I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.75 (team entering with the better value wins 68% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min -20.5 max 18.1 mean -0.3 std 6.7 (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Scoring Margin z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 18.1 +2.75 100 35
2 Duke 18.0 +2.73 100 38
3 Michigan 17.8 +2.71 99 40
4 Arizona 16.8 +2.55 99 39
5 Iowa State 16.4 +2.49 99 37
6 Florida 15.6 +2.38 99 35
7 Saint Louis 14.9 +2.27 98 34
8 Houston 14.5 +2.22 98 37
9 Illinois 14.5 +2.21 98 37
10 High Point 13.6 +2.08 98 33
11 Louisville 11.7 +1.80 97 35
12 Virginia 11.6 +1.78 97 36
13 Saint Mary's 11.5 +1.77 97 32
14 UConn 11.4 +1.75 96 40
15 Akron 11.4 +1.75 96 33
16 St. John's 11.3 +1.73 96 37
17 Purdue 11.1 +1.70 96 39
18 Nebraska 10.8 +1.66 95 35
19 Vanderbilt 10.8 +1.65 95 36
20 Michigan State 10.5 +1.61 95 35
21 Miami 10.3 +1.58 95 35
22 South Florida 10.2 +1.58 94 33
23 Utah State 10.2 +1.57 94 35
24 Miami (OH) 9.8 +1.51 94 31
25 Georgia 9.6 +1.48 93 33
26 Tulsa 9.4 +1.46 93 36
27 Santa Clara 9.4 +1.45 93 34
28 Belmont 9.4 +1.44 93 31
29 Tennessee 9.3 +1.43 92 37
30 McNeese 9.2 +1.42 92 32
31 New Mexico 9.2 +1.42 92 36
32 Arkansas 9.2 +1.42 91 37
33 VCU 9.1 +1.40 91 36
34 Alabama 8.5 +1.31 91 35
35 Navy 8.4 +1.31 91 32
36 Yale 8.3 +1.29 90 29
37 Iowa 8.3 +1.28 90 37
38 Stephen F. Austin 8.3 +1.28 90 32
39 BYU 8.1 +1.26 90 35
40 North Carolina 8.1 +1.26 89 33
41 St. Thomas-Minnesota 7.8 +1.21 89 31
42 Hawai'i 7.5 +1.17 89 31
43 North Dakota State 7.3 +1.13 88 32
44 Texas Tech 7.2 +1.12 88 34
45 Texas A&M 7.1 +1.11 88 34
46 UMBC 7.1 +1.11 88 31
47 Clemson 7.0 +1.10 87 35
48 Grand Canyon 7.0 +1.09 87 32
49 NC State 6.9 +1.08 87 34
50 Utah Valley 6.9 +1.07 87 31
51 Wisconsin 6.9 +1.07 86 35
52 Wichita State 6.8 +1.06 86 35
53 Ohio State 6.7 +1.05 86 34
54 East Tennessee State 6.7 +1.05 85 32
55 UNC Wilmington 6.5 +1.02 85 32
56 Kentucky 6.2 +0.97 85 36
57 Howard 6.2 +0.97 85 31
58 Hofstra 6.1 +0.96 84 33
59 SMU 6.1 +0.96 84 34
60 Kansas 6.1 +0.95 84 35
61 Northern Iowa 6.1 +0.95 84 35
62 UCLA 6.0 +0.95 83 36
63 Indiana 6.0 +0.94 83 32
64 Villanova 5.9 +0.93 83 33
65 George Washington 5.7 +0.90 82 34
66 Texas 5.6 +0.88 82 35
67 Cincinnati 5.5 +0.88 82 33
68 San Diego State 5.5 +0.87 82 32
69 Oklahoma 5.5 +0.86 81 37
70 TCU 5.3 +0.84 81 35
71 California Baptist 5.1 +0.80 81 34
72 Illinois State 5.1 +0.80 80 35
73 Seton Hall 5.0 +0.79 80 33
74 Marist 5.0 +0.79 80 30
75 George Mason 4.9 +0.78 80 32
76 West Virginia 4.9 +0.78 79 35
77 Dayton 4.8 +0.77 79 37
78 UC Irvine 4.8 +0.77 79 33
79 Siena 4.5 +0.73 79 35
80 Nevada 4.5 +0.72 78 37
81 Austin Peay 4.4 +0.71 78 29
82 California 4.3 +0.70 78 33
83 Auburn 4.2 +0.68 77 38
84 Boise State 4.2 +0.68 77 30
85 Wright State 4.2 +0.67 77 33
86 Bowling Green 4.0 +0.65 77 29
87 UC San Diego 4.0 +0.65 76 32
88 Virginia Tech 3.9 +0.63 76 32
89 UAB 3.8 +0.62 76 31
90 Winthrop 3.8 +0.61 76 31
91 Missouri 3.8 +0.61 75 33
92 Arkansas State 3.7 +0.61 75 30
93 Liberty 3.6 +0.59 75 31
94 Baylor 3.5 +0.57 74 33
95 Washington 3.5 +0.57 74 33
96 Robert Morris 3.4 +0.56 74 31
97 Vermont 3.4 +0.55 74 32
98 Central Arkansas 3.3 +0.54 73 32
99 Colorado State 3.3 +0.54 73 33
100 Wyoming 3.3 +0.53 73 32
101 UT Martin 3.1 +0.52 73 30
102 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.1 +0.52 72 31
103 Sam Houston 3.1 +0.51 72 31
104 Stanford 3.0 +0.50 72 33
105 UC Santa Barbara 3.0 +0.49 71 30
106 LSU 2.9 +0.49 71 32
107 Murray State 2.9 +0.48 71 33
108 Tennessee State 2.9 +0.48 71 30
109 Troy 2.8 +0.46 70 32
110 Northern Colorado 2.8 +0.46 70 29
111 Bradley 2.8 +0.46 70 33
112 Portland State 2.7 +0.45 70 28
113 UIC 2.7 +0.45 69 33
114 William & Mary 2.6 +0.44 69 30
115 Furman 2.5 +0.42 69 32
116 Harvard 2.5 +0.42 68 28
117 Florida State 2.4 +0.41 68 33
118 Mercer 2.3 +0.40 68 29
119 Toledo 2.3 +0.40 68 32
120 UCF 2.3 +0.39 67 33
121 Northern Kentucky 2.2 +0.38 67 31
122 Southern Illinois 2.2 +0.38 67 31
123 Montana State 2.1 +0.37 66 29
124 Merrimack 2.1 +0.36 66 34
125 Richmond 2.0 +0.34 66 31
126 South Alabama 1.9 +0.34 66 31
127 Long Island University 1.9 +0.33 65 35
128 App State 1.9 +0.33 65 30
129 Wake Forest 1.9 +0.33 65 35
130 Seattle U 1.9 +0.33 65 33
131 Butler 1.8 +0.32 64 32
132 Florida Atlantic 1.8 +0.32 64 31
133 Temple 1.8 +0.32 64 31
134 SIU Edwardsville 1.8 +0.32 63 29
135 Kennesaw State 1.8 +0.31 63 32
136 Rhode Island 1.7 +0.30 63 32
137 Idaho 1.6 +0.29 63 33
138 Kent State 1.6 +0.29 62 32
139 Marshall 1.6 +0.28 62 31
140 Quinnipiac 1.5 +0.28 62 31
141 Pacific 1.5 +0.27 62 31
142 Charleston 1.4 +0.26 61 31
143 Columbia 1.4 +0.26 61 26
144 Davidson 1.3 +0.25 61 32
145 Providence 1.3 +0.24 60 33
146 Saint Joseph's 1.3 +0.24 60 34
147 Fordham 1.2 +0.23 60 29
148 Northwestern 1.2 +0.22 60 34
149 Cornell 1.2 +0.22 59 26
150 Massachusetts 1.1 +0.21 59 32
151 Duquesne 1.0 +0.20 59 31
152 Monmouth 1.0 +0.20 59 33
153 Fairfield 1.0 +0.20 58 33
154 Southeast Missouri State 1.0 +0.19 58 30
155 North Texas 0.9 +0.19 58 31
156 Western Kentucky 0.9 +0.19 57 30
157 Minnesota 0.9 +0.18 57 33
158 Samford 0.8 +0.17 57 30
159 Syracuse 0.8 +0.16 57 32
160 St. Bonaventure 0.7 +0.16 56 33
161 Iona 0.7 +0.16 56 32
162 Georgetown 0.7 +0.15 56 34
163 DePaul 0.7 +0.15 55 32
164 Oklahoma State 0.7 +0.15 55 35
165 Queens University 0.6 +0.15 55 34
166 Towson 0.6 +0.14 55 32
167 Lipscomb 0.6 +0.14 54 30
168 Buffalo 0.5 +0.12 54 30
169 Colorado 0.4 +0.11 54 33
170 James Madison 0.3 +0.09 54 32
171 Youngstown State 0.2 +0.08 53 29
172 San Francisco 0.2 +0.07 53 32
173 Boston University 0.2 +0.07 53 33
174 Saint Peter's 0.1 +0.07 52 28
175 New Mexico State 0.1 +0.06 52 29
176 Louisiana Tech 0.1 +0.06 52 31
177 UC Davis 0.0 +0.05 52 31
178 Creighton -0.0 +0.04 51 34
179 UT Arlington -0.0 +0.04 51 30
180 Charleston Southern -0.0 +0.04 51 29
181 Pennsylvania -0.0 +0.04 51 29
182 South Dakota State -0.1 +0.03 50 29
183 Wofford -0.2 +0.02 50 30
184 Ole Miss -0.2 +0.01 50 35
185 Weber State -0.2 +0.01 49 30
186 Drexel -0.3 +0.01 49 32
187 Longwood -0.3 -0.00 49 29
188 Mercyhurst -0.4 -0.01 49 32
189 Loyola Marymount -0.4 -0.01 48 31
190 Georgia Southern -0.5 -0.02 48 35
191 Texas State -0.6 -0.04 48 30
192 USC -0.6 -0.04 48 31
193 Colgate -0.6 -0.04 47 31
194 Marquette -0.6 -0.04 47 32
195 Jacksonville State -0.7 -0.05 47 29
196 Lindenwood -0.7 -0.05 46 30
197 UNLV -0.7 -0.05 46 34
198 Cal State Northridge -0.7 -0.05 46 32
199 Valparaiso -0.7 -0.05 46 32
200 American University -0.7 -0.06 45 30
201 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -0.9 -0.08 45 29
202 Notre Dame -0.9 -0.08 45 31
203 Southern Miss -0.9 -0.08 45 33
204 Radford -0.9 -0.09 44 29
205 Middle Tennessee -1.1 -0.12 44 29
206 Fresno State -1.2 -0.12 44 31
207 Oakland -1.2 -0.13 43 31
208 Missouri State -1.3 -0.14 43 31
209 Charlotte -1.3 -0.14 43 33
210 Pittsburgh -1.3 -0.15 43 33
211 Florida International -1.3 -0.15 42 29
212 Florida Gulf Coast -1.4 -0.16 42 32
213 Central Connecticut -1.4 -0.16 42 28
214 Memphis -1.5 -0.17 41 32
215 Eastern Washington -1.5 -0.17 41 32
216 South Carolina -1.5 -0.18 41 32
217 Le Moyne -1.6 -0.19 41 31
218 Washington State -1.6 -0.19 40 31
219 Coastal Carolina -1.7 -0.21 40 31
220 Stony Brook -1.8 -0.21 40 30
221 Montana -1.9 -0.23 40 30
222 Cal State Fullerton -1.9 -0.23 39 32
223 Green Bay -2.0 -0.24 39 31
224 Arizona State -2.0 -0.25 39 33
225 Lamar -2.1 -0.26 38 29
226 Grambling -2.2 -0.28 38 31
227 Utah Tech -2.3 -0.29 38 31
228 Xavier -2.3 -0.29 38 33
229 UNC Asheville -2.3 -0.29 37 29
230 Kansas State -2.3 -0.29 37 32
231 Drake -2.4 -0.31 37 32
232 Detroit Mercy -2.4 -0.31 37 30
233 Elon -2.5 -0.32 36 30
234 Alabama A&M -2.5 -0.32 36 30
235 Lehigh -2.6 -0.34 36 33
236 Western Carolina -2.7 -0.35 35 29
237 Campbell -2.8 -0.36 35 32
238 Bethune-Cookman -2.9 -0.39 35 31
239 Old Dominion -3.0 -0.40 35 32
240 Oregon State -3.0 -0.40 34 33
241 Norfolk State -3.0 -0.40 34 28
242 Oregon -3.1 -0.41 34 32
243 Presbyterian -3.1 -0.41 34 30
244 Wagner -3.1 -0.41 33 28
245 Mount St. Mary's -3.1 -0.42 33 31
246 New Orleans -3.2 -0.42 33 33
247 Sacred Heart -3.2 -0.43 32 32
248 Boston College -3.3 -0.44 32 31
249 Tarleton State -3.3 -0.44 32 28
250 Ohio -3.3 -0.44 32 30
251 Indiana State -3.4 -0.46 31 30
252 Morehead State -3.6 -0.48 31 30
253 Tulane -3.6 -0.49 31 32
254 Georgia Tech -3.6 -0.49 30 31
255 Denver -3.7 -0.51 30 29
256 South Dakota -3.7 -0.51 30 29
257 Omaha -3.8 -0.51 30 29
258 Chattanooga -3.9 -0.54 29 29
259 Idaho State -3.9 -0.54 29 30
260 Cal Poly -4.0 -0.54 29 31
261 Southern -4.0 -0.55 29 31
262 Prairie View A&M -4.1 -0.56 28 33
263 Hampton -4.1 -0.56 28 30
264 Mississippi State -4.2 -0.58 28 32
265 Eastern Michigan -4.2 -0.58 27 30
266 Bellarmine -4.4 -0.60 27 30
267 Purdue Fort Wayne -4.6 -0.63 27 29
268 Incarnate Word -4.6 -0.63 27 28
269 North Carolina A&T -4.6 -0.64 26 28
270 South Carolina Upstate -4.7 -0.65 26 29
271 Nicholls -4.7 -0.65 26 32
272 Utah -4.8 -0.66 26 32
273 Rice -4.8 -0.66 25 29
274 Rutgers -4.8 -0.67 25 34
275 Loyola Maryland -4.8 -0.67 25 30
276 Princeton -5.0 -0.69 24 28
277 Florida A&M -5.1 -0.71 24 29
278 West Georgia -5.2 -0.72 24 30
279 Brown -5.2 -0.73 24 25
280 Milwaukee -5.3 -0.74 23 31
281 Little Rock -5.3 -0.74 23 30
282 UNC Greensboro -5.3 -0.74 23 32
283 Ball State -5.3 -0.74 23 29
284 Dartmouth -5.3 -0.74 22 25
285 Stonehill -5.3 -0.74 22 31
286 Tennessee Tech -5.4 -0.75 22 28
287 North Dakota -5.4 -0.76 21 32
288 Eastern Kentucky -5.6 -0.79 21 30
289 Penn State -5.7 -0.79 21 32
290 Jacksonville -5.7 -0.80 21 30
291 UMass Lowell -5.7 -0.80 20 30
292 Long Beach State -5.8 -0.81 20 30
293 UAlbany -5.8 -0.82 20 29
294 Abilene Christian -5.9 -0.84 20 30
295 New Haven -6.0 -0.84 19 28
296 Central Michigan -6.0 -0.85 19 29
297 Portland -6.0 -0.85 19 32
298 San Diego -6.0 -0.85 18 31
299 Alabama State -6.1 -0.86 18 31
300 Northeastern -6.1 -0.86 18 31
301 Texas Southern -6.1 -0.86 18 28
302 Houston Christian -6.1 -0.87 17 30
303 East Carolina -6.2 -0.87 17 30
304 Western Michigan -6.2 -0.87 17 29
305 Delaware -6.2 -0.88 16 30
306 UTEP -6.3 -0.88 16 28
307 Lafayette -6.3 -0.88 16 31
308 SE Louisiana -6.5 -0.92 16 30
309 Northwestern State -6.8 -0.97 15 30
310 Holy Cross -6.9 -0.98 15 31
311 Maryland -6.9 -0.98 15 33
312 Georgia State -7.0 -1.00 15 30
313 Louisiana -7.0 -1.00 14 33
314 Manhattan -7.2 -1.02 14 31
315 Southern Indiana -7.3 -1.03 14 28
316 Maine -7.3 -1.04 13 31
317 UC Riverside -7.5 -1.06 13 30
318 NJIT -7.5 -1.07 13 32
319 Fairleigh Dickinson -7.6 -1.08 13 29
320 Eastern Illinois -7.6 -1.09 12 30
321 Sacramento State -7.7 -1.10 12 28
322 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -7.9 -1.12 12 30
323 Oral Roberts -7.9 -1.13 12 30
324 Stetson -8.0 -1.14 11 31
325 La Salle -8.1 -1.16 11 31
326 Army -8.1 -1.16 11 30
327 IU Indianapolis -8.3 -1.19 10 30
328 Morgan State -8.3 -1.19 10 27
329 San José State -8.4 -1.20 10 32
330 Niagara -8.4 -1.21 10 29
331 Bucknell -8.9 -1.28 9 33
332 Southern Utah -9.0 -1.29 9 29
333 East Texas A&M -9.0 -1.29 9 30
334 Loyola Chicago -9.0 -1.29 9 33
335 Canisius -9.1 -1.31 8 30
336 Maryland Eastern Shore -9.1 -1.31 8 30
337 Pepperdine -9.3 -1.34 8 30
338 Northern Arizona -9.5 -1.37 7 29
339 North Carolina Central -9.6 -1.39 7 28
340 New Hampshire -9.7 -1.40 7 28
341 Binghamton -9.9 -1.43 7 28
342 Cleveland State -10.0 -1.45 6 30
343 North Alabama -10.1 -1.46 6 28
344 Bryant -10.3 -1.48 6 29
345 The Citadel -10.6 -1.53 5 30
346 Chicago State -11.4 -1.64 5 31
347 Cal State Bakersfield -11.4 -1.66 5 30
348 Delaware State -11.7 -1.70 5 27
349 North Florida -12.4 -1.81 4 30
350 Evansville -12.5 -1.82 4 30
351 Northern Illinois -12.5 -1.82 4 28
352 Saint Francis -13.0 -1.89 4 29
353 South Carolina State -13.2 -1.91 3 30
354 Alcorn State -13.3 -1.93 3 32
355 Jackson State -13.5 -1.97 3 33
356 UL Monroe -13.7 -1.99 2 30
357 Rider -14.1 -2.06 2 28
358 VMI -14.7 -2.14 2 29
359 Western Illinois -15.3 -2.23 2 28
360 UTSA -15.6 -2.28 1 28
361 Coppin State -16.7 -2.45 1 30
362 Kansas City -17.8 -2.60 1 28
363 Air Force -18.3 -2.69 1 32
364 Mississippi Valley State -20.5 -3.00 0 32
365 Gardner-Webb -20.5 -3.01 0 30