You pay for this but they give you that. "Hey Hey, My My" - Neil Young

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.69 (team entering with the better value wins 64% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 0.68 max 2.19 mean 1.20 std 0.25 (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Assist-to-Turnover Ratio z Pctl GP
1 Purdue 2.19 +3.93 100 39
2 Northwestern 2.02 +3.26 100 34
3 Gonzaga 1.91 +2.84 99 35
4 Arkansas 1.91 +2.83 99 37
5 Liberty 1.90 +2.77 99 31
6 Nebraska 1.86 +2.61 99 35
7 UCLA 1.81 +2.41 98 36
8 Wisconsin 1.78 +2.32 98 35
9 Houston 1.75 +2.20 98 37
10 Xavier 1.74 +2.16 98 33
11 Cornell 1.74 +2.13 97 26
12 Vanderbilt 1.71 +2.01 97 36
13 Yale 1.71 +2.01 97 29
14 Iowa State 1.70 +1.99 96 37
15 NC State 1.68 +1.92 96 34
16 High Point 1.67 +1.87 96 33
17 North Carolina 1.67 +1.86 96 33
18 Alabama 1.66 +1.85 95 35
19 Utah State 1.66 +1.84 95 35
20 UConn 1.66 +1.83 95 40
21 St. Thomas-Minnesota 1.65 +1.77 95 31
22 Texas A&M 1.64 +1.75 94 34
23 Indiana 1.63 +1.72 94 32
24 Illinois 1.62 +1.68 94 37
25 Minnesota 1.62 +1.67 93 33
26 Michigan State 1.61 +1.63 93 35
27 Akron 1.61 +1.62 93 33
28 Michigan 1.59 +1.56 93 40
29 IU Indianapolis 1.59 +1.54 92 30
30 UAB 1.58 +1.53 92 31
31 St. John's 1.58 +1.51 92 37
32 Northern Iowa 1.58 +1.51 91 35
33 Iowa 1.58 +1.50 91 37
34 Duke 1.57 +1.45 91 38
35 Santa Clara 1.54 +1.37 91 34
36 Samford 1.54 +1.35 90 30
37 Villanova 1.54 +1.34 90 33
38 Queens University 1.52 +1.29 90 34
39 Toledo 1.52 +1.28 90 32
40 Lipscomb 1.52 +1.27 89 30
41 Arizona 1.52 +1.26 89 39
42 SMU 1.51 +1.25 89 34
43 Virginia 1.51 +1.23 88 36
44 Wofford 1.50 +1.19 88 30
45 Oakland 1.50 +1.18 88 31
46 South Florida 1.49 +1.16 88 33
47 Colorado 1.49 +1.16 87 33
48 Mercyhurst 1.49 +1.15 87 32
49 Central Arkansas 1.48 +1.12 87 32
50 Saint Louis 1.48 +1.11 87 34
51 Kentucky 1.48 +1.11 86 36
52 Chattanooga 1.47 +1.08 86 29
53 Miami (OH) 1.47 +1.05 86 31
54 Texas Tech 1.45 +1.01 85 34
55 Oklahoma 1.45 +1.00 85 37
56 Belmont 1.45 +0.99 85 31
57 Miami 1.45 +0.99 85 35
58 Florida 1.45 +0.98 84 35
59 Tennessee 1.44 +0.97 84 37
60 Nevada 1.44 +0.96 84 37
61 TCU 1.44 +0.94 84 35
62 Northern Colorado 1.44 +0.94 83 29
63 Bellarmine 1.44 +0.93 83 30
64 Louisville 1.43 +0.92 83 35
65 Navy 1.43 +0.91 82 32
66 William & Mary 1.43 +0.90 82 30
67 Richmond 1.43 +0.90 82 31
68 Austin Peay 1.42 +0.88 82 29
69 Colgate 1.41 +0.85 81 31
70 Robert Morris 1.41 +0.82 81 31
71 Cincinnati 1.41 +0.82 81 33
72 Ohio State 1.41 +0.82 80 34
73 New Mexico 1.40 +0.80 80 36
74 Ole Miss 1.39 +0.74 80 35
75 Clemson 1.39 +0.73 80 35
76 UCF 1.38 +0.73 79 33
77 Georgia 1.38 +0.73 79 33
78 Tulsa 1.38 +0.73 79 36
79 Georgetown 1.38 +0.73 79 34
80 Marshall 1.38 +0.73 78 31
81 Stephen F. Austin 1.38 +0.71 78 32
82 McNeese 1.38 +0.71 78 32
83 Virginia Tech 1.38 +0.70 77 32
84 Butler 1.37 +0.69 77 32
85 North Dakota State 1.37 +0.69 77 32
86 South Alabama 1.37 +0.68 77 31
87 East Tennessee State 1.37 +0.67 76 32
88 Creighton 1.37 +0.67 76 34
89 Bradley 1.37 +0.66 76 33
90 Marquette 1.37 +0.66 76 32
91 Saint Mary's 1.36 +0.63 75 32
92 St. Bonaventure 1.34 +0.57 75 33
93 Northeastern 1.34 +0.56 75 31
94 South Carolina 1.34 +0.55 74 32
95 LSU 1.34 +0.55 74 32
96 UNC Wilmington 1.33 +0.53 74 32
97 Northern Kentucky 1.33 +0.52 74 31
98 California 1.33 +0.52 73 33
99 Elon 1.33 +0.52 73 30
100 Marist 1.33 +0.51 73 30
101 Washington 1.32 +0.49 73 33
102 Temple 1.32 +0.49 72 31
103 Wake Forest 1.32 +0.48 72 35
104 VCU 1.32 +0.48 72 36
105 Lafayette 1.32 +0.47 71 31
106 Siena 1.32 +0.47 71 35
107 Baylor 1.32 +0.46 71 33
108 Vermont 1.31 +0.45 71 32
109 Saint Joseph's 1.31 +0.45 70 34
110 Cal State Fullerton 1.31 +0.44 70 32
111 Florida State 1.31 +0.44 70 33
112 Green Bay 1.31 +0.43 70 31
113 Davidson 1.31 +0.43 69 32
114 Florida Gulf Coast 1.31 +0.42 69 32
115 Colorado State 1.31 +0.42 69 33
116 Purdue Fort Wayne 1.30 +0.41 68 29
117 Merrimack 1.30 +0.40 68 34
118 Kansas State 1.30 +0.40 68 32
119 Auburn 1.30 +0.39 68 38
120 Kansas 1.30 +0.39 67 35
121 UC San Diego 1.29 +0.37 67 32
122 Massachusetts 1.29 +0.34 67 32
123 Pennsylvania 1.29 +0.34 66 29
124 Wyoming 1.28 +0.32 66 32
125 Drake 1.28 +0.32 66 32
126 Winthrop 1.28 +0.32 66 31
127 San Francisco 1.28 +0.31 65 32
128 Buffalo 1.28 +0.31 65 30
129 San Diego 1.27 +0.26 65 31
130 UMBC 1.26 +0.25 65 31
131 UT Rio Grande Valley 1.26 +0.25 64 31
132 Harvard 1.26 +0.23 64 28
133 Cal State Northridge 1.26 +0.23 64 32
134 Indiana State 1.26 +0.23 63 30
135 South Dakota State 1.26 +0.22 63 29
136 Sam Houston 1.26 +0.22 63 31
137 Troy 1.25 +0.19 63 32
138 Western Kentucky 1.25 +0.19 62 30
139 DePaul 1.25 +0.18 62 32
140 Furman 1.25 +0.18 62 32
141 Charleston 1.24 +0.17 62 31
142 Utah Valley 1.24 +0.15 61 31
143 BYU 1.24 +0.14 61 35
144 Missouri State 1.23 +0.14 61 31
145 Oklahoma State 1.23 +0.14 60 35
146 George Mason 1.23 +0.13 60 32
147 Dayton 1.23 +0.11 60 37
148 Milwaukee 1.23 +0.10 60 31
149 Army 1.23 +0.10 59 30
150 Boston University 1.23 +0.10 59 33
151 New Mexico State 1.22 +0.09 59 29
152 Monmouth 1.22 +0.06 59 33
153 Oregon 1.21 +0.06 58 32
154 Mercer 1.21 +0.04 58 29
155 George Washington 1.21 +0.04 58 34
156 Penn State 1.20 +0.02 57 32
157 Central Connecticut 1.20 +0.02 57 28
158 Rutgers 1.20 +0.01 57 34
159 Sacred Heart 1.20 +0.01 57 32
160 San Diego State 1.20 +0.01 56 32
161 American University 1.20 +0.00 56 30
162 Utah 1.20 -0.02 56 32
163 Eastern Kentucky 1.19 -0.02 55 30
164 Northern Arizona 1.19 -0.03 55 29
165 Stetson 1.19 -0.03 55 31
166 Tulane 1.19 -0.03 55 32
167 Sacramento State 1.19 -0.05 54 28
168 USC 1.18 -0.06 54 31
169 Fordham 1.18 -0.07 54 29
170 Illinois State 1.18 -0.07 54 35
171 Wright State 1.18 -0.07 53 33
172 Seton Hall 1.18 -0.08 53 33
173 Old Dominion 1.18 -0.08 53 32
174 Duquesne 1.18 -0.09 52 31
175 Georgia Tech 1.18 -0.09 52 31
176 Pittsburgh 1.18 -0.10 52 33
177 Texas 1.17 -0.11 52 35
178 UIC 1.17 -0.12 51 33
179 Middle Tennessee 1.17 -0.12 51 29
180 Loyola Maryland 1.17 -0.12 51 30
181 UC Davis 1.17 -0.12 51 31
182 Detroit Mercy 1.17 -0.12 50 30
183 Fairfield 1.17 -0.12 50 33
184 West Virginia 1.17 -0.12 50 35
185 Utah Tech 1.17 -0.13 49 31
186 Quinnipiac 1.16 -0.14 49 31
187 Murray State 1.16 -0.14 49 33
188 Central Michigan 1.16 -0.14 49 29
189 Syracuse 1.16 -0.14 48 32
190 Iona 1.16 -0.15 48 32
191 Oregon State 1.16 -0.15 48 33
192 UNC Greensboro 1.16 -0.15 48 32
193 Cleveland State 1.16 -0.15 47 30
194 Lamar 1.16 -0.15 47 29
195 Ball State 1.16 -0.16 47 29
196 UC Irvine 1.16 -0.16 46 33
197 UNLV 1.16 -0.16 46 34
198 Southern 1.16 -0.17 46 31
199 Hofstra 1.16 -0.17 46 33
200 App State 1.16 -0.18 45 30
201 Missouri 1.16 -0.18 45 33
202 Portland 1.15 -0.19 45 32
203 Niagara 1.15 -0.20 45 29
204 Ohio 1.15 -0.21 44 30
205 Kent State 1.15 -0.21 44 32
206 Lehigh 1.14 -0.22 44 33
207 Stony Brook 1.14 -0.22 43 30
208 Columbia 1.14 -0.24 43 26
209 Weber State 1.14 -0.25 43 30
210 Manhattan 1.14 -0.25 43 31
211 Seattle U 1.14 -0.26 42 33
212 Denver 1.14 -0.26 42 29
213 Arizona State 1.14 -0.26 42 33
214 Howard 1.13 -0.26 41 31
215 Chicago State 1.13 -0.26 41 31
216 Portland State 1.13 -0.27 41 28
217 Providence 1.13 -0.27 41 33
218 The Citadel 1.13 -0.28 40 30
219 Charleston Southern 1.13 -0.29 40 29
220 Houston Christian 1.13 -0.30 40 30
221 Bowling Green 1.12 -0.30 40 29
222 Pacific 1.12 -0.30 39 31
223 Princeton 1.12 -0.31 39 28
224 Stanford 1.12 -0.32 39 33
225 VMI 1.12 -0.32 38 29
226 Brown 1.12 -0.33 38 25
227 East Texas A&M 1.11 -0.36 38 30
228 Southern Illinois 1.11 -0.37 38 31
229 Valparaiso 1.11 -0.37 37 32
230 UC Santa Barbara 1.10 -0.38 37 30
231 Idaho 1.10 -0.39 37 33
232 Kennesaw State 1.10 -0.40 37 32
233 Mississippi State 1.10 -0.40 36 32
234 Eastern Washington 1.10 -0.41 36 32
235 North Dakota 1.10 -0.42 36 32
236 Wichita State 1.09 -0.42 35 35
237 Omaha 1.09 -0.43 35 29
238 West Georgia 1.09 -0.43 35 30
239 Boston College 1.09 -0.44 35 31
240 Charlotte 1.09 -0.44 34 33
241 Nicholls 1.08 -0.46 34 32
242 Washington State 1.08 -0.47 34 31
243 Youngstown State 1.08 -0.47 34 29
244 Little Rock 1.08 -0.49 33 30
245 Boise State 1.07 -0.50 33 30
246 Saint Peter's 1.07 -0.52 33 28
247 Tennessee State 1.07 -0.52 32 30
248 James Madison 1.07 -0.52 32 32
249 Notre Dame 1.07 -0.53 32 31
250 Loyola Chicago 1.07 -0.53 32 33
251 La Salle 1.07 -0.53 31 31
252 North Texas 1.07 -0.54 31 31
253 Holy Cross 1.06 -0.54 31 31
254 Montana State 1.06 -0.55 30 29
255 Florida International 1.06 -0.55 30 29
256 Western Michigan 1.06 -0.55 30 29
257 Long Island University 1.06 -0.57 30 35
258 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1.06 -0.57 29 30
259 Pepperdine 1.06 -0.57 29 30
260 Loyola Marymount 1.06 -0.57 29 31
261 Le Moyne 1.06 -0.58 29 31
262 Arkansas State 1.05 -0.60 28 30
263 SIU Edwardsville 1.05 -0.60 28 29
264 Grand Canyon 1.05 -0.60 28 32
265 UAlbany 1.05 -0.61 27 29
266 Dartmouth 1.05 -0.62 27 25
267 Florida Atlantic 1.04 -0.63 27 31
268 North Florida 1.04 -0.65 27 30
269 Drexel 1.04 -0.66 26 32
270 San José State 1.03 -0.66 26 32
271 Eastern Michigan 1.03 -0.67 26 30
272 Montana 1.03 -0.67 26 30
273 Western Carolina 1.03 -0.68 25 29
274 Idaho State 1.03 -0.68 25 30
275 Jacksonville State 1.02 -0.70 25 29
276 Delaware 1.02 -0.71 24 30
277 Georgia Southern 1.02 -0.71 24 35
278 Georgia State 1.01 -0.76 24 30
279 Alabama A&M 1.01 -0.77 24 30
280 Fresno State 1.00 -0.81 23 31
281 Texas State 1.00 -0.81 23 30
282 North Carolina Central 0.99 -0.82 23 28
283 Saint Francis 0.99 -0.83 23 29
284 Louisiana Tech 0.99 -0.83 22 31
285 Bucknell 0.99 -0.84 22 33
286 UL Monroe 0.99 -0.84 22 30
287 Southeast Missouri State 0.99 -0.84 21 30
288 South Dakota 0.99 -0.84 21 29
289 Hampton 0.99 -0.85 21 30
290 Morehead State 0.99 -0.85 21 30
291 East Carolina 0.98 -0.86 20 30
292 Memphis 0.98 -0.89 20 32
293 Jacksonville 0.98 -0.89 20 30
294 Fairleigh Dickinson 0.98 -0.89 20 29
295 Hawai'i 0.97 -0.92 19 31
296 Evansville 0.97 -0.92 19 30
297 Wagner 0.97 -0.93 19 28
298 New Haven 0.97 -0.94 18 28
299 Morgan State 0.96 -0.94 18 27
300 Bethune-Cookman 0.96 -0.95 18 31
301 Incarnate Word 0.96 -0.95 18 28
302 UMass Lowell 0.96 -0.96 17 30
303 Radford 0.96 -0.96 17 29
304 Presbyterian 0.96 -0.96 17 30
305 Louisiana 0.96 -0.97 16 33
306 Lindenwood 0.95 -0.98 16 30
307 Long Beach State 0.95 -0.98 16 30
308 UTEP 0.95 -0.99 16 28
309 Maine 0.95 -1.00 15 31
310 Northwestern State 0.95 -1.01 15 30
311 Prairie View A&M 0.94 -1.02 15 33
312 Canisius 0.94 -1.04 15 30
313 SE Louisiana 0.94 -1.05 14 30
314 Rice 0.93 -1.06 14 29
315 Towson 0.93 -1.07 14 32
316 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 0.93 -1.07 13 29
317 Campbell 0.93 -1.08 13 32
318 New Hampshire 0.93 -1.09 13 28
319 Coastal Carolina 0.93 -1.09 13 31
320 South Carolina Upstate 0.91 -1.14 12 29
321 Rider 0.91 -1.14 12 28
322 UC Riverside 0.91 -1.15 12 30
323 UT Martin 0.91 -1.15 12 30
324 NJIT 0.91 -1.17 11 32
325 Stonehill 0.90 -1.19 11 31
326 Alabama State 0.90 -1.19 11 31
327 New Orleans 0.90 -1.19 10 33
328 North Carolina A&T 0.89 -1.22 10 28
329 Binghamton 0.89 -1.23 10 28
330 Longwood 0.89 -1.23 10 29
331 Southern Utah 0.89 -1.24 9 29
332 Eastern Illinois 0.89 -1.24 9 30
333 Oral Roberts 0.89 -1.24 9 30
334 Rhode Island 0.89 -1.25 9 32
335 Norfolk State 0.87 -1.30 8 28
336 Cal Poly 0.87 -1.31 8 31
337 Abilene Christian 0.87 -1.31 8 30
338 Mount St. Mary's 0.87 -1.32 7 31
339 Kansas City 0.87 -1.32 7 28
340 Southern Miss 0.87 -1.32 7 33
341 Bryant 0.87 -1.33 7 29
342 UNC Asheville 0.86 -1.37 6 29
343 Tennessee Tech 0.85 -1.41 6 28
344 Maryland 0.84 -1.43 6 33
345 Florida A&M 0.84 -1.45 5 29
346 Texas Southern 0.84 -1.45 5 28
347 UTSA 0.84 -1.45 5 28
348 North Alabama 0.83 -1.46 5 28
349 California Baptist 0.83 -1.47 4 34
350 Maryland Eastern Shore 0.83 -1.48 4 30
351 South Carolina State 0.83 -1.49 4 30
352 Air Force 0.82 -1.50 4 32
353 Southern Indiana 0.82 -1.52 3 28
354 Alcorn State 0.82 -1.53 3 32
355 Grambling 0.81 -1.56 3 31
356 Cal State Bakersfield 0.79 -1.62 2 30
357 Mississippi Valley State 0.77 -1.70 2 32
358 Northern Illinois 0.77 -1.71 2 28
359 UT Arlington 0.77 -1.72 2 30
360 Jackson State 0.75 -1.79 1 33
361 Coppin State 0.74 -1.84 1 30
362 Tarleton State 0.74 -1.85 1 28
363 Delaware State 0.73 -1.87 1 27
364 Gardner-Webb 0.69 -2.03 0 30
365 Western Illinois 0.68 -2.06 0 28