He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.72 (team entering with the better value wins 66% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 89.2 max 125.0 mean 108.1 std 6.7 (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Offensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 Illinois 125.0 +2.52 100 37
2 Purdue 124.6 +2.46 100 39
3 Arkansas 122.6 +2.16 99 37
4 Duke 122.6 +2.16 99 38
5 Alabama 122.1 +2.10 99 35
6 Akron 121.6 +2.02 99 33
7 Florida 121.4 +1.99 98 35
8 Michigan 121.4 +1.98 98 40
9 Vanderbilt 121.0 +1.92 98 36
10 Yale 120.8 +1.90 98 29
11 Arizona 120.8 +1.89 97 39
12 High Point 120.5 +1.85 97 33
13 Gonzaga 120.1 +1.79 97 35
14 Saint Louis 120.0 +1.78 96 34
15 Miami (OH) 119.9 +1.77 96 31
16 Tulsa 119.8 +1.75 96 36
17 Cornell 119.7 +1.74 96 26
18 Georgia 119.5 +1.70 95 33
19 Auburn 119.3 +1.68 95 38
20 Iowa State 119.3 +1.68 95 37
21 Virginia 119.2 +1.65 95 36
22 Texas 119.2 +1.65 94 35
23 Utah State 119.1 +1.65 94 35
24 Oklahoma 119.1 +1.64 94 37
25 Queens University 118.8 +1.60 93 34
26 SMU 118.8 +1.59 93 34
27 Louisville 118.6 +1.56 93 35
28 Wisconsin 118.5 +1.55 93 35
29 Iowa 118.5 +1.55 92 37
30 NC State 118.4 +1.53 92 34
31 Ohio State 118.2 +1.51 92 34
32 BYU 118.1 +1.50 91 35
33 Belmont 118.1 +1.50 91 31
34 Bellarmine 117.9 +1.47 91 30
35 Texas Tech 117.9 +1.46 91 34
36 Houston 117.8 +1.45 90 37
37 Santa Clara 117.7 +1.43 90 34
38 Miami 117.7 +1.43 90 35
39 Saint Mary's 116.9 +1.31 90 32
40 Michigan State 116.8 +1.30 89 35
41 Liberty 116.7 +1.28 89 31
42 South Florida 116.6 +1.27 89 33
43 Texas A&M 116.6 +1.27 88 34
44 Colorado State 116.4 +1.24 88 33
45 St. Thomas-Minnesota 116.4 +1.23 88 31
46 Indiana 116.2 +1.20 88 32
47 VCU 116.2 +1.20 87 36
48 UCLA 116.1 +1.19 87 36
49 Tennessee 115.9 +1.16 87 37
50 Baylor 115.9 +1.16 87 33
51 North Carolina 115.8 +1.15 86 33
52 UConn 115.7 +1.13 86 40
53 Denver 115.5 +1.11 86 29
54 Wright State 115.5 +1.11 85 33
55 Mercer 115.3 +1.07 85 29
56 Murray State 115.3 +1.07 85 33
57 Kentucky 115.1 +1.05 85 36
58 Providence 115.1 +1.05 84 33
59 East Tennessee State 115.0 +1.02 84 32
60 LSU 115.0 +1.02 84 32
61 Nebraska 114.9 +1.02 84 35
62 Toledo 114.9 +1.01 83 32
63 George Washington 114.8 +0.99 83 34
64 Villanova 114.7 +0.98 83 33
65 Missouri 114.5 +0.96 82 33
66 Oakland 114.4 +0.94 82 31
67 Robert Morris 114.4 +0.93 82 31
68 St. John's 114.3 +0.93 82 37
69 McNeese 114.3 +0.92 81 32
70 New Mexico 114.2 +0.91 81 36
71 Boston University 114.2 +0.91 81 33
72 Marshall 114.1 +0.90 80 31
73 Buffalo 114.0 +0.88 80 30
74 Wofford 114.0 +0.87 80 30
75 Northern Colorado 113.7 +0.83 80 29
76 North Dakota State 113.5 +0.80 79 32
77 UCF 113.5 +0.80 79 33
78 Sam Houston 113.3 +0.78 79 31
79 Winthrop 113.3 +0.77 79 31
80 Colorado 113.3 +0.77 78 33
81 Northern Kentucky 113.1 +0.74 78 31
82 Boise State 113.0 +0.73 78 30
83 Green Bay 113.0 +0.73 77 31
84 UNC Wilmington 113.0 +0.73 77 32
85 UMBC 112.9 +0.71 77 31
86 Hofstra 112.8 +0.70 77 33
87 UC Santa Barbara 112.7 +0.68 76 30
88 Stephen F. Austin 112.7 +0.68 76 32
89 Virginia Tech 112.6 +0.68 76 32
90 Central Arkansas 112.6 +0.67 76 32
91 Austin Peay 112.6 +0.67 75 29
92 Wyoming 112.6 +0.66 75 32
93 George Mason 112.5 +0.65 75 32
94 Wake Forest 112.4 +0.64 74 35
95 Clemson 112.4 +0.63 74 35
96 Nevada 112.3 +0.63 74 37
97 Navy 112.3 +0.62 74 32
98 Wichita State 112.2 +0.61 73 35
99 Samford 112.2 +0.61 73 30
100 Northwestern 112.0 +0.58 73 34
101 Florida State 112.0 +0.57 73 33
102 Kent State 111.9 +0.57 72 32
103 Washington 111.9 +0.57 72 33
104 St. Bonaventure 111.8 +0.55 72 33
105 Charlotte 111.8 +0.55 71 33
106 Butler 111.7 +0.54 71 32
107 Montana State 111.7 +0.53 71 29
108 Stanford 111.7 +0.53 71 33
109 Georgia Southern 111.7 +0.53 70 35
110 Oklahoma State 111.6 +0.53 70 35
111 Elon 111.6 +0.51 70 30
112 Weber State 111.4 +0.49 70 30
113 Troy 111.4 +0.49 69 32
114 Furman 111.4 +0.48 69 32
115 Temple 111.3 +0.48 69 31
116 William & Mary 111.3 +0.48 68 30
117 Arkansas State 111.1 +0.45 68 30
118 California 111.1 +0.44 68 33
119 Richmond 111.0 +0.44 68 31
120 Eastern Washington 111.0 +0.43 67 32
121 Colgate 110.8 +0.40 67 31
122 Kennesaw State 110.8 +0.40 67 32
123 Eastern Kentucky 110.8 +0.40 66 30
124 Vermont 110.7 +0.38 66 32
125 UNC Greensboro 110.6 +0.37 66 32
126 Utah Valley 110.6 +0.37 66 31
127 TCU 110.5 +0.35 65 35
128 James Madison 110.4 +0.34 65 32
129 Bradley 110.4 +0.33 65 33
130 Columbia 110.4 +0.33 65 26
131 San Francisco 110.3 +0.33 64 32
132 Chattanooga 110.3 +0.32 64 29
133 Cleveland State 110.2 +0.31 64 30
134 UNLV 110.2 +0.30 63 34
135 Idaho State 110.2 +0.30 63 30
136 Washington State 110.1 +0.29 63 31
137 UT Rio Grande Valley 109.9 +0.26 63 31
138 Florida Gulf Coast 109.9 +0.26 62 32
139 South Alabama 109.9 +0.26 62 31
140 Western Carolina 109.8 +0.25 62 29
141 UAB 109.8 +0.25 62 31
142 Lipscomb 109.8 +0.25 61 30
143 Notre Dame 109.7 +0.24 61 31
144 Massachusetts 109.7 +0.23 61 32
145 Idaho 109.6 +0.23 60 33
146 Tennessee State 109.6 +0.22 60 30
147 Minnesota 109.5 +0.21 60 33
148 Penn State 109.5 +0.20 60 32
149 Xavier 109.4 +0.19 59 33
150 South Dakota State 109.3 +0.17 59 29
151 Illinois State 109.3 +0.17 59 35
152 Kansas 109.3 +0.17 59 35
153 Detroit Mercy 109.2 +0.16 58 30
154 Siena 109.2 +0.16 58 35
155 Charleston 109.2 +0.16 58 31
156 Creighton 109.2 +0.15 57 34
157 Ole Miss 109.1 +0.14 57 35
158 Grand Canyon 109.0 +0.13 57 32
159 San Diego State 109.0 +0.13 57 32
160 Youngstown State 109.0 +0.13 56 29
161 South Carolina 109.0 +0.13 56 32
162 Howard 108.9 +0.11 56 31
163 Western Kentucky 108.8 +0.10 55 30
164 Duquesne 108.8 +0.10 55 31
165 Georgetown 108.7 +0.08 55 34
166 Fairfield 108.7 +0.08 55 33
167 Dayton 108.6 +0.07 54 37
168 Radford 108.6 +0.07 54 29
169 Missouri State 108.6 +0.07 54 31
170 Florida Atlantic 108.6 +0.07 54 31
171 UIC 108.6 +0.06 53 33
172 Milwaukee 108.5 +0.06 53 31
173 Utah 108.5 +0.05 53 32
174 Syracuse 108.4 +0.05 52 32
175 Campbell 108.4 +0.05 52 32
176 Pacific 108.4 +0.05 52 31
177 Bowling Green 108.3 +0.02 52 29
178 New Mexico State 108.2 +0.02 51 29
179 Arizona State 108.2 +0.01 51 33
180 Sacred Heart 108.1 -0.00 51 32
181 Pittsburgh 108.1 -0.01 51 33
182 Drake 108.1 -0.01 50 32
183 West Virginia 108.0 -0.02 50 35
184 Harvard 108.0 -0.02 50 28
185 Long Island University 107.9 -0.04 49 35
186 Hawai'i 107.9 -0.04 49 31
187 App State 107.8 -0.05 49 30
188 Charleston Southern 107.8 -0.05 49 29
189 Davidson 107.8 -0.05 48 32
190 American University 107.8 -0.06 48 30
191 Kansas State 107.7 -0.06 48 32
192 Central Connecticut 107.7 -0.06 48 28
193 Utah Tech 107.7 -0.07 47 31
194 Ohio 107.7 -0.07 47 30
195 Middle Tennessee 107.6 -0.07 47 29
196 Pennsylvania 107.6 -0.07 46 29
197 Florida International 107.6 -0.07 46 29
198 Northern Iowa 107.5 -0.09 46 35
199 USC 107.5 -0.10 46 31
200 IU Indianapolis 107.3 -0.13 45 30
201 Omaha 107.3 -0.13 45 29
202 Morehead State 107.2 -0.14 45 30
203 San José State 107.2 -0.14 45 32
204 Purdue Fort Wayne 107.2 -0.14 44 29
205 Mississippi State 107.1 -0.15 44 32
206 Incarnate Word 107.1 -0.16 44 28
207 South Dakota 107.1 -0.16 43 29
208 Cal State Fullerton 106.9 -0.19 43 32
209 California Baptist 106.8 -0.19 43 34
210 Northeastern 106.8 -0.20 43 31
211 UC San Diego 106.7 -0.22 42 32
212 Monmouth 106.6 -0.23 42 33
213 North Carolina A&T 106.6 -0.23 42 28
214 North Dakota 106.5 -0.24 41 32
215 Longwood 106.5 -0.24 41 29
216 Montana 106.4 -0.26 41 30
217 Old Dominion 106.4 -0.26 41 32
218 North Florida 106.4 -0.27 40 30
219 Cal State Northridge 106.3 -0.27 40 32
220 Portland State 106.2 -0.28 40 28
221 Merrimack 106.2 -0.29 40 34
222 Cal Poly 106.2 -0.30 39 31
223 Marquette 106.1 -0.31 39 32
224 West Georgia 106.1 -0.31 39 30
225 Western Michigan 106.0 -0.31 38 29
226 New Orleans 106.0 -0.32 38 33
227 Loyola Maryland 106.0 -0.32 38 30
228 Iona 106.0 -0.33 38 32
229 Rice 105.9 -0.33 37 29
230 Texas State 105.9 -0.33 37 30
231 Stetson 105.9 -0.33 37 31
232 Oregon State 105.9 -0.33 37 33
233 Valparaiso 105.9 -0.34 36 32
234 UC Davis 105.8 -0.35 36 31
235 Oregon 105.8 -0.36 36 32
236 UNC Asheville 105.7 -0.36 35 29
237 Jacksonville 105.7 -0.37 35 30
238 Seton Hall 105.6 -0.38 35 33
239 Southern 105.5 -0.39 35 31
240 Alabama A&M 105.5 -0.40 34 30
241 Jacksonville State 105.4 -0.41 34 29
242 Southern Miss 105.3 -0.42 34 33
243 Cincinnati 105.2 -0.44 34 33
244 Saint Joseph's 105.2 -0.44 33 34
245 Tulane 105.2 -0.44 33 32
246 Quinnipiac 105.1 -0.45 33 31
247 Manhattan 105.0 -0.46 32 31
248 Central Michigan 105.0 -0.47 32 29
249 Presbyterian 104.9 -0.48 32 30
250 Wagner 104.9 -0.49 32 28
251 San Diego 104.9 -0.49 31 31
252 Saint Peter's 104.9 -0.49 31 28
253 Dartmouth 104.9 -0.49 31 25
254 Stony Brook 104.8 -0.51 30 30
255 Rhode Island 104.6 -0.52 30 32
256 Towson 104.6 -0.53 30 32
257 Lehigh 104.5 -0.54 30 33
258 Sacramento State 104.5 -0.54 29 28
259 UAlbany 104.5 -0.54 29 29
260 Mercyhurst 104.5 -0.55 29 32
261 Rutgers 104.4 -0.56 29 34
262 Fordham 104.4 -0.56 28 29
263 Loyola Marymount 104.4 -0.56 28 31
264 Memphis 104.4 -0.56 28 32
265 Le Moyne 104.4 -0.57 27 31
266 Fresno State 104.3 -0.57 27 31
267 Southeast Missouri State 104.2 -0.58 27 30
268 Princeton 104.2 -0.59 27 28
269 Delaware 104.2 -0.59 26 30
270 Maryland 104.1 -0.61 26 33
271 Northern Arizona 104.0 -0.62 26 29
272 UMass Lowell 104.0 -0.62 26 30
273 Bethune-Cookman 104.0 -0.62 25 31
274 Norfolk State 103.8 -0.66 25 28
275 Nicholls 103.7 -0.66 25 32
276 Marist 103.7 -0.66 24 30
277 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 103.6 -0.68 24 30
278 UC Irvine 103.6 -0.68 24 33
279 Lamar 103.5 -0.69 24 29
280 DePaul 103.5 -0.69 23 32
281 Army 103.4 -0.71 23 30
282 Drexel 103.4 -0.72 23 32
283 The Citadel 103.1 -0.75 23 30
284 Louisiana Tech 103.1 -0.76 22 31
285 Southern Illinois 103.0 -0.76 22 31
286 Prairie View A&M 103.0 -0.77 22 33
287 Tennessee Tech 103.0 -0.77 21 28
288 Holy Cross 103.0 -0.77 21 31
289 Lafayette 103.0 -0.77 21 31
290 Coastal Carolina 102.9 -0.78 21 31
291 Oral Roberts 102.8 -0.80 20 30
292 Georgia Tech 102.7 -0.81 20 31
293 Texas Southern 102.7 -0.82 20 28
294 UT Martin 102.6 -0.83 20 30
295 Indiana State 102.6 -0.83 19 30
296 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 102.6 -0.83 19 29
297 Houston Christian 102.5 -0.84 19 30
298 Eastern Michigan 102.4 -0.86 18 30
299 Portland 102.4 -0.86 18 32
300 North Texas 102.3 -0.87 18 31
301 North Alabama 102.3 -0.87 18 28
302 Hampton 102.3 -0.88 17 30
303 Long Beach State 102.2 -0.89 17 30
304 SIU Edwardsville 102.1 -0.91 17 29
305 East Carolina 102.0 -0.92 16 30
306 Little Rock 101.9 -0.93 16 30
307 Lindenwood 101.8 -0.95 16 30
308 North Carolina Central 101.6 -0.98 16 28
309 Tarleton State 101.4 -1.00 15 28
310 Southern Utah 101.4 -1.01 15 29
311 VMI 101.4 -1.01 15 29
312 Seattle U 101.2 -1.04 15 33
313 Loyola Chicago 101.2 -1.05 14 33
314 Fairleigh Dickinson 101.1 -1.05 14 29
315 Northwestern State 100.8 -1.09 14 30
316 Morgan State 100.8 -1.10 13 27
317 UC Riverside 100.7 -1.11 13 30
318 Alabama State 100.6 -1.12 13 31
319 UT Arlington 100.6 -1.13 13 30
320 Pepperdine 100.5 -1.14 12 30
321 UL Monroe 100.5 -1.15 12 30
322 La Salle 100.5 -1.15 12 31
323 Boston College 100.3 -1.18 12 31
324 South Carolina Upstate 100.1 -1.21 11 29
325 Ball State 100.0 -1.22 11 29
326 UTEP 99.8 -1.25 11 28
327 Mount St. Mary's 99.8 -1.25 10 31
328 Binghamton 99.7 -1.26 10 28
329 Saint Francis 99.7 -1.26 10 29
330 Niagara 99.6 -1.27 10 29
331 Grambling 99.5 -1.29 9 31
332 Bucknell 99.3 -1.32 9 33
333 Louisiana 99.2 -1.33 9 33
334 Florida A&M 99.2 -1.34 9 29
335 Georgia State 99.1 -1.35 8 30
336 Cal State Bakersfield 98.8 -1.40 8 30
337 Chicago State 98.8 -1.40 8 31
338 Brown 98.4 -1.46 7 25
339 SE Louisiana 98.3 -1.47 7 30
340 Abilene Christian 98.2 -1.49 7 30
341 Jackson State 98.1 -1.51 7 33
342 East Texas A&M 98.0 -1.51 6 30
343 NJIT 97.8 -1.55 6 32
344 Evansville 96.9 -1.68 6 30
345 New Haven 96.9 -1.69 5 28
346 Southern Indiana 96.7 -1.72 5 28
347 New Hampshire 96.5 -1.74 5 28
348 UTSA 96.4 -1.76 5 28
349 Canisius 96.4 -1.76 4 30
350 Eastern Illinois 96.4 -1.76 4 30
351 Bryant 96.3 -1.78 4 29
352 Alcorn State 96.2 -1.79 4 32
353 South Carolina State 96.1 -1.81 3 30
354 Northern Illinois 95.6 -1.87 3 28
355 Rider 95.4 -1.91 3 28
356 Maine 94.8 -1.99 2 31
357 Stonehill 94.7 -2.01 2 31
358 Maryland Eastern Shore 94.3 -2.07 2 30
359 Western Illinois 93.6 -2.17 2 28
360 Gardner-Webb 93.5 -2.19 1 30
361 Kansas City 93.4 -2.20 1 28
362 Coppin State 92.8 -2.30 1 30
363 Air Force 91.3 -2.52 1 32
364 Mississippi Valley State 89.9 -2.73 0 32
365 Delaware State 89.2 -2.83 0 27