And of all my friends, you've been the best to me. / Soon will be the day when I repay you handsomely. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 14.5% max 38.6% mean 25.5% std 4.0% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Free Throw Rate z Pctl GP
1 Illinois 14.5% -2.76 100 37
2 Duke 16.2% -2.33 100 38
3 North Carolina 16.7% -2.22 99 33
4 UMBC 17.4% -2.04 99 31
5 Creighton 17.4% -2.04 99 34
6 Oakland 17.8% -1.93 99 31
7 Butler 17.9% -1.93 98 32
8 Toledo 18.2% -1.85 98 32
9 Charleston 18.2% -1.84 98 31
10 Nebraska 18.3% -1.81 98 35
11 Purdue 18.5% -1.76 97 39
12 Pennsylvania 18.5% -1.76 97 29
13 Saint Mary's 18.5% -1.75 97 32
14 South Alabama 18.6% -1.74 96 31
15 Saint Joseph's 18.6% -1.74 96 34
16 Kansas 18.8% -1.69 96 35
17 UC Irvine 18.8% -1.69 96 33
18 Manhattan 18.9% -1.66 95 31
19 Sacred Heart 18.9% -1.66 95 32
20 Harvard 19.2% -1.58 95 28
21 Michigan 19.3% -1.57 95 40
22 UL Monroe 19.3% -1.57 94 30
23 Arizona 19.4% -1.53 94 39
24 Navy 19.6% -1.50 94 32
25 Yale 19.6% -1.49 93 29
26 Minnesota 19.6% -1.49 93 33
27 Liberty 19.8% -1.44 93 31
28 Iowa State 19.9% -1.40 93 37
29 Indiana State 20.0% -1.39 92 30
30 Siena 20.1% -1.37 92 35
31 UMass Lowell 20.3% -1.32 92 30
32 Furman 20.3% -1.31 91 32
33 Towson 20.3% -1.31 91 32
34 BYU 20.4% -1.29 91 35
35 Holy Cross 20.5% -1.25 91 31
36 George Mason 20.6% -1.24 90 32
37 Pepperdine 20.6% -1.24 90 30
38 Stonehill 20.6% -1.24 90 31
39 Lipscomb 20.6% -1.24 90 30
40 Fordham 20.7% -1.22 89 29
41 UAB 20.7% -1.21 89 31
42 Fresno State 20.7% -1.20 89 31
43 Central Connecticut 20.7% -1.20 88 28
44 UC San Diego 21.0% -1.13 88 32
45 Miami 21.0% -1.13 88 35
46 New Haven 21.1% -1.12 88 28
47 Iona 21.1% -1.12 87 32
48 Southern Utah 21.1% -1.11 87 29
49 Penn State 21.1% -1.10 87 32
50 Northern Iowa 21.2% -1.08 87 35
51 West Virginia 21.3% -1.06 86 35
52 Cincinnati 21.3% -1.05 86 33
53 Virginia Tech 21.4% -1.05 86 32
54 Utah 21.4% -1.04 85 32
55 La Salle 21.6% -0.98 85 31
56 UNC Greensboro 21.6% -0.97 85 32
57 Villanova 21.7% -0.97 85 33
58 Wisconsin 21.7% -0.96 84 35
59 Georgia 21.7% -0.95 84 33
60 Purdue Fort Wayne 21.7% -0.95 84 29
61 Houston Christian 21.8% -0.93 84 30
62 Southern Illinois 21.8% -0.93 83 31
63 Drake 21.9% -0.92 83 32
64 Dartmouth 21.9% -0.92 83 25
65 Akron 21.9% -0.91 82 33
66 Texas Tech 21.9% -0.91 82 34
67 San Francisco 22.0% -0.89 82 32
68 North Dakota State 22.0% -0.88 82 32
69 Central Arkansas 22.0% -0.88 81 32
70 North Florida 22.1% -0.87 81 30
71 App State 22.1% -0.87 81 30
72 Kansas City 22.1% -0.87 80 28
73 Gonzaga 22.1% -0.87 80 35
74 Illinois State 22.1% -0.87 80 35
75 TCU 22.2% -0.85 80 35
76 Boston University 22.2% -0.84 79 33
77 Troy 22.3% -0.82 79 32
78 Oklahoma State 22.3% -0.82 79 35
79 Alabama 22.3% -0.82 79 35
80 Miami (OH) 22.3% -0.80 78 31
81 Fairfield 22.4% -0.79 78 33
82 Mercer 22.4% -0.79 78 29
83 Washington 22.4% -0.78 77 33
84 Quinnipiac 22.4% -0.77 77 31
85 Michigan State 22.5% -0.77 77 35
86 Baylor 22.5% -0.75 77 33
87 St. John's 22.5% -0.75 76 37
88 Arkansas 22.6% -0.75 76 37
89 Montana State 22.6% -0.73 76 29
90 Stetson 22.7% -0.71 76 31
91 Stephen F. Austin 22.7% -0.71 75 32
92 Lafayette 22.7% -0.70 75 31
93 Boise State 22.8% -0.68 75 30
94 The Citadel 22.8% -0.68 74 30
95 North Alabama 22.9% -0.66 74 28
96 South Dakota 22.9% -0.66 74 29
97 Little Rock 22.9% -0.66 74 30
98 Xavier 22.9% -0.65 73 33
99 SMU 23.0% -0.64 73 34
100 Murray State 23.1% -0.61 73 33
101 Tennessee Tech 23.1% -0.61 73 28
102 Florida State 23.2% -0.59 72 33
103 Boston College 23.2% -0.59 72 31
104 VCU 23.2% -0.58 72 36
105 Rider 23.2% -0.58 71 28
106 East Carolina 23.2% -0.57 71 30
107 Belmont 23.2% -0.57 71 31
108 St. Thomas-Minnesota 23.3% -0.57 71 31
109 Austin Peay 23.3% -0.57 70 29
110 Buffalo 23.3% -0.55 70 30
111 Maine 23.4% -0.55 70 31
112 Monmouth 23.4% -0.54 70 33
113 Tulsa 23.4% -0.54 69 36
114 UNC Wilmington 23.4% -0.54 69 32
115 Evansville 23.4% -0.53 69 30
116 Delaware 23.4% -0.52 68 30
117 Syracuse 23.5% -0.51 68 32
118 Montana 23.6% -0.49 68 30
119 Providence 23.6% -0.48 68 33
120 Louisville 23.6% -0.48 67 35
121 Northern Arizona 23.6% -0.48 67 29
122 Pittsburgh 23.8% -0.44 67 33
123 Colorado State 23.8% -0.43 66 33
124 Bryant 23.8% -0.42 66 29
125 California 23.9% -0.42 66 33
126 Loyola Maryland 23.9% -0.41 66 30
127 Long Island University 23.9% -0.41 65 35
128 UTSA 23.9% -0.40 65 28
129 Rutgers 23.9% -0.40 65 34
130 Utah Tech 24.0% -0.39 65 31
131 Binghamton 24.0% -0.39 64 28
132 East Texas A&M 24.0% -0.38 64 30
133 Le Moyne 24.1% -0.36 64 31
134 Wichita State 24.1% -0.36 63 35
135 Portland 24.2% -0.33 63 32
136 SIU Edwardsville 24.2% -0.33 63 29
137 South Carolina 24.3% -0.32 63 32
138 Mississippi State 24.3% -0.31 62 32
139 Colgate 24.3% -0.31 62 31
140 Omaha 24.3% -0.30 62 29
141 Loyola Marymount 24.3% -0.30 62 31
142 Marquette 24.4% -0.29 61 32
143 Georgia Tech 24.4% -0.27 61 31
144 Lehigh 24.5% -0.27 61 33
145 Seattle U 24.5% -0.27 60 33
146 Samford 24.5% -0.26 60 30
147 New Mexico 24.5% -0.26 60 36
148 Western Illinois 24.5% -0.25 60 28
149 Georgetown 24.6% -0.23 59 34
150 Georgia State 24.6% -0.23 59 30
151 UT Martin 24.6% -0.23 59 30
152 Princeton 24.7% -0.21 59 28
153 Elon 24.7% -0.21 58 30
154 Cal Poly 24.7% -0.21 58 31
155 Ball State 24.8% -0.19 58 29
156 Florida 24.8% -0.19 57 35
157 Wright State 24.8% -0.19 57 33
158 Coastal Carolina 24.8% -0.17 57 31
159 Washington State 24.9% -0.16 57 31
160 Valparaiso 24.9% -0.15 56 32
161 Hawai'i 24.9% -0.15 56 31
162 Dayton 25.0% -0.14 56 37
163 Virginia 25.0% -0.13 55 36
164 Columbia 25.0% -0.12 55 26
165 Bellarmine 25.1% -0.11 55 30
166 Richmond 25.1% -0.11 55 31
167 Florida International 25.2% -0.09 54 29
168 Hofstra 25.2% -0.09 54 33
169 William & Mary 25.2% -0.08 54 30
170 High Point 25.2% -0.08 54 33
171 Oregon 25.2% -0.08 53 32
172 UIC 25.2% -0.08 53 33
173 VMI 25.3% -0.07 53 29
174 South Carolina Upstate 25.3% -0.05 52 29
175 Stony Brook 25.3% -0.05 52 30
176 Morehead State 25.3% -0.05 52 30
177 Kansas State 25.4% -0.04 52 32
178 Clemson 25.4% -0.04 51 35
179 Tennessee 25.4% -0.03 51 37
180 Northwestern State 25.4% -0.03 51 30
181 Arizona State 25.5% -0.02 51 33
182 Temple 25.5% -0.01 50 31
183 George Washington 25.5% -0.00 50 34
184 St. Bonaventure 25.5% -0.00 50 33
185 Lindenwood 25.6% +0.01 49 30
186 Auburn 25.6% +0.01 49 38
187 Gardner-Webb 25.6% +0.01 49 30
188 Pacific 25.6% +0.01 49 31
189 Canisius 25.6% +0.03 48 30
190 Sam Houston 25.7% +0.03 48 31
191 South Dakota State 25.7% +0.03 48 29
192 Eastern Michigan 25.7% +0.04 48 30
193 Davidson 25.7% +0.04 47 32
194 Presbyterian 25.7% +0.04 47 30
195 Ohio State 25.7% +0.04 47 34
196 UCLA 25.7% +0.04 46 36
197 Loyola Chicago 25.8% +0.05 46 33
198 Northwestern 25.8% +0.06 46 34
199 Louisiana Tech 25.8% +0.06 46 31
200 NC State 25.8% +0.07 45 34
201 Fairleigh Dickinson 25.9% +0.08 45 29
202 Denver 25.9% +0.08 45 29
203 UCF 25.9% +0.10 45 33
204 USC 26.0% +0.10 44 31
205 Charlotte 26.0% +0.11 44 33
206 North Carolina A&T 26.0% +0.11 44 28
207 Maryland 26.0% +0.13 43 33
208 Cal State Northridge 26.0% +0.13 43 32
209 Oregon State 26.0% +0.13 43 33
210 Western Michigan 26.1% +0.15 43 29
211 Arkansas State 26.1% +0.15 42 30
212 East Tennessee State 26.2% +0.16 42 32
213 Marist 26.2% +0.16 42 30
214 UAlbany 26.2% +0.17 41 29
215 Florida Atlantic 26.2% +0.17 41 31
216 UNC Asheville 26.2% +0.17 41 29
217 Oklahoma 26.2% +0.18 41 37
218 Missouri 26.2% +0.18 40 33
219 Eastern Illinois 26.3% +0.18 40 30
220 Sacramento State 26.3% +0.18 40 28
221 Niagara 26.3% +0.18 40 29
222 Texas A&M 26.3% +0.19 39 34
223 Southern Indiana 26.4% +0.20 39 28
224 LSU 26.4% +0.21 39 32
225 NJIT 26.4% +0.21 38 32
226 California Baptist 26.4% +0.22 38 34
227 Wake Forest 26.4% +0.22 38 35
228 North Carolina Central 26.4% +0.22 38 28
229 Weber State 26.5% +0.24 37 30
230 Bucknell 26.5% +0.24 37 33
231 Cal State Fullerton 26.6% +0.26 37 32
232 Middle Tennessee 26.6% +0.27 37 29
233 Air Force 26.6% +0.27 36 32
234 Drexel 26.6% +0.28 36 32
235 Northern Kentucky 26.6% +0.28 36 31
236 Kentucky 26.7% +0.28 35 36
237 Milwaukee 26.7% +0.28 35 31
238 Cornell 26.7% +0.29 35 26
239 Vermont 26.7% +0.30 35 32
240 Howard 26.7% +0.30 34 31
241 Bowling Green 26.8% +0.32 34 29
242 UT Rio Grande Valley 26.9% +0.33 34 31
243 Houston 26.9% +0.34 34 37
244 Oral Roberts 26.9% +0.35 33 30
245 Youngstown State 26.9% +0.35 33 29
246 Central Michigan 26.9% +0.35 33 29
247 Cleveland State 27.0% +0.35 32 30
248 Bradley 27.0% +0.37 32 33
249 DePaul 27.0% +0.37 32 32
250 Detroit Mercy 27.0% +0.38 32 30
251 Saint Louis 27.1% +0.38 31 34
252 Tulane 27.1% +0.38 31 32
253 West Georgia 27.1% +0.38 31 30
254 New Hampshire 27.1% +0.38 30 28
255 South Florida 27.2% +0.41 30 33
256 Colorado 27.2% +0.42 30 33
257 Notre Dame 27.2% +0.42 30 31
258 Merrimack 27.3% +0.44 29 34
259 Saint Francis 27.4% +0.47 29 29
260 Campbell 27.5% +0.48 29 32
261 San José State 27.5% +0.50 29 32
262 Nevada 27.6% +0.51 28 37
263 Western Carolina 27.6% +0.52 28 29
264 Bethune-Cookman 27.6% +0.52 28 31
265 Green Bay 27.8% +0.56 27 31
266 Alabama A&M 27.8% +0.57 27 30
267 Queens University 27.9% +0.58 27 34
268 Texas State 27.9% +0.59 27 30
269 Ohio 28.0% +0.61 26 30
270 Wofford 28.0% +0.63 26 30
271 Indiana 28.0% +0.63 26 32
272 Northern Illinois 28.1% +0.63 26 28
273 Santa Clara 28.1% +0.63 25 34
274 Mount St. Mary's 28.1% +0.64 25 31
275 San Diego State 28.2% +0.66 25 32
276 Eastern Kentucky 28.2% +0.67 24 30
277 Eastern Washington 28.3% +0.69 24 32
278 Florida Gulf Coast 28.3% +0.70 24 32
279 New Orleans 28.4% +0.71 24 33
280 Iowa 28.4% +0.71 23 37
281 Utah State 28.5% +0.73 23 35
282 Winthrop 28.5% +0.74 23 31
283 Chicago State 28.5% +0.75 23 31
284 Grand Canyon 28.5% +0.75 22 32
285 Kent State 28.5% +0.75 22 32
286 Brown 28.6% +0.76 22 25
287 San Diego 28.6% +0.76 21 31
288 Utah Valley 28.6% +0.77 21 31
289 Alcorn State 28.6% +0.78 21 32
290 UT Arlington 28.7% +0.79 21 30
291 Idaho 28.7% +0.79 20 33
292 Radford 28.7% +0.80 20 29
293 Delaware State 28.8% +0.81 20 27
294 Grambling 28.8% +0.82 20 31
295 UC Riverside 28.9% +0.84 19 30
296 Missouri State 28.9% +0.85 19 31
297 UC Davis 29.0% +0.87 19 31
298 Idaho State 29.1% +0.88 18 30
299 Duquesne 29.1% +0.89 18 31
300 Jacksonville State 29.2% +0.91 18 29
301 Longwood 29.2% +0.92 18 29
302 Wagner 29.3% +0.93 17 28
303 Texas 29.4% +0.98 17 35
304 James Madison 29.6% +1.01 17 32
305 Ole Miss 29.6% +1.01 16 35
306 Nicholls 29.6% +1.01 16 32
307 UConn 29.6% +1.02 16 40
308 Mercyhurst 29.6% +1.02 16 32
309 Army 29.6% +1.03 15 30
310 Northern Colorado 29.6% +1.03 15 29
311 Rice 29.7% +1.04 15 29
312 UTEP 29.8% +1.06 15 28
313 Jacksonville 29.8% +1.07 14 30
314 Florida A&M 29.8% +1.07 14 29
315 Vanderbilt 29.8% +1.07 14 36
316 Incarnate Word 29.9% +1.09 13 28
317 Marshall 29.9% +1.09 13 31
318 Seton Hall 30.0% +1.11 13 33
319 Rhode Island 30.0% +1.11 13 32
320 Tennessee State 30.1% +1.14 12 30
321 SE Louisiana 30.2% +1.17 12 30
322 Chattanooga 30.2% +1.17 12 29
323 American University 30.4% +1.22 12 30
324 Lamar 30.6% +1.27 11 29
325 Georgia Southern 30.6% +1.27 11 35
326 Robert Morris 30.6% +1.27 11 31
327 Stanford 30.6% +1.27 10 33
328 McNeese 30.8% +1.31 10 32
329 UC Santa Barbara 30.8% +1.32 10 30
330 Charleston Southern 30.8% +1.32 10 29
331 Prairie View A&M 30.9% +1.34 9 33
332 Northeastern 30.9% +1.36 9 31
333 Southern Miss 31.0% +1.36 9 33
334 Memphis 31.0% +1.38 9 32
335 North Dakota 31.1% +1.38 8 32
336 Cal State Bakersfield 31.1% +1.38 8 30
337 Alabama State 31.1% +1.39 8 31
338 Texas Southern 31.2% +1.42 7 28
339 Old Dominion 31.2% +1.42 7 32
340 Jackson State 31.3% +1.44 7 33
341 Hampton 31.7% +1.54 7 30
342 Long Beach State 31.7% +1.54 6 30
343 Coppin State 31.9% +1.59 6 30
344 Maryland Eastern Shore 32.0% +1.61 6 30
345 New Mexico State 32.0% +1.62 5 29
346 North Texas 32.0% +1.62 5 31
347 Portland State 32.1% +1.63 5 28
348 Norfolk State 32.3% +1.70 5 28
349 Western Kentucky 32.4% +1.71 4 30
350 Massachusetts 32.5% +1.75 4 32
351 UNLV 32.6% +1.77 4 34
352 Southern 32.7% +1.80 4 31
353 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 32.8% +1.83 3 29
354 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 33.0% +1.87 3 30
355 Louisiana 33.3% +1.95 3 33
356 Wyoming 33.5% +1.98 2 32
357 Saint Peter's 34.5% +2.25 2 28
358 IU Indianapolis 34.6% +2.27 2 30
359 Tarleton State 34.9% +2.35 2 28
360 Kennesaw State 35.4% +2.46 1 32
361 Southeast Missouri State 35.4% +2.47 1 30
362 Morgan State 35.8% +2.57 1 27
363 South Carolina State 38.0% +3.12 1 30
364 Mississippi Valley State 38.1% +3.14 0 32
365 Abilene Christian 38.6% +3.28 0 30