Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.56 (team entering with the better value wins 55% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 15.6% max 34.8% mean 25.4% std 3.7% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Free Throw Rate z Pctl GP
1 Dayton 34.8% +2.53 100 37
2 New Orleans 34.5% +2.45 100 33
3 Nevada 33.9% +2.29 99 37
4 Boise State 33.6% +2.21 99 30
5 Alabama A&M 33.5% +2.20 99 30
6 South Dakota 33.5% +2.19 99 29
7 Tulane 33.4% +2.15 98 32
8 Oregon State 33.3% +2.13 98 33
9 William & Mary 33.0% +2.05 98 30
10 Texas 32.9% +2.02 98 35
11 Kent State 32.4% +1.88 97 32
12 Tulsa 32.4% +1.88 97 36
13 Arizona 32.3% +1.85 97 39
14 Green Bay 32.2% +1.85 96 31
15 Sacramento State 32.2% +1.84 96 28
16 Howard 32.2% +1.83 96 31
17 Auburn 32.1% +1.82 96 38
18 Winthrop 32.1% +1.81 95 31
19 USC 32.1% +1.81 95 31
20 Southern Miss 31.8% +1.74 95 33
21 Morgan State 31.7% +1.71 95 27
22 Kennesaw State 31.6% +1.68 94 32
23 Campbell 31.5% +1.65 94 32
24 Prairie View A&M 31.4% +1.63 94 33
25 LSU 31.3% +1.58 93 32
26 Binghamton 31.2% +1.58 93 28
27 Western Kentucky 31.2% +1.57 93 30
28 Cal State Bakersfield 31.2% +1.56 93 30
29 Tarleton State 31.1% +1.54 92 28
30 North Carolina A&T 31.0% +1.53 92 28
31 VCU 30.9% +1.49 92 36
32 UT Arlington 30.7% +1.44 91 30
33 Longwood 30.6% +1.41 91 29
34 UC Davis 30.5% +1.39 91 31
35 Hawai'i 30.5% +1.37 91 31
36 Colorado State 30.4% +1.34 90 33
37 Charleston 30.3% +1.34 90 31
38 Temple 30.3% +1.33 90 31
39 High Point 30.3% +1.33 90 33
40 Butler 30.3% +1.32 89 32
41 South Florida 30.1% +1.28 89 33
42 Radford 30.1% +1.27 89 29
43 Merrimack 30.1% +1.26 88 34
44 Vanderbilt 30.0% +1.26 88 36
45 Grambling 30.0% +1.24 88 31
46 George Mason 29.8% +1.20 88 32
47 Grand Canyon 29.8% +1.18 87 32
48 Arizona State 29.8% +1.18 87 33
49 Northwestern State 29.7% +1.17 87 30
50 Norfolk State 29.7% +1.16 87 28
51 Miami (OH) 29.7% +1.15 86 31
52 UNC Greensboro 29.6% +1.13 86 32
53 Jacksonville State 29.5% +1.11 86 29
54 Georgia Southern 29.5% +1.10 85 35
55 Missouri State 29.5% +1.10 85 31
56 Oklahoma State 29.4% +1.07 85 35
57 Abilene Christian 29.3% +1.07 85 30
58 Georgia State 29.2% +1.03 84 30
59 Murray State 29.1% +1.02 84 33
60 Buffalo 29.1% +1.01 84 30
61 Missouri 29.1% +1.00 84 33
62 St. John's 29.0% +0.99 83 37
63 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 29.0% +0.98 83 30
64 Samford 29.0% +0.98 83 30
65 North Carolina Central 29.0% +0.98 82 28
66 Ohio State 28.9% +0.96 82 34
67 Cleveland State 28.9% +0.94 82 30
68 Arkansas State 28.7% +0.89 82 30
69 South Carolina 28.7% +0.89 81 32
70 Oakland 28.6% +0.87 81 31
71 Mercer 28.6% +0.87 81 29
72 Navy 28.6% +0.87 80 32
73 Weber State 28.6% +0.86 80 30
74 Saint Mary's 28.5% +0.85 80 32
75 UC Santa Barbara 28.5% +0.85 80 30
76 Bethune-Cookman 28.5% +0.84 79 31
77 San Diego State 28.5% +0.84 79 32
78 San Francisco 28.4% +0.83 79 32
79 Montana 28.4% +0.83 79 30
80 Hampton 28.4% +0.82 78 30
81 Michigan 28.4% +0.82 78 40
82 Jackson State 28.4% +0.81 78 33
83 Le Moyne 28.3% +0.79 77 31
84 UL Monroe 28.2% +0.76 77 30
85 Dartmouth 28.2% +0.76 77 25
86 Idaho State 28.1% +0.74 77 30
87 California 28.0% +0.71 76 33
88 Morehead State 28.0% +0.70 76 30
89 Wright State 27.9% +0.69 76 33
90 Colorado 27.9% +0.68 76 33
91 Duke 27.8% +0.67 75 38
92 McNeese 27.8% +0.66 75 32
93 Florida 27.8% +0.66 75 35
94 Providence 27.8% +0.65 74 33
95 UNC Wilmington 27.8% +0.65 74 32
96 Richmond 27.7% +0.64 74 31
97 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 27.7% +0.64 74 29
98 North Texas 27.7% +0.63 73 31
99 Georgia 27.7% +0.63 73 33
100 Rhode Island 27.7% +0.63 73 32
101 Valparaiso 27.7% +0.62 73 32
102 Southern 27.7% +0.62 72 31
103 Austin Peay 27.6% +0.61 72 29
104 Alabama 27.6% +0.60 72 35
105 Bellarmine 27.6% +0.60 71 30
106 Georgetown 27.6% +0.59 71 34
107 SE Louisiana 27.6% +0.59 71 30
108 Utah State 27.6% +0.59 71 35
109 UNLV 27.5% +0.58 70 34
110 Texas Southern 27.5% +0.57 70 28
111 Duquesne 27.4% +0.55 70 31
112 Cal Poly 27.4% +0.55 70 31
113 Michigan State 27.4% +0.55 69 35
114 South Carolina State 27.4% +0.55 69 30
115 East Carolina 27.4% +0.55 69 30
116 UNC Asheville 27.3% +0.53 68 29
117 Texas A&M 27.3% +0.53 68 34
118 Wake Forest 27.3% +0.53 68 35
119 Indiana 27.3% +0.51 68 32
120 La Salle 27.2% +0.48 67 31
121 Kentucky 27.2% +0.48 67 36
122 Manhattan 27.1% +0.47 67 31
123 Cal State Fullerton 27.1% +0.46 66 32
124 Tennessee Tech 27.0% +0.45 66 28
125 Arkansas 27.0% +0.43 66 37
126 Southeast Missouri State 27.0% +0.43 66 30
127 Iowa 27.0% +0.43 65 37
128 Presbyterian 26.9% +0.43 65 30
129 NC State 26.9% +0.42 65 34
130 Rutgers 26.9% +0.40 65 34
131 Troy 26.8% +0.39 64 32
132 Oklahoma 26.8% +0.39 64 37
133 Eastern Washington 26.8% +0.39 64 32
134 Florida International 26.8% +0.38 63 29
135 Bowling Green 26.8% +0.38 63 29
136 Clemson 26.6% +0.34 63 35
137 Bradley 26.6% +0.33 63 33
138 Queens University 26.5% +0.31 62 34
139 TCU 26.4% +0.28 62 35
140 Portland State 26.4% +0.27 62 28
141 Wyoming 26.3% +0.26 62 32
142 Denver 26.3% +0.26 61 29
143 North Dakota 26.3% +0.25 61 32
144 Florida A&M 26.3% +0.25 61 29
145 UIC 26.3% +0.24 60 33
146 Maryland 26.3% +0.24 60 33
147 Utah Valley 26.2% +0.23 60 31
148 Ohio 26.2% +0.23 60 30
149 Yale 26.2% +0.22 59 29
150 East Tennessee State 26.1% +0.21 59 32
151 Saint Peter's 26.1% +0.20 59 28
152 Charlotte 26.1% +0.19 59 33
153 New Mexico 26.1% +0.19 58 36
154 Lindenwood 26.0% +0.17 58 30
155 UC Riverside 26.0% +0.17 58 30
156 Stanford 26.0% +0.16 57 33
157 Illinois 25.9% +0.15 57 37
158 UMBC 25.9% +0.15 57 31
159 Princeton 25.9% +0.14 57 28
160 Texas State 25.9% +0.14 56 30
161 Tennessee 25.9% +0.13 56 37
162 Northern Kentucky 25.8% +0.13 56 31
163 Coppin State 25.8% +0.13 55 30
164 Oral Roberts 25.8% +0.11 55 30
165 Siena 25.7% +0.10 55 35
166 Detroit Mercy 25.7% +0.10 55 30
167 UAB 25.7% +0.10 54 31
168 North Alabama 25.7% +0.09 54 28
169 Wofford 25.7% +0.09 54 30
170 BYU 25.7% +0.09 54 35
171 Pepperdine 25.7% +0.08 53 30
172 California Baptist 25.6% +0.07 53 34
173 New Mexico State 25.6% +0.07 53 29
174 Oregon 25.5% +0.04 52 32
175 Seton Hall 25.5% +0.04 52 33
176 Portland 25.5% +0.03 52 32
177 Northwestern 25.5% +0.03 52 34
178 Old Dominion 25.4% +0.02 51 32
179 Fresno State 25.4% +0.01 51 31
180 Miami 25.4% +0.00 51 35
181 Tennessee State 25.4% +0.00 51 30
182 Penn State 25.3% -0.00 50 32
183 UT Martin 25.3% -0.01 50 30
184 North Carolina 25.3% -0.02 50 33
185 Virginia Tech 25.3% -0.02 49 32
186 James Madison 25.3% -0.03 49 32
187 App State 25.3% -0.03 49 30
188 South Alabama 25.2% -0.03 49 31
189 George Washington 25.2% -0.03 48 34
190 UCLA 25.2% -0.04 48 36
191 Omaha 25.2% -0.04 48 29
192 Louisville 25.2% -0.04 48 35
193 Northern Illinois 25.1% -0.06 47 28
194 Idaho 25.1% -0.07 47 33
195 Baylor 25.1% -0.08 47 33
196 UC Irvine 25.1% -0.08 46 33
197 Memphis 25.0% -0.09 46 32
198 Western Illinois 25.0% -0.10 46 28
199 Houston Christian 25.0% -0.11 46 30
200 Saint Louis 25.0% -0.11 45 34
201 Eastern Illinois 24.9% -0.12 45 30
202 Wichita State 24.9% -0.12 45 35
203 Massachusetts 24.9% -0.12 45 32
204 Minnesota 24.8% -0.14 44 33
205 Wisconsin 24.8% -0.14 44 35
206 Southern Indiana 24.7% -0.16 44 28
207 Ole Miss 24.7% -0.17 43 35
208 Florida State 24.7% -0.17 43 33
209 Kansas 24.7% -0.17 43 35
210 San José State 24.7% -0.18 43 32
211 Maine 24.7% -0.18 42 31
212 Alabama State 24.6% -0.20 42 31
213 Sam Houston 24.6% -0.21 42 31
214 Monmouth 24.5% -0.22 41 33
215 DePaul 24.4% -0.26 41 32
216 Western Michigan 24.4% -0.26 41 29
217 Holy Cross 24.3% -0.28 41 31
218 Mississippi Valley State 24.2% -0.30 40 32
219 Incarnate Word 24.2% -0.31 40 28
220 Sacred Heart 24.2% -0.31 40 32
221 Seattle U 24.1% -0.33 40 33
222 Delaware 24.1% -0.35 39 30
223 West Virginia 24.0% -0.37 39 35
224 Elon 24.0% -0.38 39 30
225 Hofstra 24.0% -0.38 38 33
226 Central Connecticut 24.0% -0.38 38 28
227 Drake 23.9% -0.38 38 32
228 Notre Dame 23.7% -0.44 38 31
229 Southern Utah 23.7% -0.45 37 29
230 Georgia Tech 23.7% -0.45 37 31
231 Jacksonville 23.7% -0.45 37 30
232 Coastal Carolina 23.6% -0.47 37 31
233 Pennsylvania 23.6% -0.48 36 29
234 Virginia 23.5% -0.49 36 36
235 Delaware State 23.5% -0.50 36 27
236 UTEP 23.5% -0.50 35 28
237 Wagner 23.5% -0.51 35 28
238 NJIT 23.4% -0.52 35 32
239 Florida Atlantic 23.4% -0.52 35 31
240 Loyola Chicago 23.4% -0.53 34 33
241 Quinnipiac 23.4% -0.53 34 31
242 Utah 23.4% -0.54 34 32
243 Iowa State 23.3% -0.55 34 37
244 St. Thomas-Minnesota 23.2% -0.58 33 31
245 Lehigh 23.1% -0.60 33 33
246 Rice 23.1% -0.61 33 29
247 Boston University 23.1% -0.62 32 33
248 Youngstown State 23.0% -0.62 32 29
249 Pacific 23.0% -0.63 32 31
250 Fairleigh Dickinson 23.0% -0.64 32 29
251 Chattanooga 23.0% -0.64 31 29
252 Washington 23.0% -0.64 31 33
253 Middle Tennessee 23.0% -0.64 31 29
254 Toledo 23.0% -0.65 30 32
255 UMass Lowell 22.9% -0.65 30 30
256 Furman 22.9% -0.65 30 32
257 Bucknell 22.9% -0.67 30 33
258 Nicholls 22.8% -0.68 29 32
259 Cal State Northridge 22.8% -0.68 29 32
260 Syracuse 22.8% -0.70 29 32
261 Long Island University 22.7% -0.72 29 35
262 Canisius 22.6% -0.74 28 30
263 SMU 22.6% -0.75 28 34
264 Alcorn State 22.5% -0.77 28 32
265 Washington State 22.5% -0.77 27 31
266 Air Force 22.5% -0.77 27 32
267 Stetson 22.5% -0.78 27 31
268 Chicago State 22.5% -0.78 27 31
269 Illinois State 22.5% -0.78 26 35
270 Ball State 22.4% -0.78 26 29
271 Mount St. Mary's 22.4% -0.78 26 31
272 North Florida 22.4% -0.80 26 30
273 Montana State 22.4% -0.80 25 29
274 Liberty 22.4% -0.80 25 31
275 St. Bonaventure 22.4% -0.80 25 33
276 Cornell 22.4% -0.80 24 26
277 Bryant 22.4% -0.80 24 29
278 South Carolina Upstate 22.4% -0.81 24 29
279 Vermont 22.4% -0.81 24 32
280 Lafayette 22.3% -0.81 23 31
281 Western Carolina 22.3% -0.81 23 29
282 Belmont 22.3% -0.82 23 31
283 Louisiana Tech 22.3% -0.83 23 31
284 Long Beach State 22.3% -0.83 22 30
285 UCF 22.3% -0.83 22 33
286 New Haven 22.3% -0.83 22 28
287 Eastern Kentucky 22.3% -0.83 21 30
288 Utah Tech 22.2% -0.84 21 31
289 Colgate 22.2% -0.85 21 31
290 Marquette 22.1% -0.87 21 32
291 VMI 22.1% -0.89 20 29
292 UT Rio Grande Valley 22.0% -0.89 20 31
293 Milwaukee 22.0% -0.89 20 31
294 Central Arkansas 22.0% -0.89 20 32
295 Akron 22.0% -0.89 19 33
296 Saint Joseph's 21.9% -0.92 19 34
297 Central Michigan 21.9% -0.93 19 29
298 Gonzaga 21.9% -0.93 18 35
299 Evansville 21.9% -0.93 18 30
300 Northern Arizona 21.9% -0.94 18 29
301 North Dakota State 21.9% -0.94 18 32
302 East Texas A&M 21.7% -0.97 17 30
303 American University 21.7% -0.97 17 30
304 UConn 21.6% -1.00 17 40
305 Creighton 21.6% -1.01 16 34
306 Purdue Fort Wayne 21.6% -1.01 16 29
307 Loyola Marymount 21.6% -1.01 16 31
308 UC San Diego 21.6% -1.01 16 32
309 Eastern Michigan 21.5% -1.04 15 30
310 Saint Francis 21.4% -1.05 15 29
311 South Dakota State 21.4% -1.06 15 29
312 Loyola Maryland 21.3% -1.08 15 30
313 Southern Illinois 21.3% -1.08 14 31
314 Marshall 21.3% -1.08 14 31
315 Purdue 21.3% -1.08 14 39
316 Villanova 21.3% -1.09 13 33
317 Boston College 21.2% -1.13 13 31
318 Rider 21.1% -1.15 13 28
319 Maryland Eastern Shore 21.0% -1.16 13 30
320 Drexel 21.0% -1.17 12 32
321 Towson 21.0% -1.17 12 32
322 Florida Gulf Coast 20.9% -1.18 12 32
323 Northern Colorado 20.8% -1.22 12 29
324 Harvard 20.8% -1.23 11 28
325 Gardner-Webb 20.7% -1.24 11 30
326 Iona 20.7% -1.25 11 32
327 Stephen F. Austin 20.6% -1.27 10 32
328 UTSA 20.6% -1.29 10 28
329 West Georgia 20.6% -1.29 10 30
330 Stony Brook 20.5% -1.30 10 30
331 SIU Edwardsville 20.5% -1.30 9 29
332 Xavier 20.5% -1.31 9 33
333 Pittsburgh 20.5% -1.31 9 33
334 Houston 20.3% -1.35 9 37
335 Northeastern 20.3% -1.37 8 31
336 Mississippi State 20.2% -1.38 8 32
337 Louisiana 20.2% -1.38 8 33
338 Marist 20.0% -1.43 7 30
339 Cincinnati 20.0% -1.43 7 33
340 Columbia 20.0% -1.44 7 26
341 The Citadel 20.0% -1.44 7 30
342 Davidson 19.8% -1.50 6 32
343 Texas Tech 19.8% -1.50 6 34
344 Charleston Southern 19.8% -1.50 6 29
345 Nebraska 19.8% -1.50 5 35
346 Lamar 19.8% -1.51 5 29
347 Lipscomb 19.5% -1.57 5 30
348 Fairfield 19.5% -1.57 5 33
349 Robert Morris 19.4% -1.59 4 31
350 Kansas City 19.3% -1.62 4 28
351 San Diego 19.3% -1.64 4 31
352 Army 19.2% -1.65 4 30
353 Brown 19.2% -1.65 3 25
354 Niagara 19.2% -1.66 3 29
355 Kansas State 19.1% -1.69 3 32
356 Santa Clara 19.0% -1.72 2 34
357 Mercyhurst 18.9% -1.72 2 32
358 Little Rock 18.8% -1.75 2 30
359 Stonehill 18.7% -1.78 2 31
360 Indiana State 18.6% -1.82 1 30
361 Fordham 18.6% -1.83 1 29
362 New Hampshire 18.5% -1.83 1 28
363 Northern Iowa 17.7% -2.06 1 35
364 UAlbany 16.4% -2.39 0 29
365 IU Indianapolis 15.6% -2.61 0 30