I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.58 (team entering with the better value wins 56% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 3.5% max 18.7% mean 9.4% std 2.4% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Block Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Seton Hall 18.7% +3.84 100 33
2 Virginia 17.4% +3.31 100 36
3 Michigan 16.4% +2.88 99 40
4 McNeese 15.9% +2.68 99 32
5 Louisiana Tech 15.7% +2.58 99 31
6 Kansas 15.6% +2.58 99 35
7 Syracuse 15.4% +2.47 98 32
8 San Diego State 15.3% +2.45 98 32
9 USC 14.9% +2.27 98 31
10 Georgia 14.9% +2.26 98 33
11 UC Irvine 14.9% +2.26 97 33
12 UConn 14.6% +2.17 97 40
13 Kennesaw State 14.5% +2.11 97 32
14 Seattle U 14.0% +1.91 96 33
15 Merrimack 13.9% +1.84 96 34
16 Long Island University 13.8% +1.83 96 35
17 Utah Valley 13.7% +1.75 96 31
18 Cal State Bakersfield 13.6% +1.72 95 30
19 Michigan State 13.5% +1.71 95 35
20 Florida Atlantic 13.5% +1.69 95 31
21 Florida International 13.2% +1.57 95 29
22 North Texas 13.2% +1.57 94 31
23 Marshall 13.1% +1.51 94 31
24 St. Bonaventure 13.1% +1.51 94 33
25 Arkansas 13.0% +1.48 93 37
26 Illinois 13.0% +1.47 93 37
27 Charleston 12.9% +1.45 93 31
28 Ole Miss 12.9% +1.45 93 35
29 Tulane 12.8% +1.42 92 32
30 Arizona State 12.8% +1.38 92 33
31 Lamar 12.7% +1.38 92 29
32 Memphis 12.7% +1.38 91 32
33 UNLV 12.7% +1.36 91 34
34 Kentucky 12.7% +1.36 91 36
35 TCU 12.6% +1.30 91 35
36 Presbyterian 12.5% +1.27 90 30
37 Little Rock 12.5% +1.27 90 30
38 Houston 12.5% +1.26 90 37
39 South Carolina Upstate 12.4% +1.25 90 29
40 Vanderbilt 12.4% +1.24 89 36
41 Florida 12.4% +1.24 89 35
42 West Georgia 12.4% +1.24 89 30
43 Saint Joseph's 12.4% +1.23 88 34
44 Prairie View A&M 12.4% +1.23 88 33
45 UT Martin 12.3% +1.17 88 30
46 St. John's 12.1% +1.13 88 37
47 Cincinnati 12.1% +1.12 87 33
48 Rhode Island 12.0% +1.06 87 32
49 Dayton 12.0% +1.06 87 37
50 Davidson 12.0% +1.06 87 32
51 Brown 12.0% +1.05 86 25
52 UTSA 11.9% +1.02 86 28
53 Monmouth 11.9% +1.02 86 33
54 UIC 11.8% +1.00 85 33
55 BYU 11.8% +1.00 85 35
56 Nevada 11.8% +1.00 85 37
57 UAlbany 11.8% +0.98 85 29
58 Oregon 11.7% +0.94 84 32
59 Loyola Chicago 11.6% +0.92 84 33
60 Florida State 11.6% +0.91 84 33
61 Tennessee 11.6% +0.90 84 37
62 Boston College 11.6% +0.90 83 31
63 Quinnipiac 11.6% +0.90 83 31
64 Central Michigan 11.6% +0.89 83 29
65 Auburn 11.6% +0.89 82 38
66 William & Mary 11.5% +0.86 82 30
67 SIU Edwardsville 11.5% +0.86 82 29
68 East Tennessee State 11.5% +0.85 82 32
69 Wright State 11.4% +0.83 81 33
70 Georgia Tech 11.4% +0.80 81 31
71 Saint Peter's 11.3% +0.79 81 28
72 Portland State 11.3% +0.79 80 28
73 Belmont 11.3% +0.76 80 31
74 James Madison 11.3% +0.76 80 32
75 South Carolina State 11.3% +0.76 80 30
76 Wake Forest 11.2% +0.75 79 35
77 Alabama 11.2% +0.74 79 35
78 Temple 11.2% +0.74 79 31
79 VCU 11.2% +0.74 79 36
80 Idaho State 11.2% +0.74 78 30
81 Washington 11.2% +0.74 78 33
82 Bethune-Cookman 11.2% +0.72 78 31
83 Mississippi State 11.1% +0.72 77 32
84 North Alabama 11.1% +0.69 77 28
85 Florida Gulf Coast 11.1% +0.68 77 32
86 Gonzaga 11.1% +0.68 77 35
87 Alabama State 11.0% +0.68 76 31
88 SMU 11.0% +0.66 76 34
89 Charleston Southern 11.0% +0.65 76 29
90 Mercyhurst 11.0% +0.64 76 32
91 South Florida 10.9% +0.62 75 33
92 Eastern Michigan 10.9% +0.61 75 30
93 Central Connecticut 10.9% +0.61 75 28
94 Coppin State 10.9% +0.60 74 30
95 Harvard 10.8% +0.58 74 28
96 Louisiana 10.8% +0.58 74 33
97 Arizona 10.7% +0.55 74 39
98 Lindenwood 10.7% +0.55 73 30
99 East Carolina 10.7% +0.55 73 30
100 Oklahoma 10.7% +0.55 73 37
101 Oregon State 10.7% +0.54 73 33
102 Bryant 10.7% +0.54 72 29
103 Navy 10.7% +0.51 72 32
104 Middle Tennessee 10.7% +0.51 72 29
105 NC State 10.7% +0.51 71 34
106 George Washington 10.6% +0.50 71 34
107 Houston Christian 10.6% +0.50 71 30
108 High Point 10.6% +0.49 71 33
109 Bowling Green 10.6% +0.49 70 29
110 Texas State 10.6% +0.48 70 30
111 Northwestern 10.6% +0.47 70 34
112 Missouri 10.6% +0.47 70 33
113 Southern 10.6% +0.47 69 31
114 Duke 10.5% +0.47 69 38
115 Southern Miss 10.5% +0.47 69 33
116 Tennessee State 10.5% +0.46 68 30
117 Stanford 10.5% +0.45 68 33
118 Santa Clara 10.5% +0.43 68 34
119 Stony Brook 10.5% +0.43 68 30
120 Grand Canyon 10.5% +0.43 67 32
121 Hofstra 10.4% +0.40 67 33
122 Loyola Marymount 10.4% +0.39 67 31
123 Georgetown 10.3% +0.38 66 34
124 South Alabama 10.3% +0.37 66 31
125 Xavier 10.3% +0.37 66 33
126 Rice 10.3% +0.36 66 29
127 LSU 10.3% +0.35 65 32
128 New Orleans 10.2% +0.33 65 33
129 App State 10.2% +0.32 65 30
130 North Carolina A&T 10.2% +0.31 65 28
131 UTEP 10.1% +0.29 64 28
132 UC Riverside 10.1% +0.29 64 30
133 Howard 10.0% +0.26 64 31
134 Stephen F. Austin 10.0% +0.26 63 32
135 North Carolina Central 10.0% +0.25 63 28
136 Charlotte 10.0% +0.25 63 33
137 UNC Asheville 10.0% +0.25 63 29
138 Evansville 10.0% +0.24 62 30
139 Valparaiso 10.0% +0.24 62 32
140 Towson 10.0% +0.23 62 32
141 Baylor 10.0% +0.23 62 33
142 Texas Southern 10.0% +0.22 61 28
143 Southern Illinois 10.0% +0.22 61 31
144 Georgia Southern 9.9% +0.22 61 35
145 Southeast Missouri State 9.9% +0.21 60 30
146 Stonehill 9.9% +0.20 60 31
147 Yale 9.9% +0.18 60 29
148 Hawai'i 9.8% +0.18 60 31
149 Northern Kentucky 9.8% +0.18 59 31
150 Miami 9.8% +0.16 59 35
151 Oakland 9.8% +0.15 59 31
152 UCLA 9.8% +0.14 59 36
153 Northern Iowa 9.8% +0.14 58 35
154 Eastern Washington 9.7% +0.14 58 32
155 Southern Indiana 9.7% +0.14 58 28
156 Saint Mary's 9.7% +0.13 57 32
157 Texas Tech 9.7% +0.13 57 34
158 Tarleton State 9.7% +0.12 57 28
159 Wichita State 9.7% +0.11 57 35
160 Loyola Maryland 9.6% +0.09 56 30
161 Rutgers 9.6% +0.08 56 34
162 Boston University 9.6% +0.07 56 33
163 Providence 9.6% +0.06 55 33
164 Pittsburgh 9.5% +0.04 55 33
165 Detroit Mercy 9.5% +0.04 55 30
166 Drexel 9.5% +0.03 55 32
167 Saint Louis 9.5% +0.03 54 34
168 Bradley 9.5% +0.02 54 33
169 Jacksonville State 9.5% +0.01 54 29
170 Kent State 9.4% -0.01 54 32
171 Fairfield 9.4% -0.01 53 33
172 DePaul 9.4% -0.01 53 32
173 UAB 9.4% -0.01 53 31
174 UT Arlington 9.3% -0.03 52 30
175 Rider 9.3% -0.05 52 28
176 Furman 9.3% -0.05 52 32
177 Youngstown State 9.3% -0.05 52 29
178 Dartmouth 9.3% -0.05 51 25
179 Southern Utah 9.2% -0.08 51 29
180 Radford 9.2% -0.10 51 29
181 Mercer 9.2% -0.10 51 29
182 Kansas State 9.1% -0.11 50 32
183 Purdue Fort Wayne 9.1% -0.12 50 29
184 Oral Roberts 9.1% -0.12 50 30
185 Omaha 9.1% -0.13 49 29
186 Maine 9.1% -0.13 49 31
187 Clemson 9.1% -0.13 49 35
188 Maryland 9.1% -0.13 49 33
189 Alcorn State 9.1% -0.14 48 32
190 New Mexico 9.1% -0.15 48 36
191 George Mason 9.1% -0.15 48 32
192 Louisville 9.1% -0.15 48 35
193 Siena 9.1% -0.15 47 35
194 Delaware 9.1% -0.15 47 30
195 Le Moyne 9.1% -0.15 47 31
196 NJIT 9.0% -0.16 46 32
197 Troy 9.0% -0.16 46 32
198 Marist 9.0% -0.17 46 30
199 Liberty 9.0% -0.17 46 31
200 West Virginia 9.0% -0.17 45 35
201 Mount St. Mary's 9.0% -0.18 45 31
202 Duquesne 9.0% -0.18 45 31
203 New Mexico State 9.0% -0.19 45 29
204 Elon 8.9% -0.20 44 30
205 Murray State 8.9% -0.21 44 33
206 North Dakota State 8.8% -0.26 44 32
207 Portland 8.8% -0.26 43 32
208 Purdue 8.8% -0.27 43 39
209 Nebraska 8.7% -0.28 43 35
210 Niagara 8.7% -0.28 43 29
211 Cal State Northridge 8.7% -0.30 42 32
212 Colorado 8.7% -0.30 42 33
213 Norfolk State 8.7% -0.31 42 28
214 Virginia Tech 8.7% -0.31 41 32
215 UL Monroe 8.7% -0.31 41 30
216 Utah State 8.7% -0.31 41 35
217 Wofford 8.6% -0.32 41 30
218 Eastern Illinois 8.6% -0.33 40 30
219 Sacred Heart 8.6% -0.33 40 32
220 East Texas A&M 8.6% -0.33 40 30
221 Cal State Fullerton 8.6% -0.33 40 32
222 California 8.6% -0.33 39 33
223 Wisconsin 8.6% -0.35 39 35
224 Ohio 8.6% -0.35 39 30
225 Milwaukee 8.5% -0.36 38 31
226 Drake 8.5% -0.36 38 32
227 Morgan State 8.5% -0.38 38 27
228 Texas A&M 8.5% -0.38 38 34
229 Vermont 8.5% -0.39 37 32
230 Pennsylvania 8.5% -0.39 37 29
231 Akron 8.5% -0.39 37 33
232 Canisius 8.5% -0.40 37 30
233 North Carolina 8.5% -0.40 36 33
234 Missouri State 8.5% -0.40 36 31
235 Hampton 8.4% -0.42 36 30
236 Utah 8.4% -0.42 35 32
237 Green Bay 8.4% -0.42 35 31
238 Marquette 8.4% -0.42 35 32
239 Eastern Kentucky 8.4% -0.43 35 30
240 Buffalo 8.4% -0.43 34 30
241 SE Louisiana 8.3% -0.45 34 30
242 Iowa State 8.3% -0.45 34 37
243 Colgate 8.3% -0.45 34 31
244 Georgia State 8.3% -0.46 33 30
245 Morehead State 8.3% -0.47 33 30
246 Ball State 8.2% -0.49 33 29
247 Minnesota 8.2% -0.50 32 33
248 Nicholls 8.2% -0.51 32 32
249 Kansas City 8.2% -0.51 32 28
250 Iona 8.1% -0.53 32 32
251 UCF 8.1% -0.53 31 33
252 Northeastern 8.1% -0.53 31 31
253 Old Dominion 8.1% -0.53 31 32
254 Coastal Carolina 8.1% -0.55 30 31
255 Jackson State 8.1% -0.56 30 33
256 Indiana State 8.1% -0.56 30 30
257 Florida A&M 8.1% -0.56 30 29
258 Binghamton 8.0% -0.57 29 28
259 Jacksonville 8.0% -0.58 29 30
260 Columbia 8.0% -0.58 29 26
261 Butler 8.0% -0.58 29 32
262 Miami (OH) 8.0% -0.61 28 31
263 Queens University 7.9% -0.61 28 34
264 Mississippi Valley State 7.9% -0.61 28 32
265 Winthrop 7.9% -0.62 27 31
266 Maryland Eastern Shore 7.8% -0.65 27 30
267 Toledo 7.8% -0.65 27 32
268 Northern Arizona 7.8% -0.65 27 29
269 La Salle 7.8% -0.65 26 31
270 North Dakota 7.8% -0.66 26 32
271 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7.8% -0.66 26 30
272 The Citadel 7.8% -0.66 26 30
273 Long Beach State 7.8% -0.67 25 30
274 UT Rio Grande Valley 7.8% -0.68 25 31
275 Sacramento State 7.8% -0.68 25 28
276 Washington State 7.7% -0.70 24 31
277 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 7.7% -0.70 24 29
278 Alabama A&M 7.7% -0.71 24 30
279 San Francisco 7.7% -0.73 24 32
280 IU Indianapolis 7.6% -0.73 23 30
281 UC San Diego 7.6% -0.73 23 32
282 Western Michigan 7.6% -0.74 23 29
283 UC Davis 7.6% -0.74 23 31
284 Chattanooga 7.6% -0.74 22 29
285 Sam Houston 7.6% -0.76 22 31
286 UMass Lowell 7.6% -0.76 22 30
287 Lehigh 7.6% -0.76 21 33
288 Utah Tech 7.5% -0.78 21 31
289 San Diego 7.5% -0.78 21 31
290 Abilene Christian 7.5% -0.79 21 30
291 Pepperdine 7.5% -0.79 20 30
292 Texas 7.5% -0.80 20 35
293 St. Thomas-Minnesota 7.5% -0.81 20 31
294 Grambling 7.5% -0.81 20 31
295 Indiana 7.4% -0.83 19 32
296 California Baptist 7.3% -0.86 19 34
297 Notre Dame 7.3% -0.86 19 31
298 Western Carolina 7.3% -0.86 18 29
299 Cornell 7.3% -0.86 18 26
300 Arkansas State 7.3% -0.86 18 30
301 Cleveland State 7.3% -0.87 18 30
302 Richmond 7.3% -0.87 17 31
303 UNC Wilmington 7.3% -0.88 17 32
304 Montana State 7.3% -0.88 17 29
305 Oklahoma State 7.2% -0.92 16 35
306 Lipscomb 7.2% -0.93 16 30
307 South Dakota State 7.1% -0.95 16 29
308 Tennessee Tech 7.1% -0.96 16 28
309 Ohio State 7.0% -0.99 15 34
310 Samford 7.0% -0.99 15 30
311 Wyoming 7.0% -1.01 15 32
312 Northern Colorado 7.0% -1.01 15 29
313 Incarnate Word 7.0% -1.02 14 28
314 Pacific 6.9% -1.04 14 31
315 Western Kentucky 6.9% -1.05 14 30
316 Fordham 6.8% -1.06 13 29
317 Colorado State 6.8% -1.07 13 33
318 Robert Morris 6.8% -1.07 13 31
319 Central Arkansas 6.8% -1.08 13 32
320 Tulsa 6.8% -1.08 12 36
321 Air Force 6.8% -1.09 12 32
322 Massachusetts 6.7% -1.13 12 32
323 Northwestern State 6.7% -1.13 12 30
324 Gardner-Webb 6.6% -1.15 11 30
325 Creighton 6.6% -1.16 11 34
326 UC Santa Barbara 6.6% -1.17 11 30
327 Fresno State 6.6% -1.17 10 31
328 UMBC 6.5% -1.21 10 31
329 Wagner 6.5% -1.22 10 28
330 Iowa 6.4% -1.23 10 37
331 San José State 6.4% -1.23 9 32
332 Idaho 6.4% -1.25 9 33
333 Princeton 6.4% -1.26 9 28
334 Austin Peay 6.4% -1.26 9 29
335 Lafayette 6.4% -1.26 8 31
336 VMI 6.4% -1.26 8 29
337 Montana 6.2% -1.32 8 30
338 Illinois State 6.2% -1.34 7 35
339 South Carolina 6.2% -1.35 7 32
340 Longwood 6.1% -1.35 7 29
341 New Haven 6.1% -1.37 7 28
342 South Dakota 6.0% -1.43 6 29
343 Bellarmine 5.9% -1.44 6 30
344 Boise State 5.9% -1.45 6 30
345 Manhattan 5.9% -1.46 5 31
346 Bucknell 5.9% -1.47 5 33
347 Villanova 5.9% -1.47 5 33
348 UNC Greensboro 5.8% -1.48 5 32
349 Stetson 5.8% -1.52 4 31
350 Cal Poly 5.7% -1.55 4 31
351 New Hampshire 5.6% -1.60 4 28
352 Northern Illinois 5.3% -1.72 4 28
353 Delaware State 5.2% -1.73 3 27
354 Penn State 5.2% -1.75 3 32
355 Western Illinois 5.2% -1.75 3 28
356 Denver 5.0% -1.82 2 29
357 Saint Francis 4.9% -1.87 2 29
358 Holy Cross 4.9% -1.88 2 31
359 Chicago State 4.9% -1.88 2 31
360 Army 4.8% -1.93 1 30
361 Fairleigh Dickinson 4.7% -1.96 1 29
362 American University 4.4% -2.09 1 30
363 Weber State 4.3% -2.12 1 30
364 Campbell 3.7% -2.38 0 32
365 North Florida 3.5% -2.47 0 30