You know he knows just exactly what the facts is. "Take the Money and Run" - The Steve Miller Band

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.72 (team entering with the better value wins 67% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 3.6% max 93.5% mean 49.2% std 17.7% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Win Percentage (WP) z Pctl GP
1 Miami (OH) 93.5% +2.51 100 31
2 Michigan 92.5% +2.45 100 40
3 Arizona 92.3% +2.44 99 39
4 Duke 92.1% +2.43 99 38
5 Gonzaga 88.6% +2.23 99 35
6 UConn 85.0% +2.02 99 40
7 High Point 84.8% +2.02 98 33
8 Virginia 83.3% +1.93 98 36
9 Saint Louis 82.4% +1.88 98 34
10 Akron 81.8% +1.85 98 33
11 McNeese 81.3% +1.81 97 32
12 Saint Mary's 81.3% +1.81 97 32
13 Stephen F. Austin 81.3% +1.81 97 32
14 Houston 81.1% +1.80 96 37
15 St. John's 81.1% +1.80 96 37
16 Belmont 80.6% +1.78 96 31
17 Nebraska 80.0% +1.74 96 35
18 Utah State 80.0% +1.74 95 35
19 Iowa State 78.4% +1.65 95 37
20 UNC Wilmington 78.1% +1.64 95 32
21 Tulsa 77.8% +1.62 95 36
22 VCU 77.8% +1.62 94 36
23 Florida 77.1% +1.58 94 35
24 Michigan State 77.1% +1.58 94 35
25 Purdue 76.9% +1.57 93 39
26 Yale 75.9% +1.51 93 29
27 Arkansas 75.7% +1.50 93 37
28 Illinois 75.7% +1.50 93 37
29 Navy 75.0% +1.46 92 32
30 North Dakota State 75.0% +1.46 92 32
31 Vanderbilt 75.0% +1.46 92 36
32 Miami 74.3% +1.42 91 35
33 Liberty 74.2% +1.41 91 31
34 California Baptist 73.5% +1.38 91 34
35 Santa Clara 73.5% +1.38 91 34
36 North Carolina 72.7% +1.33 90 33
37 South Florida 72.7% +1.33 90 33
38 Villanova 72.7% +1.33 90 33
39 Alabama 71.4% +1.26 90 35
40 Hawai'i 71.0% +1.23 89 31
41 UMBC 71.0% +1.23 89 31
42 Utah Valley 71.0% +1.23 89 31
43 New Mexico 69.4% +1.15 88 36
44 Austin Peay 69.0% +1.12 88 29
45 George Mason 68.8% +1.11 88 32
46 Kent State 68.8% +1.11 88 32
47 Clemson 68.6% +1.10 87 35
48 Kansas 68.6% +1.10 87 35
49 Long Island University 68.6% +1.10 87 35
50 Louisville 68.6% +1.10 87 35
51 Wisconsin 68.6% +1.10 86 35
52 St. Thomas-Minnesota 67.7% +1.05 86 31
53 Merrimack 67.6% +1.04 86 34
54 Texas Tech 67.6% +1.04 85 34
55 Dayton 67.6% +1.04 85 37
56 Tennessee 67.6% +1.04 85 37
57 Georgia 66.7% +0.99 85 33
58 Hofstra 66.7% +0.99 84 33
59 Tennessee State 66.7% +0.99 84 30
60 UCLA 66.7% +0.99 84 36
61 BYU 65.7% +0.94 84 35
62 Siena 65.7% +0.94 83 35
63 TCU 65.7% +0.94 83 35
64 Wichita State 65.7% +0.94 83 35
65 East Tennessee State 65.6% +0.93 82 32
66 San Diego State 65.6% +0.93 82 32
67 UC San Diego 65.6% +0.93 82 32
68 Iowa 64.9% +0.89 82 37
69 Nevada 64.9% +0.89 81 37
70 Saint Joseph's 64.7% +0.88 81 34
71 Texas A&M 64.7% +0.88 81 34
72 Charleston 64.5% +0.87 80 31
73 Howard 64.5% +0.87 80 31
74 Robert Morris 64.5% +0.87 80 31
75 Winthrop 64.5% +0.87 80 31
76 California 63.6% +0.82 79 33
77 Seton Hall 63.6% +0.82 79 33
78 UC Irvine 63.6% +0.82 79 33
79 UCF 63.6% +0.82 79 33
80 Wright State 63.6% +0.82 78 33
81 Boise State 63.3% +0.80 78 30
82 UT Martin 63.3% +0.80 78 30
83 Illinois State 62.9% +0.77 77 35
84 Northern Iowa 62.9% +0.77 77 35
85 Central Arkansas 62.5% +0.75 77 32
86 Grand Canyon 62.5% +0.75 77 32
87 Troy 62.5% +0.75 76 32
88 Vermont 62.5% +0.75 76 32
89 Ohio State 61.8% +0.71 76 34
90 Sam Houston 61.3% +0.69 76 31
91 South Alabama 61.3% +0.69 75 31
92 UAB 61.3% +0.69 75 31
93 Kentucky 61.1% +0.68 75 36
94 Portland State 60.7% +0.65 74 28
95 Bradley 60.6% +0.65 74 33
96 Colorado State 60.6% +0.65 74 33
97 Fairfield 60.6% +0.65 74 33
98 Missouri 60.6% +0.65 73 33
99 Murray State 60.6% +0.65 73 33
100 Stanford 60.6% +0.65 73 33
101 Arkansas State 60.0% +0.61 73 30
102 Marist 60.0% +0.61 72 30
103 West Virginia 60.0% +0.61 72 35
104 William & Mary 60.0% +0.61 72 30
105 Furman 59.4% +0.58 71 32
106 Virginia Tech 59.4% +0.58 71 32
107 NC State 58.8% +0.55 71 34
108 SMU 58.8% +0.55 71 34
109 Queens University 58.8% +0.55 70 34
110 Northern Colorado 58.6% +0.53 70 29
111 Pennsylvania 58.6% +0.53 70 29
112 Coastal Carolina 58.1% +0.50 70 31
113 Marshall 58.1% +0.50 69 31
114 Quinnipiac 58.1% +0.50 69 31
115 Auburn 57.9% +0.49 69 38
116 Seattle U 57.6% +0.48 68 33
117 Central Connecticut 57.1% +0.45 68 28
118 Harvard 57.1% +0.45 68 28
119 Oklahoma State 57.1% +0.45 68 35
120 Saint Peter's 57.1% +0.45 67 28
121 Texas 57.1% +0.45 67 35
122 Oklahoma 56.8% +0.43 67 37
123 App State 56.7% +0.42 66 30
124 Lipscomb 56.7% +0.42 66 30
125 Morehead State 56.7% +0.42 66 30
126 Southeast Missouri State 56.7% +0.42 66 30
127 Texas State 56.7% +0.42 65 30
128 Wofford 56.7% +0.42 65 30
129 Cal State Northridge 56.3% +0.40 65 32
130 Davidson 56.3% +0.40 65 32
131 Indiana 56.3% +0.40 64 32
132 Iona 56.3% +0.40 64 32
133 Kennesaw State 56.3% +0.40 64 32
134 Mercer 55.2% +0.34 63 29
135 SIU Edwardsville 55.2% +0.34 63 29
136 Louisiana Tech 54.8% +0.32 63 31
137 North Texas 54.8% +0.32 63 31
138 Northern Kentucky 54.8% +0.32 62 31
139 UC Davis 54.8% +0.32 62 31
140 USC 54.8% +0.32 62 31
141 UT Rio Grande Valley 54.8% +0.32 62 31
142 Cincinnati 54.5% +0.30 61 33
143 Florida State 54.5% +0.30 61 33
144 Idaho 54.5% +0.30 61 33
145 Monmouth 54.5% +0.30 60 33
146 Georgia Southern 54.3% +0.29 60 35
147 Columbia 53.8% +0.26 60 26
148 Samford 53.3% +0.24 60 30
149 UC Santa Barbara 53.3% +0.24 59 30
150 UT Arlington 53.3% +0.24 59 30
151 Western Kentucky 53.3% +0.24 59 30
152 James Madison 53.1% +0.22 59 32
153 Toledo 53.1% +0.22 58 32
154 Towson 53.1% +0.22 58 32
155 Tulane 53.1% +0.22 58 32
156 Valparaiso 53.1% +0.22 57 32
157 Wyoming 53.1% +0.22 57 32
158 George Washington 52.9% +0.21 57 34
159 Bowling Green 51.7% +0.14 57 29
160 Montana State 51.7% +0.14 56 29
161 Bethune-Cookman 51.6% +0.14 56 31
162 Colgate 51.6% +0.14 56 31
163 Duquesne 51.6% +0.14 55 31
164 Florida Atlantic 51.6% +0.14 55 31
165 Green Bay 51.6% +0.14 55 31
166 Pacific 51.6% +0.14 55 31
167 Utah Tech 51.6% +0.14 54 31
168 Arizona State 51.5% +0.13 54 33
169 Colorado 51.5% +0.13 54 33
170 Oregon State 51.5% +0.13 54 33
171 Southern Miss 51.5% +0.13 53 33
172 UIC 51.5% +0.13 53 33
173 Wake Forest 51.4% +0.13 53 35
174 Alabama A&M 50.0% +0.05 52 30
175 Buffalo 50.0% +0.05 52 30
176 Butler 50.0% +0.05 52 32
177 Cal State Fullerton 50.0% +0.05 52 32
178 Cornell 50.0% +0.05 51 26
179 DePaul 50.0% +0.05 51 32
180 Detroit Mercy 50.0% +0.05 51 30
181 Drexel 50.0% +0.05 51 32
182 Massachusetts 50.0% +0.05 50 32
183 Montana 50.0% +0.05 50 30
184 Rhode Island 50.0% +0.05 50 32
185 San Francisco 50.0% +0.05 49 32
186 Stony Brook 50.0% +0.05 49 30
187 UNLV 50.0% +0.05 49 34
188 Lindenwood 50.0% +0.05 49 30
189 Baylor 48.5% -0.04 48 33
190 Boston University 48.5% -0.04 48 33
191 Charlotte 48.5% -0.04 48 33
192 Lehigh 48.5% -0.04 48 33
193 St. Bonaventure 48.5% -0.04 47 33
194 Washington 48.5% -0.04 47 33
195 Oakland 48.4% -0.04 47 31
196 Southern Illinois 48.4% -0.04 46 31
197 Temple 48.4% -0.04 46 31
198 Fordham 48.3% -0.05 46 29
199 Middle Tennessee 48.3% -0.05 46 29
200 Purdue Fort Wayne 48.3% -0.05 45 29
201 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 48.3% -0.05 45 29
202 Creighton 47.1% -0.12 45 34
203 Georgetown 47.1% -0.12 45 34
204 LSU 46.9% -0.13 44 32
205 Mercyhurst 46.9% -0.13 44 32
206 NJIT 46.9% -0.13 44 32
207 North Dakota 46.9% -0.13 43 32
208 Syracuse 46.9% -0.13 43 32
209 American University 46.7% -0.14 43 30
210 Weber State 46.7% -0.14 43 30
211 Minnesota 45.5% -0.21 42 33
212 New Orleans 45.5% -0.21 42 33
213 Prairie View A&M 45.5% -0.21 42 33
214 Providence 45.5% -0.21 41 33
215 Xavier 45.5% -0.21 41 33
216 Le Moyne 45.2% -0.23 41 31
217 Loyola Marymount 45.2% -0.23 41 31
218 Mount St. Mary's 45.2% -0.23 40 31
219 Richmond 45.2% -0.23 40 31
220 Southern 45.2% -0.23 40 31
221 Florida A&M 44.8% -0.24 40 29
222 Longwood 44.8% -0.24 39 29
223 New Mexico State 44.8% -0.24 39 29
224 Radford 44.8% -0.24 39 29
225 South Dakota 44.8% -0.24 38 29
226 Western Carolina 44.8% -0.24 38 29
227 Northwestern 44.1% -0.28 38 34
228 Campbell 43.8% -0.31 38 32
229 Florida Gulf Coast 43.8% -0.31 37 32
230 Ohio 43.3% -0.33 37 30
231 West Georgia 43.3% -0.33 37 30
232 Ole Miss 42.9% -0.36 37 35
233 Missouri State 41.9% -0.41 36 31
234 Notre Dame 41.9% -0.41 36 31
235 Charleston Southern 41.4% -0.44 36 29
236 Denver 41.4% -0.44 35 29
237 Florida International 41.4% -0.44 35 29
238 Jacksonville State 41.4% -0.44 35 29
239 Omaha 41.4% -0.44 35 29
240 UNC Asheville 41.4% -0.44 34 29
241 Youngstown State 41.4% -0.44 34 29
242 Rutgers 41.2% -0.45 34 34
243 Morgan State 40.7% -0.48 34 27
244 Eastern Washington 40.6% -0.48 33 32
245 Memphis 40.6% -0.48 33 32
246 Mississippi State 40.6% -0.48 33 32
247 Nicholls 40.6% -0.48 32 32
248 Portland 40.6% -0.48 32 32
249 Sacred Heart 40.6% -0.48 32 32
250 South Carolina 40.6% -0.48 32 32
251 UNC Greensboro 40.6% -0.48 31 32
252 Elon 40.0% -0.52 31 30
253 Presbyterian 40.0% -0.52 31 30
254 UMass Lowell 40.0% -0.52 30 30
255 Pittsburgh 39.4% -0.55 30 33
256 New Haven 39.3% -0.56 30 28
257 Norfolk State 39.3% -0.56 30 28
258 Wagner 39.3% -0.56 29 28
259 Cal Poly 38.7% -0.59 29 31
260 Fresno State 38.7% -0.59 29 31
261 Grambling 38.7% -0.59 29 31
262 Rice 37.9% -0.63 28 29
263 South Dakota State 37.9% -0.63 28 29
264 Drake 37.5% -0.66 28 32
265 Kansas State 37.5% -0.66 27 32
266 Marquette 37.5% -0.66 27 32
267 Oregon 37.5% -0.66 27 32
268 Penn State 37.5% -0.66 27 32
269 Abilene Christian 36.7% -0.71 26 30
270 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 36.7% -0.71 26 30
271 Bellarmine 36.7% -0.71 26 30
272 Hampton 36.7% -0.71 26 30
273 Jackson State 36.4% -0.72 25 33
274 Maryland 36.4% -0.72 25 33
275 Dartmouth 36.0% -0.74 25 25
276 North Carolina Central 35.7% -0.76 24 28
277 Tarleton State 35.7% -0.76 24 28
278 Tennessee Tech 35.7% -0.76 24 28
279 Texas Southern 35.7% -0.76 24 28
280 Boston College 35.5% -0.77 23 31
281 Georgia Tech 35.5% -0.77 23 31
282 Manhattan 35.5% -0.77 23 31
283 Milwaukee 35.5% -0.77 23 31
284 Washington State 35.5% -0.77 22 31
285 Ball State 34.5% -0.83 22 29
286 Chattanooga 34.5% -0.83 22 29
287 Lamar 34.5% -0.83 21 29
288 South Carolina Upstate 34.5% -0.83 21 29
289 Old Dominion 34.4% -0.84 21 32
290 Delaware 33.3% -0.89 21 30
291 East Carolina 33.3% -0.89 20 30
292 Eastern Illinois 33.3% -0.89 20 30
293 Houston Christian 33.3% -0.89 20 30
294 Idaho State 33.3% -0.89 20 30
295 Jacksonville 33.3% -0.89 19 30
296 Little Rock 33.3% -0.89 19 30
297 Louisiana 33.3% -0.89 19 33
298 Loyola Maryland 33.3% -0.89 18 30
299 Lafayette 32.3% -0.95 18 31
300 San Diego 32.3% -0.95 18 31
301 Stetson 32.3% -0.95 18 31
302 Stonehill 32.3% -0.95 17 31
303 Incarnate Word 32.1% -0.96 17 28
304 North Carolina A&T 32.1% -0.96 17 28
305 Utah 31.3% -1.01 16 32
306 Western Michigan 31.0% -1.02 16 29
307 Bucknell 30.3% -1.07 16 33
308 Army 30.0% -1.08 16 30
309 Canisius 30.0% -1.08 15 30
310 East Texas A&M 30.0% -1.08 15 30
311 Eastern Kentucky 30.0% -1.08 15 30
312 Eastern Michigan 30.0% -1.08 15 30
313 Indiana State 30.0% -1.08 14 30
314 Alabama State 29.0% -1.14 14 31
315 Holy Cross 29.0% -1.14 14 31
316 Princeton 28.6% -1.16 13 28
317 UTEP 28.6% -1.16 13 28
318 Alcorn State 28.1% -1.19 13 32
319 Brown 28.0% -1.20 13 25
320 Central Michigan 27.6% -1.22 12 29
321 Fairleigh Dickinson 27.6% -1.22 12 29
322 UAlbany 27.6% -1.22 12 29
323 Loyola Chicago 27.3% -1.24 12 33
324 Cleveland State 26.7% -1.27 11 30
325 Georgia State 26.7% -1.27 11 30
326 Long Beach State 26.7% -1.27 11 30
327 Northwestern State 26.7% -1.27 10 30
328 SE Louisiana 26.7% -1.27 10 30
329 South Carolina State 26.7% -1.27 10 30
330 The Citadel 26.7% -1.27 10 30
331 UC Riverside 26.7% -1.27 9 30
332 La Salle 25.8% -1.32 9 31
333 New Hampshire 25.0% -1.37 9 28
334 North Alabama 25.0% -1.37 9 28
335 Northern Illinois 25.0% -1.37 8 28
336 Sacramento State 25.0% -1.37 8 28
337 San José State 25.0% -1.37 8 32
338 Bryant 24.1% -1.41 7 29
339 Niagara 24.1% -1.41 7 29
340 Northern Arizona 24.1% -1.41 7 29
341 Southern Utah 24.1% -1.41 7 29
342 Maryland Eastern Shore 23.3% -1.46 6 30
343 Oral Roberts 23.3% -1.46 6 30
344 Pepperdine 23.3% -1.46 6 30
345 Maine 22.6% -1.50 5 31
346 Northeastern 22.6% -1.50 5 31
347 Cal State Bakersfield 20.0% -1.65 5 30
348 Coppin State 20.0% -1.65 5 30
349 Chicago State 19.4% -1.68 4 31
350 Delaware State 18.5% -1.73 4 27
351 Binghamton 17.9% -1.77 4 28
352 Southern Indiana 17.9% -1.77 4 28
353 Saint Francis 17.2% -1.80 3 29
354 Evansville 16.7% -1.84 3 30
355 IU Indianapolis 16.7% -1.84 3 30
356 North Florida 16.7% -1.84 2 30
357 Rider 10.7% -2.17 2 28
358 UTSA 10.7% -2.17 2 28
359 VMI 10.3% -2.19 2 29
360 Air Force 9.4% -2.25 1 32
361 Western Illinois 7.1% -2.37 1 28
362 Gardner-Webb 6.7% -2.40 1 30
363 UL Monroe 6.7% -2.40 1 30
364 Mississippi Valley State 6.3% -2.42 0 32
365 Kansas City 3.6% -2.58 0 28