We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.67 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 37.7% max 51.6% mean 44.6% std 2.5% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Field Goal Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Belmont 51.6% +2.85 100 31
2 Bellarmine 51.6% +2.82 100 30
3 Michigan 50.7% +2.47 99 40
4 Saint Louis 50.7% +2.46 99 34
5 St. Thomas-Minnesota 50.5% +2.40 99 31
6 Gonzaga 50.5% +2.39 99 35
7 Miami (OH) 50.1% +2.24 98 31
8 Arkansas 50.1% +2.22 98 37
9 Purdue 49.9% +2.16 98 39
10 Liberty 49.9% +2.15 98 31
11 Arizona 49.9% +2.13 97 39
12 Miami 49.7% +2.08 97 35
13 Akron 49.6% +2.02 97 33
14 Utah Valley 49.3% +1.92 96 31
15 Utah State 49.3% +1.88 96 35
16 Duke 49.1% +1.81 96 38
17 Ohio State 49.1% +1.81 96 34
18 Boston University 49.0% +1.77 95 33
19 SMU 49.0% +1.77 95 34
20 Iowa State 48.8% +1.69 95 37
21 Iowa 48.7% +1.67 95 37
22 East Tennessee State 48.7% +1.66 94 32
23 Cornell 48.6% +1.63 94 26
24 Missouri 48.6% +1.62 94 33
25 Toledo 48.5% +1.58 93 32
26 Yale 48.5% +1.57 93 29
27 Northern Colorado 48.5% +1.57 93 29
28 Florida 48.4% +1.53 93 35
29 Montana 48.2% +1.45 92 30
30 Queens University 48.1% +1.43 92 34
31 Green Bay 48.1% +1.42 92 31
32 Wright State 48.1% +1.42 91 33
33 Colorado State 48.0% +1.38 91 33
34 Texas 47.8% +1.29 91 35
35 Providence 47.6% +1.22 91 33
36 BYU 47.6% +1.21 90 35
37 Long Island University 47.5% +1.19 90 35
38 Eastern Washington 47.5% +1.17 90 32
39 Vanderbilt 47.4% +1.15 90 36
40 Indiana 47.4% +1.11 89 32
41 UConn 47.2% +1.07 89 40
42 William & Mary 47.2% +1.06 89 30
43 Michigan State 47.2% +1.05 88 35
44 Robert Morris 47.2% +1.04 88 31
45 UNLV 47.2% +1.03 88 34
46 Navy 47.1% +1.02 88 32
47 UMBC 47.1% +1.02 87 31
48 LSU 47.1% +1.02 87 32
49 North Carolina 47.1% +1.00 87 33
50 High Point 47.1% +1.00 87 33
51 Colgate 47.0% +0.99 86 31
52 Louisville 47.0% +0.98 86 35
53 Furman 47.0% +0.98 86 32
54 Northern Iowa 47.0% +0.97 85 35
55 Oklahoma 46.9% +0.95 85 37
56 San Diego State 46.9% +0.92 85 32
57 George Mason 46.9% +0.92 85 32
58 Penn State 46.9% +0.91 84 32
59 Massachusetts 46.8% +0.91 84 32
60 Texas Tech 46.8% +0.90 84 34
61 Oakland 46.8% +0.89 84 31
62 UT Rio Grande Valley 46.7% +0.87 83 31
63 Columbia 46.7% +0.87 83 26
64 Buffalo 46.7% +0.86 83 30
65 Baylor 46.7% +0.86 82 33
66 Colorado 46.7% +0.86 82 33
67 Georgia 46.7% +0.85 82 33
68 Marshall 46.7% +0.85 82 31
69 UCLA 46.6% +0.83 81 36
70 Santa Clara 46.6% +0.81 81 34
71 NC State 46.6% +0.81 81 34
72 St. Bonaventure 46.6% +0.80 80 33
73 Utah Tech 46.6% +0.80 80 31
74 Kentucky 46.6% +0.79 80 36
75 Presbyterian 46.5% +0.78 80 30
76 Denver 46.5% +0.77 79 29
77 Washington State 46.5% +0.77 79 31
78 Syracuse 46.5% +0.76 79 32
79 Nebraska 46.5% +0.76 79 35
80 UC Santa Barbara 46.4% +0.74 78 30
81 Tulsa 46.4% +0.74 78 36
82 South Alabama 46.3% +0.71 78 31
83 UCF 46.3% +0.69 77 33
84 Austin Peay 46.3% +0.68 77 29
85 Harvard 46.2% +0.66 77 28
86 Virginia 46.2% +0.64 77 36
87 George Washington 46.2% +0.63 76 34
88 Mercer 46.1% +0.63 76 29
89 Northwestern 46.1% +0.62 76 34
90 Illinois State 46.1% +0.61 76 35
91 Illinois 46.1% +0.61 75 37
92 Tennessee 46.1% +0.60 75 37
93 Northeastern 46.1% +0.60 75 31
94 New Mexico 46.1% +0.59 74 36
95 Auburn 46.1% +0.59 74 38
96 Bethune-Cookman 46.0% +0.59 74 31
97 Weber State 46.0% +0.57 74 30
98 Murray State 46.0% +0.57 73 33
99 Texas State 46.0% +0.57 73 30
100 Lehigh 46.0% +0.57 73 33
101 Central Michigan 46.0% +0.56 73 29
102 Oklahoma State 46.0% +0.56 72 35
103 Bowling Green 45.9% +0.54 72 29
104 Portland 45.9% +0.54 72 32
105 Florida Atlantic 45.9% +0.51 71 31
106 Kansas State 45.9% +0.51 71 32
107 Pacific 45.8% +0.50 71 31
108 Cal State Northridge 45.8% +0.50 71 32
109 Minnesota 45.8% +0.49 70 33
110 Sam Houston 45.8% +0.49 70 31
111 Saint Mary's 45.8% +0.49 70 32
112 Washington 45.8% +0.48 70 33
113 Vermont 45.7% +0.45 69 32
114 Indiana State 45.7% +0.45 69 30
115 VCU 45.7% +0.44 69 36
116 Northern Kentucky 45.7% +0.44 68 31
117 Hawai'i 45.7% +0.44 68 31
118 North Dakota State 45.7% +0.43 68 32
119 Le Moyne 45.6% +0.43 68 31
120 UC San Diego 45.6% +0.42 67 32
121 James Madison 45.6% +0.42 67 32
122 Villanova 45.6% +0.42 67 33
123 Florida Gulf Coast 45.6% +0.41 66 32
124 Chattanooga 45.6% +0.40 66 29
125 Montana State 45.5% +0.38 66 29
126 North Carolina A&T 45.5% +0.37 66 28
127 Texas A&M 45.5% +0.37 65 34
128 Lipscomb 45.5% +0.37 65 30
129 Alabama 45.5% +0.37 65 35
130 Grand Canyon 45.5% +0.36 65 32
131 Siena 45.5% +0.35 64 35
132 Utah 45.4% +0.34 64 32
133 South Dakota State 45.4% +0.33 64 29
134 Central Connecticut 45.4% +0.33 63 28
135 IU Indianapolis 45.4% +0.32 63 30
136 Charlotte 45.4% +0.31 63 33
137 Central Arkansas 45.4% +0.31 63 32
138 Youngstown State 45.3% +0.29 62 29
139 Wake Forest 45.3% +0.27 62 35
140 Charleston Southern 45.2% +0.26 62 29
141 Omaha 45.2% +0.26 62 29
142 UAlbany 45.2% +0.25 61 29
143 Ohio 45.2% +0.25 61 30
144 Clemson 45.2% +0.25 61 35
145 Butler 45.2% +0.24 60 32
146 Virginia Tech 45.2% +0.24 60 32
147 St. John's 45.2% +0.23 60 37
148 Northern Arizona 45.1% +0.23 60 29
149 Kansas 45.1% +0.22 59 35
150 Stetson 45.1% +0.20 59 31
151 Southern Illinois 45.1% +0.20 59 31
152 UNC Asheville 45.1% +0.19 59 29
153 McNeese 45.1% +0.19 58 32
154 Wisconsin 45.0% +0.19 58 35
155 Mississippi State 45.0% +0.16 58 32
156 Duquesne 45.0% +0.16 57 31
157 Binghamton 45.0% +0.16 57 28
158 Wofford 45.0% +0.15 57 30
159 USC 45.0% +0.15 57 31
160 Portland State 45.0% +0.15 56 28
161 Long Beach State 44.9% +0.14 56 30
162 Samford 44.9% +0.14 56 30
163 Southern Utah 44.9% +0.12 55 29
164 Florida International 44.9% +0.12 55 29
165 Southern Miss 44.9% +0.12 55 33
166 Tennessee State 44.9% +0.12 55 30
167 UNC Greensboro 44.8% +0.10 54 32
168 Loyola Marymount 44.8% +0.09 54 31
169 Purdue Fort Wayne 44.8% +0.09 54 29
170 Idaho State 44.8% +0.09 54 30
171 Richmond 44.8% +0.09 53 31
172 Delaware 44.8% +0.09 53 30
173 Boise State 44.8% +0.09 53 30
174 Elon 44.8% +0.08 52 30
175 Houston 44.8% +0.08 52 37
176 Creighton 44.8% +0.08 52 34
177 UMass Lowell 44.8% +0.07 52 30
178 UC Irvine 44.8% +0.07 51 33
179 Wyoming 44.7% +0.05 51 32
180 Davidson 44.7% +0.05 51 32
181 Charleston 44.7% +0.05 51 31
182 Howard 44.7% +0.05 50 31
183 California 44.7% +0.04 50 33
184 Arizona State 44.7% +0.04 50 33
185 Cleveland State 44.6% +0.02 49 30
186 UIC 44.6% +0.02 49 33
187 Stephen F. Austin 44.6% +0.00 49 32
188 Ole Miss 44.6% -0.01 49 35
189 Dayton 44.5% -0.02 48 37
190 Notre Dame 44.5% -0.03 48 31
191 West Virginia 44.5% -0.04 48 35
192 Mercyhurst 44.5% -0.05 48 32
193 Eastern Michigan 44.4% -0.07 47 30
194 Xavier 44.4% -0.08 47 33
195 Tarleton State 44.4% -0.09 47 28
196 Texas Southern 44.4% -0.09 46 28
197 Arkansas State 44.3% -0.12 46 30
198 TCU 44.3% -0.12 46 35
199 UC Davis 44.3% -0.12 46 31
200 Missouri State 44.3% -0.13 45 31
201 Morehead State 44.3% -0.13 45 30
202 Southeast Missouri State 44.3% -0.13 45 30
203 New Orleans 44.3% -0.13 45 33
204 Longwood 44.2% -0.14 44 29
205 Nevada 44.2% -0.15 44 37
206 Georgia Tech 44.2% -0.16 44 31
207 Campbell 44.2% -0.17 43 32
208 Temple 44.2% -0.17 43 31
209 West Georgia 44.1% -0.18 43 30
210 Old Dominion 44.1% -0.18 43 32
211 South Dakota 44.1% -0.19 42 29
212 UAB 44.1% -0.19 42 31
213 Jacksonville 44.1% -0.20 42 30
214 Detroit Mercy 44.1% -0.20 41 30
215 Norfolk State 44.1% -0.22 41 28
216 Georgetown 44.0% -0.22 41 34
217 Fresno State 44.0% -0.22 41 31
218 Cal State Fullerton 44.0% -0.24 40 32
219 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 44.0% -0.25 40 29
220 Little Rock 44.0% -0.25 40 30
221 Florida State 44.0% -0.26 40 33
222 Troy 43.9% -0.26 39 32
223 Houston Christian 43.9% -0.27 39 30
224 Pittsburgh 43.9% -0.27 39 33
225 Middle Tennessee 43.9% -0.28 38 29
226 North Florida 43.9% -0.28 38 30
227 American University 43.9% -0.29 38 30
228 Bradley 43.8% -0.31 38 33
229 Iona 43.8% -0.31 37 32
230 Marquette 43.8% -0.32 37 32
231 Maine 43.8% -0.32 37 31
232 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 43.8% -0.33 37 30
233 Radford 43.8% -0.34 36 29
234 Marist 43.7% -0.34 36 30
235 Wichita State 43.7% -0.34 36 35
236 Holy Cross 43.7% -0.35 35 31
237 Stanford 43.7% -0.35 35 33
238 Monmouth 43.7% -0.35 35 33
239 Milwaukee 43.7% -0.35 35 31
240 San Diego 43.7% -0.36 34 31
241 Niagara 43.7% -0.37 34 29
242 Mount St. Mary's 43.7% -0.38 34 31
243 UNC Wilmington 43.6% -0.39 34 32
244 Pennsylvania 43.6% -0.40 33 29
245 Drake 43.6% -0.40 33 32
246 Western Carolina 43.6% -0.40 33 29
247 Southern 43.6% -0.41 32 31
248 Drexel 43.6% -0.42 32 32
249 Kent State 43.6% -0.42 32 32
250 Seton Hall 43.5% -0.42 32 33
251 Western Michigan 43.5% -0.43 31 29
252 DePaul 43.5% -0.44 31 32
253 South Florida 43.5% -0.44 31 33
254 Lindenwood 43.4% -0.46 30 30
255 Hofstra 43.4% -0.47 30 33
256 South Carolina 43.4% -0.48 30 32
257 Memphis 43.4% -0.48 30 32
258 Idaho 43.4% -0.49 29 33
259 Rhode Island 43.4% -0.49 29 32
260 Nicholls 43.3% -0.51 29 32
261 Alabama A&M 43.3% -0.53 29 30
262 San Francisco 43.3% -0.53 28 32
263 Kennesaw State 43.3% -0.54 28 32
264 Georgia Southern 43.2% -0.55 28 35
265 Tennessee Tech 43.2% -0.56 27 28
266 Eastern Kentucky 43.2% -0.56 27 30
267 Incarnate Word 43.2% -0.57 27 28
268 Seattle U 43.2% -0.58 27 33
269 SIU Edwardsville 43.2% -0.58 26 29
270 Brown 43.1% -0.59 26 25
271 Cincinnati 43.1% -0.60 26 33
272 Fordham 43.1% -0.61 26 29
273 Florida A&M 43.1% -0.62 25 29
274 Wagner 43.0% -0.65 25 28
275 Dartmouth 43.0% -0.65 25 25
276 Northwestern State 43.0% -0.66 24 30
277 California Baptist 42.9% -0.66 24 34
278 Sacred Heart 42.9% -0.66 24 32
279 App State 42.9% -0.67 24 30
280 San José State 42.9% -0.68 23 32
281 Jacksonville State 42.9% -0.68 23 29
282 Maryland Eastern Shore 42.9% -0.68 23 30
283 Fairfield 42.9% -0.68 23 33
284 Lafayette 42.9% -0.69 22 31
285 North Alabama 42.9% -0.69 22 28
286 UC Riverside 42.9% -0.69 22 30
287 Cal Poly 42.8% -0.71 21 31
288 North Dakota 42.8% -0.72 21 32
289 Loyola Maryland 42.8% -0.74 21 30
290 UT Arlington 42.7% -0.75 21 30
291 Oregon State 42.7% -0.76 20 33
292 New Haven 42.7% -0.76 20 28
293 South Carolina Upstate 42.7% -0.76 20 29
294 Louisiana Tech 42.7% -0.77 20 31
295 Grambling 42.6% -0.80 19 31
296 Oregon 42.6% -0.81 19 32
297 Air Force 42.5% -0.84 19 32
298 Saint Francis 42.5% -0.85 18 29
299 Quinnipiac 42.4% -0.87 18 31
300 Winthrop 42.4% -0.88 18 31
301 Abilene Christian 42.4% -0.88 18 30
302 Prairie View A&M 42.4% -0.89 17 33
303 Oral Roberts 42.4% -0.90 17 30
304 Evansville 42.3% -0.92 17 30
305 New Mexico State 42.3% -0.94 16 29
306 Stony Brook 42.2% -0.94 16 30
307 Loyola Chicago 42.2% -0.95 16 33
308 Saint Joseph's 42.2% -0.95 16 34
309 Tulane 42.2% -0.96 15 32
310 Lamar 42.2% -0.97 15 29
311 Princeton 42.1% -1.02 15 28
312 Alcorn State 42.0% -1.02 15 32
313 East Texas A&M 42.0% -1.05 14 30
314 North Carolina Central 42.0% -1.06 14 28
315 Bucknell 41.9% -1.07 14 33
316 Manhattan 41.9% -1.07 13 31
317 The Citadel 41.9% -1.09 13 30
318 East Carolina 41.8% -1.10 13 30
319 Rutgers 41.7% -1.17 13 34
320 Gardner-Webb 41.6% -1.21 12 30
321 Merrimack 41.6% -1.22 12 34
322 UT Martin 41.6% -1.22 12 30
323 Cal State Bakersfield 41.5% -1.25 12 30
324 Pepperdine 41.5% -1.26 11 30
325 UTEP 41.4% -1.28 11 28
326 Valparaiso 41.4% -1.29 11 32
327 Towson 41.4% -1.29 10 32
328 Sacramento State 41.4% -1.30 10 28
329 North Texas 41.3% -1.31 10 31
330 South Carolina State 41.2% -1.38 10 30
331 SE Louisiana 41.1% -1.39 9 30
332 UL Monroe 41.0% -1.44 9 30
333 Alabama State 41.0% -1.45 9 31
334 Rice 41.0% -1.46 9 29
335 Eastern Illinois 41.0% -1.46 8 30
336 Western Kentucky 40.9% -1.48 8 30
337 Ball State 40.9% -1.50 8 29
338 Boston College 40.8% -1.54 7 31
339 Army 40.7% -1.55 7 30
340 Mississippi Valley State 40.7% -1.55 7 32
341 Maryland 40.7% -1.58 7 33
342 Coastal Carolina 40.7% -1.58 6 31
343 La Salle 40.7% -1.58 6 31
344 NJIT 40.6% -1.59 6 32
345 Northern Illinois 40.6% -1.60 5 28
346 Kansas City 40.5% -1.64 5 28
347 Stonehill 40.5% -1.65 5 31
348 Coppin State 40.5% -1.66 5 30
349 Chicago State 40.4% -1.70 4 31
350 Saint Peter's 40.3% -1.71 4 28
351 Hampton 40.3% -1.71 4 30
352 Fairleigh Dickinson 40.3% -1.73 4 29
353 Louisiana 40.3% -1.73 3 33
354 Morgan State 40.3% -1.75 3 27
355 New Hampshire 40.1% -1.81 3 28
356 Canisius 39.8% -1.95 2 30
357 Bryant 39.7% -1.97 2 29
358 Western Illinois 39.3% -2.12 2 28
359 VMI 39.1% -2.21 2 29
360 Rider 39.0% -2.27 1 28
361 Jackson State 38.9% -2.30 1 33
362 Delaware State 38.8% -2.32 1 27
363 UTSA 38.7% -2.35 1 28
364 Southern Indiana 37.8% -2.75 0 28
365 Georgia State 37.7% -2.78 0 30