You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Opponent Turnover Rate

Share of opponent possessions a defense forces into turnovers.

Opponents' season turnovers ÷ opponents' season possessions. Possessions aren't in the box score, so they're estimated as FGA − OffReb + TO + 0.475×FTA (the standard estimator).

Higher is better  ·  league avg 16.7%  ·  as of 2026-04-07

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.58 (team entering with the better value wins 56% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 11.6% max 24.4% mean 16.7% std 2.1% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Turnover Rate z Pctl GP
1 McNeese 24.4% +3.71 100 32
2 Tarleton State 23.5% +3.25 100 28
3 Abilene Christian 23.4% +3.21 99 30
4 Iowa State 22.6% +2.85 99 37
5 Seton Hall 21.5% +2.31 99 33
6 North Texas 21.3% +2.22 99 31
7 Utah Valley 21.3% +2.21 98 31
8 High Point 21.2% +2.18 98 33
9 Seattle U 21.2% +2.16 98 33
10 Rhode Island 21.2% +2.14 98 32
11 Dayton 21.0% +2.04 97 37
12 Grambling 20.8% +1.96 97 31
13 Howard 20.7% +1.92 97 31
14 Houston 20.7% +1.91 96 37
15 Nicholls 20.5% +1.83 96 32
16 Merrimack 20.4% +1.78 96 34
17 Iowa 20.3% +1.71 96 37
18 Utah State 20.2% +1.70 95 35
19 San Diego State 20.2% +1.70 95 32
20 Santa Clara 20.1% +1.64 95 34
21 Chicago State 20.1% +1.61 95 31
22 Florida International 20.0% +1.59 94 29
23 Saint Peter's 20.0% +1.59 94 28
24 UT Martin 20.0% +1.58 94 30
25 Gonzaga 19.9% +1.55 93 35
26 Tennessee State 19.8% +1.50 93 30
27 North Carolina Central 19.8% +1.48 93 28
28 Monmouth 19.8% +1.48 93 33
29 UC Davis 19.8% +1.47 92 31
30 UIC 19.7% +1.45 92 33
31 Longwood 19.7% +1.45 92 29
32 Delaware State 19.6% +1.37 91 27
33 TCU 19.5% +1.36 91 35
34 Cal State Fullerton 19.4% +1.29 91 32
35 Marist 19.4% +1.28 91 30
36 North Dakota 19.3% +1.27 90 32
37 Eastern Illinois 19.3% +1.25 90 30
38 Maine 19.3% +1.24 90 31
39 Marquette 19.3% +1.24 90 32
40 American University 19.2% +1.21 89 30
41 IU Indianapolis 19.2% +1.20 89 30
42 South Florida 19.2% +1.18 89 33
43 Florida A&M 19.1% +1.17 88 29
44 Purdue Fort Wayne 19.1% +1.17 88 29
45 Central Arkansas 19.1% +1.15 88 32
46 St. John's 19.1% +1.15 88 37
47 SE Louisiana 19.1% +1.14 87 30
48 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 19.0% +1.10 87 29
49 Prairie View A&M 19.0% +1.10 87 33
50 New Mexico 19.0% +1.10 87 36
51 Florida State 19.0% +1.09 86 33
52 William & Mary 18.9% +1.08 86 30
53 Bradley 18.9% +1.06 86 33
54 Nebraska 18.9% +1.03 85 35
55 San Diego 18.8% +1.03 85 31
56 UC Irvine 18.8% +1.00 85 33
57 Brown 18.8% +1.00 85 25
58 Norfolk State 18.8% +1.00 84 28
59 South Carolina State 18.8% +0.99 84 30
60 Ball State 18.7% +0.97 84 29
61 Long Island University 18.7% +0.97 84 35
62 North Dakota State 18.7% +0.96 83 32
63 Alabama State 18.7% +0.96 83 31
64 DePaul 18.7% +0.95 83 32
65 Georgia Southern 18.7% +0.95 82 35
66 Northern Kentucky 18.6% +0.92 82 31
67 Southern 18.6% +0.92 82 31
68 Mercyhurst 18.6% +0.91 82 32
69 Memphis 18.6% +0.90 81 32
70 Villanova 18.6% +0.89 81 33
71 Little Rock 18.5% +0.89 81 30
72 Radford 18.5% +0.86 80 29
73 Bowling Green 18.5% +0.86 80 29
74 Southern Illinois 18.5% +0.86 80 31
75 Texas State 18.5% +0.85 80 30
76 UCLA 18.5% +0.84 79 36
77 Arizona State 18.5% +0.84 79 33
78 Lindenwood 18.4% +0.84 79 30
79 East Tennessee State 18.4% +0.84 79 32
80 Saint Francis 18.4% +0.84 78 29
81 Texas A&M 18.4% +0.83 78 34
82 Georgia 18.4% +0.82 78 33
83 Duquesne 18.4% +0.82 77 31
84 Navy 18.3% +0.79 77 32
85 Louisiana 18.3% +0.77 77 33
86 Akron 18.3% +0.76 77 33
87 Miami 18.2% +0.74 76 35
88 Fresno State 18.2% +0.74 76 31
89 Cincinnati 18.2% +0.73 76 33
90 NC State 18.2% +0.71 76 34
91 Southeast Missouri State 18.1% +0.68 75 30
92 Alcorn State 18.0% +0.65 75 32
93 UT Arlington 18.0% +0.64 75 30
94 Portland State 18.0% +0.62 74 28
95 Maryland Eastern Shore 18.0% +0.62 74 30
96 South Alabama 18.0% +0.62 74 31
97 Northern Iowa 18.0% +0.61 74 35
98 UTEP 18.0% +0.60 73 28
99 Stanford 18.0% +0.60 73 33
100 Bucknell 18.0% +0.60 73 33
101 Cal State Bakersfield 17.9% +0.60 73 30
102 Louisiana Tech 17.9% +0.60 72 31
103 Austin Peay 17.9% +0.56 72 29
104 Toledo 17.9% +0.55 72 32
105 Buffalo 17.8% +0.55 71 30
106 Youngstown State 17.8% +0.54 71 29
107 UConn 17.8% +0.54 71 40
108 West Virginia 17.8% +0.53 71 35
109 Southern Miss 17.8% +0.52 70 33
110 George Washington 17.8% +0.51 70 34
111 Richmond 17.8% +0.51 70 31
112 Vanderbilt 17.7% +0.48 70 36
113 Lipscomb 17.7% +0.47 69 30
114 Wake Forest 17.7% +0.46 69 35
115 Penn State 17.7% +0.46 69 32
116 Stephen F. Austin 17.7% +0.46 68 32
117 Houston Christian 17.5% +0.41 68 30
118 Coppin State 17.5% +0.41 68 30
119 Long Beach State 17.5% +0.39 68 30
120 Northwestern 17.5% +0.38 67 34
121 Davidson 17.5% +0.37 67 32
122 Quinnipiac 17.4% +0.36 67 31
123 San José State 17.4% +0.35 66 32
124 Clemson 17.4% +0.35 66 35
125 Syracuse 17.4% +0.35 66 32
126 Belmont 17.4% +0.34 66 31
127 UNLV 17.4% +0.34 65 34
128 Miami (OH) 17.4% +0.32 65 31
129 Grand Canyon 17.4% +0.32 65 32
130 Lamar 17.3% +0.30 65 29
131 Virginia Tech 17.3% +0.27 64 32
132 Pennsylvania 17.3% +0.27 64 29
133 Duke 17.2% +0.26 64 38
134 Western Kentucky 17.2% +0.25 63 30
135 Stony Brook 17.2% +0.24 63 30
136 La Salle 17.2% +0.23 63 31
137 Hampton 17.2% +0.23 63 30
138 Fordham 17.2% +0.22 62 29
139 Tulane 17.1% +0.20 62 32
140 Sacramento State 17.1% +0.20 62 28
141 Rutgers 17.1% +0.20 62 34
142 Mississippi Valley State 17.1% +0.19 61 32
143 SIU Edwardsville 17.1% +0.19 61 29
144 St. Bonaventure 17.1% +0.18 61 33
145 Kansas State 17.1% +0.18 60 32
146 New Haven 17.1% +0.18 60 28
147 Harvard 17.1% +0.17 60 28
148 Portland 17.0% +0.16 60 32
149 Liberty 17.0% +0.16 59 31
150 Nevada 17.0% +0.16 59 37
151 VCU 17.0% +0.14 59 36
152 St. Thomas-Minnesota 17.0% +0.14 59 31
153 Campbell 17.0% +0.14 58 32
154 Siena 17.0% +0.14 58 35
155 Mercer 17.0% +0.14 58 29
156 East Texas A&M 17.0% +0.13 57 30
157 Central Michigan 16.9% +0.12 57 29
158 Missouri State 16.9% +0.11 57 31
159 California Baptist 16.9% +0.11 57 34
160 Northwestern State 16.9% +0.09 56 30
161 Valparaiso 16.9% +0.09 56 32
162 Massachusetts 16.9% +0.07 56 32
163 Northeastern 16.8% +0.07 55 31
164 Wyoming 16.8% +0.06 55 32
165 UC San Diego 16.8% +0.06 55 32
166 Utah Tech 16.8% +0.06 55 31
167 Hawai'i 16.8% +0.05 54 31
168 Minnesota 16.8% +0.05 54 33
169 Fairfield 16.8% +0.04 54 33
170 UC Santa Barbara 16.8% +0.04 54 30
171 SMU 16.8% +0.03 53 34
172 Louisville 16.7% +0.01 53 35
173 Troy 16.7% -0.02 53 32
174 Winthrop 16.7% -0.02 52 31
175 Manhattan 16.6% -0.02 52 31
176 Alabama A&M 16.6% -0.03 52 30
177 Niagara 16.6% -0.03 52 29
178 Loyola Marymount 16.6% -0.03 51 31
179 Wright State 16.6% -0.03 51 33
180 Iona 16.6% -0.05 51 32
181 Northern Arizona 16.6% -0.06 51 29
182 Missouri 16.5% -0.07 50 33
183 Southern Indiana 16.5% -0.09 50 28
184 Pepperdine 16.5% -0.09 50 30
185 South Carolina Upstate 16.5% -0.09 49 29
186 Morgan State 16.5% -0.09 49 27
187 Cal State Northridge 16.5% -0.10 49 32
188 Texas Southern 16.5% -0.10 49 28
189 Jackson State 16.5% -0.10 48 33
190 Ole Miss 16.5% -0.11 48 35
191 Florida Gulf Coast 16.5% -0.12 48 32
192 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 16.4% -0.12 48 30
193 Kansas City 16.4% -0.13 47 28
194 BYU 16.4% -0.14 47 35
195 Drexel 16.4% -0.15 47 32
196 Elon 16.4% -0.16 46 30
197 Georgia State 16.4% -0.16 46 30
198 USC 16.3% -0.17 46 31
199 Northern Illinois 16.3% -0.17 46 28
200 Eastern Washington 16.3% -0.18 45 32
201 Auburn 16.3% -0.20 45 38
202 Pittsburgh 16.3% -0.20 45 33
203 Cal Poly 16.3% -0.21 45 31
204 Weber State 16.3% -0.21 44 30
205 East Carolina 16.2% -0.22 44 30
206 Marshall 16.2% -0.22 44 31
207 Yale 16.2% -0.22 43 29
208 Jacksonville State 16.2% -0.22 43 29
209 Arizona 16.2% -0.22 43 39
210 UT Rio Grande Valley 16.2% -0.23 43 31
211 Georgetown 16.2% -0.24 42 34
212 Lehigh 16.2% -0.25 42 33
213 Ohio 16.2% -0.25 42 30
214 NJIT 16.1% -0.26 41 32
215 Tennessee 16.1% -0.27 41 37
216 California 16.1% -0.28 41 33
217 UAB 16.1% -0.28 41 31
218 Fairleigh Dickinson 16.1% -0.29 40 29
219 Kent State 16.1% -0.29 40 32
220 Sam Houston 16.1% -0.30 40 31
221 Illinois State 16.0% -0.32 40 35
222 Canisius 16.0% -0.34 39 30
223 Kennesaw State 16.0% -0.34 39 32
224 Saint Louis 15.9% -0.37 39 34
225 South Dakota 15.9% -0.38 38 29
226 Baylor 15.9% -0.38 38 33
227 New Hampshire 15.8% -0.41 38 28
228 UAlbany 15.8% -0.41 38 29
229 Bethune-Cookman 15.8% -0.43 37 31
230 Robert Morris 15.8% -0.43 37 31
231 Oregon 15.8% -0.44 37 32
232 Milwaukee 15.8% -0.44 37 31
233 Incarnate Word 15.8% -0.45 36 28
234 Murray State 15.7% -0.47 36 33
235 UL Monroe 15.7% -0.47 36 30
236 Rice 15.7% -0.47 35 29
237 Presbyterian 15.7% -0.48 35 30
238 Wichita State 15.7% -0.49 35 35
239 VMI 15.7% -0.49 35 29
240 Oklahoma State 15.7% -0.50 34 35
241 UCF 15.6% -0.50 34 33
242 Montana State 15.6% -0.51 34 29
243 Ohio State 15.6% -0.52 34 34
244 Georgia Tech 15.6% -0.54 33 31
245 Temple 15.5% -0.56 33 31
246 Arkansas 15.5% -0.56 33 37
247 Oklahoma 15.5% -0.57 32 37
248 Kentucky 15.5% -0.57 32 36
249 Eastern Michigan 15.5% -0.57 32 30
250 UC Riverside 15.5% -0.57 32 30
251 UNC Asheville 15.5% -0.58 31 29
252 Florida Atlantic 15.5% -0.58 31 31
253 Xavier 15.5% -0.59 31 33
254 George Mason 15.5% -0.59 30 32
255 Colorado State 15.4% -0.60 30 33
256 Virginia 15.4% -0.61 30 36
257 Army 15.4% -0.62 30 30
258 Evansville 15.4% -0.62 29 30
259 Morehead State 15.4% -0.63 29 30
260 Tulsa 15.4% -0.63 29 36
261 Loyola Maryland 15.4% -0.64 29 30
262 Mount St. Mary's 15.4% -0.64 28 31
263 Purdue 15.3% -0.65 28 39
264 Oregon State 15.3% -0.66 28 33
265 Gardner-Webb 15.3% -0.67 27 30
266 Rider 15.3% -0.68 27 28
267 Colorado 15.2% -0.70 27 33
268 Colgate 15.2% -0.71 27 31
269 Florida 15.2% -0.71 26 35
270 Michigan 15.2% -0.72 26 40
271 Towson 15.1% -0.74 26 32
272 Butler 15.1% -0.75 26 32
273 Lafayette 15.1% -0.76 25 31
274 Saint Mary's 15.1% -0.76 25 32
275 Oakland 15.1% -0.76 25 31
276 Queens University 15.1% -0.77 24 34
277 Bellarmine 15.1% -0.77 24 30
278 Stetson 15.1% -0.77 24 31
279 Cleveland State 15.1% -0.78 24 30
280 Air Force 15.1% -0.78 23 32
281 Pacific 15.1% -0.78 23 31
282 Columbia 15.1% -0.78 23 26
283 UMBC 15.1% -0.79 23 31
284 Indiana 15.0% -0.79 22 32
285 Tennessee Tech 15.0% -0.79 22 28
286 Saint Joseph's 15.0% -0.80 22 34
287 Cornell 15.0% -0.81 21 26
288 Idaho 15.0% -0.82 21 33
289 Le Moyne 15.0% -0.82 21 31
290 Jacksonville 15.0% -0.83 21 30
291 Wofford 15.0% -0.83 20 30
292 Hofstra 15.0% -0.83 20 33
293 Middle Tennessee 15.0% -0.83 20 29
294 Maryland 14.9% -0.84 20 33
295 Wagner 14.9% -0.85 19 28
296 Michigan State 14.9% -0.85 19 35
297 UNC Wilmington 14.9% -0.85 19 32
298 Arkansas State 14.9% -0.85 18 30
299 Indiana State 14.9% -0.86 18 30
300 Western Illinois 14.9% -0.87 18 28
301 New Orleans 14.9% -0.87 18 33
302 Southern Utah 14.8% -0.89 17 29
303 Boston College 14.8% -0.89 17 31
304 Eastern Kentucky 14.8% -0.91 17 30
305 Texas Tech 14.8% -0.91 16 34
306 The Citadel 14.8% -0.92 16 30
307 Vermont 14.8% -0.93 16 32
308 Charleston 14.7% -0.93 16 31
309 UTSA 14.7% -0.94 15 28
310 Oral Roberts 14.7% -0.95 15 30
311 New Mexico State 14.7% -0.96 15 29
312 West Georgia 14.7% -0.96 15 30
313 Bryant 14.6% -0.98 14 29
314 South Carolina 14.6% -0.99 14 32
315 Drake 14.6% -0.99 14 32
316 Idaho State 14.6% -1.00 13 30
317 Boise State 14.6% -1.01 13 30
318 Western Carolina 14.6% -1.02 13 29
319 North Alabama 14.6% -1.03 13 28
320 Sacred Heart 14.6% -1.03 12 32
321 Old Dominion 14.5% -1.03 12 32
322 Washington State 14.5% -1.05 12 31
323 South Dakota State 14.5% -1.06 12 29
324 Detroit Mercy 14.4% -1.10 11 30
325 Washington 14.4% -1.12 11 33
326 Montana 14.3% -1.14 11 30
327 Wisconsin 14.3% -1.16 10 35
328 Princeton 14.2% -1.19 10 28
329 UMass Lowell 14.2% -1.20 10 30
330 Holy Cross 14.1% -1.24 10 31
331 San Francisco 14.1% -1.25 9 32
332 North Carolina A&T 14.1% -1.26 9 28
333 Omaha 14.1% -1.27 9 29
334 Delaware 14.0% -1.28 9 30
335 LSU 14.0% -1.30 8 32
336 App State 14.0% -1.30 8 30
337 Notre Dame 14.0% -1.30 8 31
338 Central Connecticut 14.0% -1.31 7 28
339 Dartmouth 13.8% -1.38 7 25
340 Kansas 13.8% -1.38 7 35
341 Creighton 13.7% -1.44 7 34
342 Furman 13.7% -1.44 6 32
343 UNC Greensboro 13.6% -1.47 6 32
344 North Carolina 13.6% -1.49 6 33
345 Charlotte 13.6% -1.50 5 33
346 Western Michigan 13.5% -1.55 5 29
347 Stonehill 13.4% -1.59 5 31
348 Utah 13.4% -1.60 5 32
349 Binghamton 13.3% -1.60 4 28
350 Green Bay 13.2% -1.68 4 31
351 Chattanooga 13.1% -1.72 4 29
352 Providence 13.1% -1.72 4 33
353 Boston University 13.0% -1.75 3 33
354 Samford 13.0% -1.77 3 30
355 Denver 13.0% -1.78 3 29
356 Texas 13.0% -1.78 2 35
357 Loyola Chicago 12.9% -1.81 2 33
358 Mississippi State 12.8% -1.86 2 32
359 James Madison 12.8% -1.87 2 32
360 North Florida 12.8% -1.88 1 30
361 Alabama 12.8% -1.88 1 35
362 Charleston Southern 12.7% -1.89 1 29
363 Northern Colorado 12.4% -2.07 1 29
364 Coastal Carolina 12.2% -2.13 0 31
365 Illinois 11.6% -2.43 0 37