You know he knows just exactly what the facts is. "Take the Money and Run" - The Steve Miller Band

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 24.2% max 54.3% mean 39.5% std 5.8% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Three-Point Attempt Rate z Pctl GP
1 Alabama 54.3% +2.55 100 35
2 VMI 53.6% +2.42 100 29
3 Army 53.3% +2.38 99 30
4 Louisville 52.9% +2.30 99 35
5 Cal Poly 52.6% +2.26 99 31
6 Wisconsin 52.1% +2.17 99 35
7 North Florida 51.7% +2.09 98 30
8 Cornell 51.6% +2.09 98 26
9 Nebraska 51.1% +1.99 98 35
10 Eastern Kentucky 50.8% +1.94 98 30
11 Cleveland State 50.8% +1.94 97 30
12 Sacred Heart 50.7% +1.93 97 32
13 Florida State 50.6% +1.91 97 33
14 Indiana 50.5% +1.90 96 32
15 Illinois 49.7% +1.76 96 37
16 Charleston Southern 49.5% +1.73 96 29
17 Youngstown State 49.4% +1.71 96 29
18 Chattanooga 49.2% +1.68 95 29
19 Colorado State 49.1% +1.66 95 33
20 Georgia Southern 48.9% +1.62 95 35
21 Central Arkansas 48.7% +1.58 95 32
22 Dartmouth 48.7% +1.58 94 25
23 Creighton 48.2% +1.49 94 34
24 Lipscomb 47.9% +1.45 94 30
25 Bryant 47.9% +1.45 93 29
26 The Citadel 47.8% +1.43 93 30
27 Loyola Chicago 47.7% +1.41 93 33
28 Liberty 47.7% +1.41 93 31
29 Texas Tech 47.6% +1.39 92 34
30 Loyola Maryland 47.2% +1.33 92 30
31 Minnesota 47.1% +1.31 92 33
32 UT Martin 47.1% +1.31 91 30
33 George Washington 47.0% +1.30 91 34
34 Idaho 47.0% +1.29 91 33
35 Maryland 46.9% +1.27 91 33
36 Virginia 46.7% +1.24 90 36
37 Tulsa 46.7% +1.23 90 36
38 Queens University 46.5% +1.21 90 34
39 American University 46.5% +1.20 90 30
40 Furman 46.5% +1.20 89 32
41 St. Thomas-Minnesota 46.3% +1.17 89 31
42 Texas A&M 46.2% +1.16 89 34
43 East Texas A&M 46.2% +1.16 88 30
44 Delaware 46.2% +1.16 88 30
45 San Francisco 46.1% +1.14 88 32
46 Merrimack 46.1% +1.14 88 34
47 Troy 45.9% +1.11 87 32
48 App State 45.9% +1.10 87 30
49 Iona 45.9% +1.10 87 32
50 Stony Brook 45.8% +1.09 87 30
51 Belmont 45.7% +1.07 86 31
52 Villanova 45.7% +1.07 86 33
53 Drake 45.7% +1.07 86 32
54 Samford 45.7% +1.07 85 30
55 Miami (OH) 45.6% +1.05 85 31
56 Oral Roberts 45.6% +1.04 85 30
57 Buffalo 45.5% +1.04 85 30
58 Charlotte 45.4% +1.02 84 33
59 Radford 45.4% +1.02 84 29
60 Purdue Fort Wayne 45.3% +1.01 84 29
61 Middle Tennessee 45.3% +1.00 84 29
62 Indiana State 45.2% +0.99 83 30
63 Fairleigh Dickinson 45.2% +0.98 83 29
64 Saint Louis 45.1% +0.97 83 34
65 Saint Joseph's 45.1% +0.96 82 34
66 Northern Illinois 45.0% +0.95 82 28
67 Santa Clara 45.0% +0.94 82 34
68 Tulane 45.0% +0.94 82 32
69 Kent State 44.9% +0.94 81 32
70 Arkansas State 44.9% +0.93 81 30
71 Northern Kentucky 44.9% +0.93 81 31
72 Murray State 44.8% +0.92 80 33
73 Washington State 44.8% +0.91 80 31
74 Akron 44.8% +0.91 80 33
75 Stetson 44.7% +0.91 80 31
76 Montana State 44.7% +0.89 79 29
77 Vermont 44.6% +0.89 79 32
78 Princeton 44.5% +0.86 79 28
79 Davidson 44.5% +0.86 79 32
80 South Carolina 44.4% +0.85 78 32
81 Duquesne 44.4% +0.84 78 31
82 Marshall 44.3% +0.82 78 31
83 Georgia 44.3% +0.82 77 33
84 Oregon State 44.3% +0.82 77 33
85 Vanderbilt 44.2% +0.81 77 36
86 Rice 44.1% +0.80 77 29
87 UC Santa Barbara 44.1% +0.79 76 30
88 Winthrop 44.1% +0.79 76 31
89 Stanford 44.0% +0.77 76 33
90 Nicholls 43.9% +0.76 76 32
91 VCU 43.8% +0.74 75 36
92 Boston University 43.8% +0.74 75 33
93 South Florida 43.8% +0.74 75 33
94 Cincinnati 43.8% +0.73 74 33
95 UT Rio Grande Valley 43.7% +0.72 74 31
96 San Diego 43.7% +0.72 74 31
97 Oklahoma 43.6% +0.71 74 37
98 High Point 43.6% +0.71 73 33
99 Wake Forest 43.6% +0.70 73 35
100 Duke 43.5% +0.70 73 38
101 Notre Dame 43.5% +0.70 73 31
102 UC Davis 43.5% +0.69 72 31
103 Rhode Island 43.5% +0.69 72 32
104 NC State 43.4% +0.68 72 34
105 Jackson State 43.3% +0.65 71 33
106 Illinois State 43.3% +0.65 71 35
107 Elon 43.2% +0.65 71 30
108 Cal State Fullerton 43.1% +0.63 71 32
109 Evansville 43.1% +0.62 70 30
110 New Hampshire 43.1% +0.62 70 28
111 California 43.1% +0.62 70 33
112 Wofford 43.1% +0.62 70 30
113 Coastal Carolina 43.1% +0.62 69 31
114 Boise State 43.1% +0.62 69 30
115 Clemson 43.1% +0.62 69 35
116 Wyoming 43.0% +0.61 68 32
117 Iowa 43.0% +0.60 68 37
118 West Virginia 43.0% +0.60 68 35
119 Hofstra 42.8% +0.58 68 33
120 William & Mary 42.8% +0.58 67 30
121 Oregon 42.8% +0.57 67 32
122 North Dakota State 42.8% +0.56 67 32
123 Bucknell 42.7% +0.56 66 33
124 Pittsburgh 42.6% +0.54 66 33
125 Mount St. Mary's 42.6% +0.54 66 31
126 Richmond 42.6% +0.53 66 31
127 Kennesaw State 42.5% +0.53 65 32
128 James Madison 42.5% +0.52 65 32
129 Georgia State 42.4% +0.51 65 30
130 Boston College 42.4% +0.50 65 31
131 UC San Diego 42.3% +0.48 64 32
132 North Carolina 42.2% +0.47 64 33
133 Marquette 42.2% +0.46 64 32
134 IU Indianapolis 42.1% +0.45 63 30
135 UL Monroe 41.9% +0.42 63 30
136 New Mexico 41.9% +0.42 63 36
137 Idaho State 41.9% +0.41 63 30
138 Montana 41.8% +0.40 62 30
139 Air Force 41.8% +0.40 62 32
140 Northern Colorado 41.5% +0.34 62 29
141 Michigan 41.4% +0.34 62 40
142 Dayton 41.4% +0.34 61 37
143 UTSA 41.3% +0.31 61 28
144 Missouri State 41.3% +0.31 61 31
145 Bellarmine 41.2% +0.29 60 30
146 Fresno State 40.9% +0.25 60 31
147 Western Carolina 40.9% +0.25 60 29
148 Kansas State 40.9% +0.25 60 32
149 UConn 40.9% +0.25 59 40
150 Omaha 40.9% +0.24 59 29
151 Le Moyne 40.8% +0.23 59 31
152 Utah State 40.8% +0.23 59 35
153 Houston 40.7% +0.22 58 37
154 Robert Morris 40.7% +0.21 58 31
155 North Dakota 40.6% +0.20 58 32
156 Xavier 40.6% +0.19 57 33
157 Providence 40.5% +0.18 57 33
158 Stonehill 40.5% +0.18 57 31
159 Niagara 40.5% +0.17 57 29
160 Louisiana 40.5% +0.17 56 33
161 Bradley 40.5% +0.17 56 33
162 Loyola Marymount 40.4% +0.16 56 31
163 UTEP 40.3% +0.15 55 28
164 Purdue 40.2% +0.12 55 39
165 UNC Greensboro 40.2% +0.12 55 32
166 Auburn 40.2% +0.12 55 38
167 Harvard 40.2% +0.12 54 28
168 NJIT 40.1% +0.12 54 32
169 Mississippi State 40.1% +0.11 54 32
170 Ohio State 40.1% +0.10 54 34
171 Drexel 40.0% +0.10 53 32
172 New Haven 39.8% +0.06 53 28
173 Lafayette 39.8% +0.06 53 31
174 Gardner-Webb 39.8% +0.06 52 30
175 Hawai'i 39.8% +0.06 52 31
176 Stephen F. Austin 39.8% +0.05 52 32
177 BYU 39.8% +0.05 52 35
178 Southern Indiana 39.7% +0.05 51 28
179 Virginia Tech 39.7% +0.04 51 32
180 Kentucky 39.7% +0.03 51 36
181 Baylor 39.7% +0.03 51 33
182 Canisius 39.5% +0.01 50 30
183 SE Louisiana 39.5% -0.00 50 30
184 Western Kentucky 39.4% -0.00 50 30
185 Seattle U 39.4% -0.02 49 33
186 Ball State 39.4% -0.02 49 29
187 Pepperdine 39.2% -0.04 49 30
188 Mercer 39.2% -0.05 49 29
189 Northern Iowa 39.1% -0.06 48 35
190 Incarnate Word 39.1% -0.07 48 28
191 DePaul 39.0% -0.08 48 32
192 Grand Canyon 38.9% -0.10 48 32
193 South Dakota State 38.8% -0.11 47 29
194 UNC Wilmington 38.8% -0.11 47 32
195 UMBC 38.8% -0.11 47 31
196 Iowa State 38.8% -0.12 46 37
197 Saint Peter's 38.7% -0.12 46 28
198 New Mexico State 38.7% -0.13 46 29
199 Denver 38.6% -0.14 46 29
200 Alabama State 38.5% -0.17 45 31
201 Arizona State 38.4% -0.18 45 33
202 Florida Gulf Coast 38.4% -0.19 45 32
203 UC Riverside 38.3% -0.20 45 30
204 San José State 38.3% -0.20 44 32
205 Fordham 38.3% -0.20 44 29
206 Lehigh 38.3% -0.20 44 33
207 Utah Tech 38.2% -0.21 43 31
208 Florida Atlantic 38.2% -0.23 43 31
209 Jacksonville State 38.1% -0.23 43 29
210 Grambling 38.1% -0.23 43 31
211 Ohio 38.1% -0.23 42 30
212 Milwaukee 38.1% -0.23 42 31
213 Charleston 38.1% -0.23 42 31
214 Penn State 38.1% -0.24 41 32
215 Austin Peay 38.0% -0.25 41 29
216 East Tennessee State 37.8% -0.29 41 32
217 Saint Francis 37.8% -0.29 41 29
218 Northeastern 37.8% -0.29 40 31
219 Florida A&M 37.7% -0.30 40 29
220 UAlbany 37.6% -0.32 40 29
221 Columbia 37.5% -0.33 40 26
222 Utah 37.5% -0.34 39 32
223 Jacksonville 37.4% -0.36 39 30
224 Green Bay 37.3% -0.38 39 31
225 Holy Cross 37.3% -0.38 38 31
226 Syracuse 37.2% -0.40 38 32
227 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 37.2% -0.40 38 30
228 Manhattan 37.1% -0.41 38 31
229 Hampton 37.1% -0.42 37 30
230 Florida 37.0% -0.42 37 35
231 Maine 37.0% -0.42 37 31
232 Campbell 36.9% -0.44 37 32
233 TCU 36.8% -0.45 36 35
234 Valparaiso 36.8% -0.46 36 32
235 Kansas City 36.8% -0.46 36 28
236 Northern Arizona 36.7% -0.48 35 29
237 South Alabama 36.5% -0.51 35 31
238 Tennessee Tech 36.5% -0.51 35 28
239 Houston Christian 36.5% -0.51 35 30
240 Missouri 36.4% -0.52 34 33
241 Michigan State 36.4% -0.52 34 35
242 Saint Mary's 36.4% -0.53 34 32
243 UNLV 36.4% -0.53 34 34
244 Brown 36.3% -0.54 33 25
245 Old Dominion 36.2% -0.56 33 32
246 SIU Edwardsville 36.2% -0.56 33 29
247 Yale 36.1% -0.57 32 29
248 Western Michigan 36.1% -0.58 32 29
249 Wagner 36.1% -0.59 32 28
250 Southeast Missouri State 36.0% -0.60 32 30
251 South Dakota 35.9% -0.61 31 29
252 SMU 35.9% -0.62 31 34
253 Sam Houston 35.8% -0.63 31 31
254 Texas 35.8% -0.63 30 35
255 Temple 35.7% -0.64 30 31
256 South Carolina Upstate 35.6% -0.66 30 29
257 Sacramento State 35.6% -0.67 30 28
258 Ole Miss 35.5% -0.68 29 35
259 UCLA 35.5% -0.68 29 36
260 Oklahoma State 35.5% -0.68 29 35
261 Southern Utah 35.5% -0.69 29 29
262 Fairfield 35.4% -0.70 28 33
263 Portland 35.4% -0.70 28 32
264 Pennsylvania 35.4% -0.70 28 29
265 Massachusetts 35.4% -0.70 27 32
266 Pacific 35.3% -0.71 27 31
267 Colorado 35.2% -0.73 27 33
268 Kansas 35.2% -0.73 27 35
269 McNeese 35.2% -0.73 26 32
270 George Mason 35.2% -0.73 26 32
271 Georgetown 35.2% -0.74 26 34
272 St. John's 35.2% -0.74 26 37
273 Coppin State 35.2% -0.74 25 30
274 Morgan State 35.2% -0.74 25 27
275 Colgate 35.0% -0.77 25 31
276 Butler 34.9% -0.78 24 32
277 Towson 34.9% -0.78 24 32
278 Central Connecticut 34.9% -0.78 24 28
279 Longwood 34.8% -0.80 24 29
280 Long Beach State 34.8% -0.81 23 30
281 UCF 34.8% -0.81 23 33
282 Eastern Washington 34.7% -0.81 23 32
283 Howard 34.7% -0.82 23 31
284 Washington 34.6% -0.84 22 33
285 Marist 34.6% -0.84 22 30
286 LSU 34.5% -0.86 22 32
287 Portland State 34.4% -0.87 21 28
288 Monmouth 34.4% -0.87 21 33
289 Bowling Green 34.2% -0.90 21 29
290 Wright State 34.2% -0.91 21 33
291 Rutgers 34.2% -0.91 20 34
292 USC 34.1% -0.93 20 31
293 Central Michigan 34.0% -0.93 20 29
294 Oakland 34.0% -0.94 20 31
295 Alabama A&M 34.0% -0.94 19 30
296 Northwestern 34.0% -0.95 19 34
297 Lamar 33.9% -0.95 19 29
298 Northwestern State 33.9% -0.95 18 30
299 North Carolina Central 33.9% -0.96 18 28
300 Wichita State 33.8% -0.97 18 35
301 San Diego State 33.8% -0.98 18 32
302 New Orleans 33.7% -0.99 17 33
303 Alcorn State 33.7% -0.99 17 32
304 Quinnipiac 33.7% -0.99 17 31
305 Memphis 33.7% -1.00 16 32
306 North Alabama 33.7% -1.00 16 28
307 UNC Asheville 33.6% -1.01 16 29
308 Cal State Northridge 33.6% -1.01 16 32
309 Maryland Eastern Shore 33.5% -1.03 15 30
310 Louisiana Tech 33.4% -1.05 15 31
311 Western Illinois 33.3% -1.06 15 28
312 South Carolina State 33.3% -1.06 15 30
313 Georgia Tech 33.2% -1.08 14 31
314 Navy 33.1% -1.09 14 32
315 Arkansas 33.0% -1.11 14 37
316 West Georgia 33.0% -1.12 13 30
317 Utah Valley 32.9% -1.13 13 31
318 Abilene Christian 32.8% -1.14 13 30
319 UIC 32.8% -1.14 13 33
320 Weber State 32.8% -1.15 12 30
321 Florida International 32.7% -1.15 12 29
322 North Carolina A&T 32.7% -1.17 12 28
323 Toledo 32.5% -1.19 12 32
324 Texas Southern 32.5% -1.20 11 28
325 North Texas 32.3% -1.22 11 31
326 Nevada 32.3% -1.23 11 37
327 Siena 32.2% -1.25 10 35
328 Tennessee 32.1% -1.27 10 37
329 Southern 32.1% -1.27 10 31
330 California Baptist 32.0% -1.29 10 34
331 Miami 31.9% -1.31 9 35
332 Eastern Michigan 31.8% -1.32 9 30
333 La Salle 31.5% -1.37 9 31
334 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 31.4% -1.39 9 29
335 St. Bonaventure 31.3% -1.40 8 33
336 UMass Lowell 31.3% -1.41 8 30
337 East Carolina 31.1% -1.43 8 30
338 Mercyhurst 31.1% -1.44 7 32
339 Little Rock 31.0% -1.46 7 30
340 Binghamton 30.9% -1.48 7 28
341 Chicago State 30.9% -1.48 7 31
342 Gonzaga 30.8% -1.49 6 35
343 Detroit Mercy 30.7% -1.50 6 30
344 Tennessee State 30.7% -1.50 6 30
345 UT Arlington 30.7% -1.51 5 30
346 Lindenwood 30.7% -1.51 5 30
347 Norfolk State 30.6% -1.52 5 28
348 Prairie View A&M 30.6% -1.53 5 33
349 Morehead State 30.5% -1.54 4 30
350 UAB 30.5% -1.54 4 31
351 Mississippi Valley State 30.2% -1.59 4 32
352 Eastern Illinois 29.9% -1.64 4 30
353 Bethune-Cookman 29.7% -1.67 3 31
354 Long Island University 29.3% -1.74 3 35
355 Southern Illinois 29.2% -1.76 3 31
356 Cal State Bakersfield 28.9% -1.81 2 30
357 Delaware State 28.9% -1.81 2 27
358 Southern Miss 28.7% -1.85 2 33
359 UC Irvine 28.0% -1.97 2 33
360 Presbyterian 28.0% -1.97 1 30
361 Rider 27.5% -2.06 1 28
362 Seton Hall 26.8% -2.18 1 33
363 Arizona 26.3% -2.25 1 39
364 Texas State 24.6% -2.55 0 30
365 Tarleton State 24.2% -2.62 0 28