We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.59 (team entering with the better value wins 57% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 27.7% max 41.0% mean 33.8% std 2.4% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Three-Point Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Belmont 41.0% +3.02 100 31
2 Saint Louis 39.9% +2.59 100 34
3 Yale 39.4% +2.38 99 29
4 Texas Tech 39.1% +2.22 99 34
5 Boston University 38.8% +2.13 99 33
6 NC State 38.8% +2.11 99 34
7 Saint Mary's 38.7% +2.09 98 32
8 Liberty 38.6% +2.05 98 31
9 Colorado State 38.6% +2.01 98 33
10 Tulsa 38.5% +1.98 98 36
11 Purdue 38.3% +1.91 97 39
12 Iowa State 38.3% +1.90 97 37
13 Pennsylvania 38.3% +1.89 97 29
14 Cornell 38.3% +1.89 96 26
15 Akron 38.2% +1.88 96 33
16 Arkansas 38.2% +1.86 96 37
17 Bellarmine 38.1% +1.84 96 30
18 Robert Morris 38.0% +1.78 95 31
19 UCLA 37.9% +1.75 95 36
20 Buffalo 37.9% +1.74 95 30
21 Cleveland State 37.5% +1.57 95 30
22 St. Bonaventure 37.4% +1.52 94 33
23 UC Santa Barbara 37.4% +1.51 94 30
24 Sam Houston 37.2% +1.43 94 31
25 Hofstra 37.1% +1.40 93 33
26 Miami (OH) 37.1% +1.40 93 31
27 SMU 37.1% +1.39 93 34
28 Richmond 37.1% +1.39 93 31
29 Toledo 37.0% +1.38 92 32
30 California 36.9% +1.32 92 33
31 Delaware 36.8% +1.28 92 30
32 Denver 36.8% +1.27 91 29
33 Michigan 36.8% +1.26 91 40
34 Marshall 36.8% +1.26 91 31
35 UT Rio Grande Valley 36.8% +1.26 91 31
36 Wagner 36.6% +1.21 90 28
37 Arizona 36.6% +1.21 90 39
38 Montana 36.6% +1.18 90 30
39 Xavier 36.5% +1.16 90 33
40 Washington State 36.5% +1.16 89 31
41 Oklahoma 36.5% +1.14 89 37
42 Green Bay 36.4% +1.12 89 31
43 Kansas State 36.4% +1.12 88 32
44 Wright State 36.4% +1.12 88 33
45 Providence 36.4% +1.09 88 33
46 VCU 36.3% +1.08 88 36
47 Michigan State 36.3% +1.06 87 35
48 Virginia 36.2% +1.04 87 36
49 UCF 36.2% +1.04 87 33
50 Wisconsin 36.2% +1.01 87 35
51 Dartmouth 36.1% +1.00 86 25
52 Montana State 36.1% +0.99 86 29
53 Bradley 36.1% +0.98 86 33
54 Incarnate Word 36.1% +0.98 85 28
55 UMBC 36.1% +0.98 85 31
56 Lehigh 36.1% +0.97 85 33
57 St. Thomas-Minnesota 36.0% +0.96 85 31
58 Louisville 36.0% +0.95 84 35
59 Stetson 36.0% +0.94 84 31
60 Old Dominion 36.0% +0.93 84 32
61 Columbia 35.9% +0.91 84 26
62 Eastern Washington 35.9% +0.91 83 32
63 Texas A&M 35.9% +0.90 83 34
64 Navy 35.8% +0.88 83 32
65 Pacific 35.8% +0.87 82 31
66 Alabama 35.8% +0.87 82 35
67 Long Island University 35.8% +0.87 82 35
68 Howard 35.8% +0.86 82 31
69 Central Connecticut 35.8% +0.85 81 28
70 Nevada 35.8% +0.85 81 37
71 Stephen F. Austin 35.8% +0.84 81 32
72 Ohio State 35.7% +0.83 80 34
73 Sacred Heart 35.7% +0.82 80 32
74 Queens University 35.7% +0.82 80 34
75 Lipscomb 35.7% +0.81 80 30
76 Jacksonville State 35.7% +0.80 79 29
77 Villanova 35.7% +0.80 79 33
78 Charleston Southern 35.6% +0.79 79 29
79 Northern Arizona 35.6% +0.79 79 29
80 UNC Greensboro 35.6% +0.79 78 32
81 Colgate 35.6% +0.79 78 31
82 Notre Dame 35.6% +0.79 78 31
83 New Mexico 35.6% +0.79 77 36
84 Samford 35.6% +0.78 77 30
85 Iowa 35.6% +0.78 77 37
86 Vanderbilt 35.6% +0.76 77 36
87 Mercer 35.6% +0.76 76 29
88 Virginia Tech 35.5% +0.75 76 32
89 Central Arkansas 35.5% +0.72 76 32
90 Drexel 35.5% +0.72 76 32
91 Nebraska 35.5% +0.71 75 35
92 Davidson 35.4% +0.70 75 32
93 North Dakota State 35.4% +0.69 75 32
94 James Madison 35.4% +0.67 74 32
95 Western Michigan 35.3% +0.65 74 29
96 Little Rock 35.3% +0.65 74 30
97 San José State 35.3% +0.64 74 32
98 Utah 35.3% +0.64 73 32
99 Austin Peay 35.3% +0.64 73 29
100 Massachusetts 35.2% +0.61 73 32
101 Charlotte 35.2% +0.60 73 33
102 UNLV 35.2% +0.60 72 34
103 Stanford 35.2% +0.59 72 33
104 Colorado 35.2% +0.59 72 33
105 Iona 35.1% +0.58 71 32
106 George Washington 35.1% +0.58 71 34
107 Texas 35.1% +0.57 71 35
108 Detroit Mercy 35.1% +0.57 71 30
109 Georgia Tech 35.1% +0.55 70 31
110 UNC Asheville 35.1% +0.55 70 29
111 Eastern Kentucky 35.0% +0.54 70 30
112 Missouri 35.0% +0.54 70 33
113 Utah Tech 35.0% +0.53 69 31
114 Alabama A&M 35.0% +0.53 69 30
115 Oregon State 35.0% +0.53 69 33
116 Chattanooga 35.0% +0.52 68 29
117 North Florida 35.0% +0.51 68 30
118 Kent State 35.0% +0.51 68 32
119 Wofford 35.0% +0.51 68 30
120 Murray State 35.0% +0.51 67 33
121 Northern Colorado 35.0% +0.51 67 29
122 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 35.0% +0.51 67 29
123 SIU Edwardsville 35.0% +0.50 66 29
124 UNC Wilmington 35.0% +0.50 66 32
125 Santa Clara 34.9% +0.49 66 34
126 Illinois State 34.9% +0.49 66 35
127 Miami 34.9% +0.47 65 35
128 Stony Brook 34.8% +0.45 65 30
129 Southern 34.8% +0.43 65 31
130 Loyola Marymount 34.8% +0.42 65 31
131 Oakland 34.7% +0.41 64 31
132 East Tennessee State 34.7% +0.40 64 32
133 Duke 34.7% +0.39 64 38
134 Houston 34.7% +0.39 63 37
135 Harvard 34.7% +0.39 63 28
136 Northern Iowa 34.7% +0.38 63 35
137 Florida International 34.7% +0.38 63 29
138 Indiana 34.7% +0.38 62 32
139 Kansas 34.6% +0.36 62 35
140 San Francisco 34.6% +0.34 62 32
141 San Diego 34.6% +0.34 62 31
142 Illinois 34.5% +0.33 61 37
143 Weber State 34.5% +0.32 61 30
144 San Diego State 34.5% +0.32 61 32
145 BYU 34.5% +0.31 60 35
146 South Alabama 34.5% +0.31 60 31
147 Auburn 34.4% +0.28 60 38
148 Bowling Green 34.4% +0.28 60 29
149 UC Davis 34.4% +0.26 59 31
150 UConn 34.4% +0.26 59 40
151 Boise State 34.3% +0.25 59 30
152 Le Moyne 34.3% +0.23 59 31
153 Rice 34.3% +0.23 58 29
154 Elon 34.3% +0.22 58 30
155 Utah State 34.3% +0.21 58 35
156 Monmouth 34.2% +0.21 57 33
157 Norfolk State 34.2% +0.20 57 28
158 Kentucky 34.2% +0.20 57 36
159 North Carolina 34.2% +0.19 57 33
160 Saint Francis 34.2% +0.19 56 29
161 High Point 34.2% +0.18 56 33
162 Cal State Fullerton 34.2% +0.18 56 32
163 Purdue Fort Wayne 34.2% +0.17 55 29
164 Minnesota 34.2% +0.17 55 33
165 Clemson 34.1% +0.16 55 35
166 Wake Forest 34.1% +0.15 55 35
167 Creighton 34.1% +0.14 54 34
168 Idaho 34.1% +0.13 54 33
169 Omaha 34.0% +0.11 54 29
170 Utah Valley 34.0% +0.11 54 31
171 Quinnipiac 34.0% +0.11 53 31
172 Drake 34.0% +0.10 53 32
173 South Carolina State 34.0% +0.10 53 30
174 South Dakota State 34.0% +0.10 52 29
175 Cincinnati 33.9% +0.08 52 33
176 Oklahoma State 33.9% +0.08 52 35
177 Princeton 33.9% +0.07 52 28
178 UTEP 33.9% +0.07 51 28
179 Baylor 33.9% +0.05 51 33
180 Valparaiso 33.9% +0.05 51 32
181 Central Michigan 33.9% +0.05 51 29
182 Dayton 33.9% +0.05 50 37
183 Middle Tennessee 33.8% +0.03 50 29
184 Youngstown State 33.8% +0.01 50 29
185 Georgia 33.8% -0.00 49 33
186 Seattle U 33.7% -0.02 49 33
187 Northeastern 33.7% -0.04 49 31
188 Niagara 33.7% -0.04 49 29
189 Louisiana 33.6% -0.04 48 33
190 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 33.6% -0.04 48 30
191 UC Irvine 33.6% -0.05 48 33
192 Idaho State 33.6% -0.06 48 30
193 Northern Kentucky 33.6% -0.06 47 31
194 Temple 33.6% -0.06 47 31
195 Wichita State 33.5% -0.10 47 35
196 Coastal Carolina 33.5% -0.11 46 31
197 St. John's 33.5% -0.11 46 37
198 Western Carolina 33.5% -0.12 46 29
199 Radford 33.5% -0.12 46 29
200 California Baptist 33.4% -0.13 45 34
201 Tennessee 33.4% -0.14 45 37
202 Arizona State 33.4% -0.14 45 33
203 Kennesaw State 33.4% -0.14 45 32
204 Furman 33.4% -0.14 44 32
205 Western Kentucky 33.4% -0.16 44 30
206 Pittsburgh 33.4% -0.16 44 33
207 Georgia Southern 33.4% -0.16 43 35
208 Alcorn State 33.3% -0.17 43 32
209 Florida Atlantic 33.3% -0.17 43 31
210 Tennessee State 33.3% -0.17 43 30
211 Vermont 33.3% -0.17 42 32
212 Gonzaga 33.3% -0.20 42 35
213 Canisius 33.3% -0.20 42 30
214 George Mason 33.3% -0.20 41 32
215 Nicholls 33.3% -0.21 41 32
216 Fairfield 33.2% -0.21 41 33
217 Winthrop 33.2% -0.22 41 31
218 Northwestern State 33.2% -0.23 40 30
219 Florida Gulf Coast 33.2% -0.23 40 32
220 TCU 33.2% -0.25 40 35
221 Ole Miss 33.2% -0.25 40 35
222 West Georgia 33.1% -0.26 39 30
223 Duquesne 33.1% -0.28 39 31
224 Texas Southern 33.1% -0.28 39 28
225 LSU 33.1% -0.28 38 32
226 Florida State 33.1% -0.28 38 33
227 West Virginia 33.1% -0.29 38 35
228 Cal Poly 33.0% -0.30 38 31
229 Troy 33.0% -0.30 37 32
230 Bethune-Cookman 33.0% -0.31 37 31
231 Southern Utah 33.0% -0.32 37 29
232 Northwestern 33.0% -0.32 37 34
233 William & Mary 33.0% -0.33 36 30
234 Wyoming 33.0% -0.33 36 32
235 American University 33.0% -0.33 36 30
236 Missouri State 33.0% -0.33 35 31
237 Prairie View A&M 32.9% -0.34 35 33
238 Lamar 32.9% -0.37 35 29
239 Syracuse 32.9% -0.37 35 32
240 Arkansas State 32.9% -0.38 34 30
241 UC San Diego 32.8% -0.39 34 32
242 Butler 32.7% -0.42 34 32
243 Merrimack 32.7% -0.42 34 34
244 Mount St. Mary's 32.7% -0.44 33 31
245 Long Beach State 32.7% -0.45 33 30
246 North Dakota 32.7% -0.45 33 32
247 North Carolina Central 32.6% -0.47 32 28
248 UAlbany 32.6% -0.49 32 29
249 Florida A&M 32.6% -0.49 32 29
250 Portland State 32.6% -0.50 32 28
251 Loyola Maryland 32.6% -0.50 31 30
252 Holy Cross 32.5% -0.51 31 31
253 DePaul 32.5% -0.51 31 32
254 Binghamton 32.5% -0.52 30 28
255 South Florida 32.5% -0.53 30 33
256 Tarleton State 32.5% -0.54 30 28
257 New Mexico State 32.4% -0.55 30 29
258 Eastern Michigan 32.4% -0.55 29 30
259 IU Indianapolis 32.4% -0.55 29 30
260 Cal State Northridge 32.4% -0.56 29 32
261 Rutgers 32.4% -0.57 29 34
262 Mississippi State 32.4% -0.57 28 32
263 Penn State 32.4% -0.58 28 32
264 South Dakota 32.3% -0.59 28 29
265 Grambling 32.3% -0.59 27 31
266 Milwaukee 32.3% -0.62 27 31
267 Campbell 32.3% -0.62 27 32
268 Evansville 32.2% -0.63 27 30
269 UMass Lowell 32.2% -0.63 26 30
270 UL Monroe 32.2% -0.63 26 30
271 Texas State 32.2% -0.64 26 30
272 Marist 32.2% -0.64 26 30
273 Lafayette 32.2% -0.67 25 31
274 Fresno State 32.1% -0.68 25 31
275 Chicago State 32.1% -0.68 25 31
276 Mercyhurst 32.1% -0.68 24 32
277 Oregon 32.1% -0.71 24 32
278 Army 32.0% -0.73 24 30
279 Tulane 32.0% -0.73 24 32
280 Manhattan 32.0% -0.73 23 31
281 Morehead State 32.0% -0.74 23 30
282 Oral Roberts 32.0% -0.74 23 30
283 The Citadel 32.0% -0.75 23 30
284 Sacramento State 31.9% -0.78 22 28
285 Georgetown 31.8% -0.80 22 34
286 Grand Canyon 31.8% -0.81 22 32
287 New Orleans 31.8% -0.83 21 33
288 Alabama State 31.8% -0.84 21 31
289 Jacksonville 31.7% -0.84 21 30
290 McNeese 31.7% -0.84 21 32
291 Houston Christian 31.7% -0.84 20 30
292 Eastern Illinois 31.7% -0.85 20 30
293 Maryland 31.7% -0.86 20 33
294 Stonehill 31.7% -0.86 20 31
295 Morgan State 31.7% -0.86 19 27
296 Loyola Chicago 31.7% -0.86 19 33
297 Marquette 31.7% -0.87 19 32
298 Hawai'i 31.7% -0.87 18 31
299 USC 31.7% -0.87 18 31
300 UIC 31.6% -0.90 18 33
301 Presbyterian 31.6% -0.91 18 30
302 UC Riverside 31.6% -0.91 17 30
303 Memphis 31.6% -0.91 17 32
304 North Carolina A&T 31.6% -0.91 17 28
305 Indiana State 31.5% -0.92 16 30
306 VMI 31.5% -0.94 16 29
307 Washington 31.5% -0.95 16 33
308 South Carolina Upstate 31.4% -0.97 16 29
309 Longwood 31.4% -0.98 15 29
310 Pepperdine 31.4% -0.99 15 30
311 Jackson State 31.4% -0.99 15 33
312 Ball State 31.4% -0.99 15 29
313 East Texas A&M 31.3% -1.04 14 30
314 Maine 31.2% -1.06 14 31
315 Florida 31.2% -1.07 14 35
316 Tennessee Tech 31.1% -1.10 13 28
317 South Carolina 31.1% -1.12 13 32
318 Rhode Island 31.1% -1.13 13 32
319 Abilene Christian 31.0% -1.13 13 30
320 Gardner-Webb 31.0% -1.14 12 30
321 Saint Peter's 31.0% -1.15 12 28
322 Western Illinois 30.9% -1.17 12 28
323 Northern Illinois 30.9% -1.18 12 28
324 Southeast Missouri State 30.9% -1.18 11 30
325 Saint Joseph's 30.8% -1.25 11 34
326 Coppin State 30.7% -1.29 11 30
327 North Alabama 30.7% -1.29 10 28
328 Bucknell 30.6% -1.30 10 33
329 Georgia State 30.6% -1.30 10 30
330 Siena 30.6% -1.31 10 35
331 Charleston 30.6% -1.33 9 31
332 Air Force 30.6% -1.34 9 32
333 New Hampshire 30.5% -1.36 9 28
334 Seton Hall 30.5% -1.37 9 33
335 App State 30.4% -1.40 8 30
336 NJIT 30.4% -1.40 8 32
337 UT Martin 30.3% -1.42 8 30
338 Brown 30.3% -1.43 7 25
339 Fairleigh Dickinson 30.3% -1.46 7 29
340 New Haven 30.2% -1.49 7 28
341 Ohio 30.1% -1.54 7 30
342 La Salle 30.0% -1.56 6 31
343 Bryant 30.0% -1.58 6 29
344 Portland 29.9% -1.60 6 32
345 Southern Indiana 29.9% -1.60 5 28
346 Mississippi Valley State 29.5% -1.80 5 32
347 Lindenwood 29.4% -1.82 5 30
348 Boston College 29.4% -1.83 5 31
349 Towson 29.4% -1.83 4 32
350 East Carolina 29.3% -1.86 4 30
351 UTSA 29.2% -1.91 4 28
352 UT Arlington 29.1% -1.94 4 30
353 Cal State Bakersfield 29.0% -1.98 3 30
354 Maryland Eastern Shore 29.0% -1.99 3 30
355 Southern Miss 28.9% -2.01 3 33
356 Fordham 28.9% -2.05 2 29
357 Hampton 28.8% -2.05 2 30
358 North Texas 28.7% -2.13 2 31
359 Louisiana Tech 28.5% -2.18 2 31
360 Kansas City 28.4% -2.23 1 28
361 Delaware State 28.4% -2.24 1 27
362 SE Louisiana 28.4% -2.24 1 30
363 Southern Illinois 27.8% -2.48 1 31
364 UAB 27.8% -2.48 0 31
365 Rider 27.7% -2.55 0 28