Omaha 8.6 -1.25 10 29
331 Vermont 8.5 -1.26 9 32
332 Richmond 8.5 -1.29 9 31
333 Northwestern State 8.4 -1.32 9 30
334 Minnesota 8.4 -1.33 9 33
335 South Alabama 8.4 -1.33 8 31
336 Gardner-Webb 8.4 -1.36 8 30
337 Penn State 8.3 -1.40 8 32
338 Boston University 8.3 -1.40 7 33
339 Harvard 8.3 -1.43 7 28
340 Indiana 8.2 -1.45 7 32
341 Le Moyne 8.2 -1.47 7 31
342 Miami (OH) 8.2 -1.47 6 31
343 Seattle U 8.2 -1.48 6 33
344 Merrimack 8.1 -1.52 6 34
345 Dartmouth 8.1 -1.54 5 25
346 UMBC 7.9 -1.63 5 31
347 Purdue Fort Wayne 7.9 -1.67 5 29
348 Tulane 7.8 -1.68 5 32
349 Niagara 7.8 -1.71 4 29
350 Northern Arizona 7.6 -1.84 4 29
351 Lehigh 7.6 -1.85 4 33
352 Evansville 7.4 -1.93 4 30
353 Green Bay 7.4 -1.98 3 31
354 Holy Cross 7.1 -2.12 3 31
355 St. Thomas-Minnesota 7.1 -2.16 3 31
356 Air Force 7.0 -2.18 2 32
357 New Haven 6.9 -2.24 2 28
358 Chattanooga 6.9 -2.26 2 29
359 Northern Iowa 6.9 -2.29 2 35
360 Binghamton 6.5 -2.53 1 28
361 Maine 6.3 -2.63 1 31
362 Bellarmine 6.3 -2.65 1 30
363 Delaware 6.2 -2.67 1 30
364 Montana 6.2 -2.67 0 30
365 Liberty 5.7 -3.01 0 31