I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.69 (team entering with the better value wins 64% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 59.7 max 91.2 mean 74.5 std 5.7 (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Points Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Alabama 91.2 +2.93 100 35
2 Arkansas 90.2 +2.75 100 37
3 Georgia 89.4 +2.62 99 33
4 Michigan 87.3 +2.25 99 40
5 Florida 87.1 +2.22 99 35
6 South Florida 86.8 +2.15 99 33
7 Saint Louis 86.4 +2.09 98 34
8 Akron 86.4 +2.09 98 33
9 High Point 86.4 +2.09 98 33
10 Miami (OH) 86.3 +2.06 98 31
11 Arizona 86.2 +2.04 97 39
12 Texas A&M 86.1 +2.03 97 34
13 Cornell 85.8 +1.98 97 26
14 Vanderbilt 85.7 +1.97 96 36
15 Providence 85.3 +1.89 96 33
16 Queens University 84.4 +1.74 96 34
17 Gonzaga 84.3 +1.72 96 35
18 Louisville 84.3 +1.71 95 35
19 SMU 84.1 +1.68 95 34
20 Tulsa 83.9 +1.66 95 36
21 Oklahoma State 83.9 +1.64 95 35
22 BYU 83.5 +1.59 94 35
23 Belmont 83.5 +1.58 94 31
24 Illinois 83.2 +1.53 94 37
25 NC State 83.2 +1.52 93 34
26 Murray State 83.1 +1.51 93 33
27 Auburn 83.0 +1.49 93 38
28 Wisconsin 83.0 +1.49 93 35
29 Oklahoma 82.9 +1.47 92 37
30 Santa Clara 82.9 +1.47 92 34
31 Kent State 82.3 +1.36 92 32
32 Iowa State 82.0 +1.31 91 37
33 Arkansas State 81.8 +1.27 91 30
34 Texas 81.7 +1.26 91 35
35 Purdue 81.6 +1.25 91 39
36 Duke 81.6 +1.25 90 38
37 Oakland 81.6 +1.24 90 31
38 William & Mary 81.5 +1.23 90 30
39 Miami 81.5 +1.23 90 35
40 Winthrop 81.5 +1.22 89 31
41 LSU 81.4 +1.22 89 32
42 Utah State 81.4 +1.20 89 35
43 Cal Poly 81.4 +1.20 88 31
44 Charleston Southern 80.9 +1.13 88 29
45 St. John's 80.9 +1.13 88 37
46 George Washington 80.9 +1.12 88 34
47 Northern Kentucky 80.9 +1.12 87 31
48 St. Thomas-Minnesota 80.9 +1.12 87 31
49 IU Indianapolis 80.9 +1.12 87 30
50 VCU 80.8 +1.11 87 36
51 Northern Colorado 80.8 +1.11 86 29
52 New Mexico 80.8 +1.10 86 36
53 UCF 80.7 +1.08 86 33
54 Cal State Northridge 80.6 +1.07 85 32
55 Kentucky 80.5 +1.05 85 36
56 Marshall 80.5 +1.04 85 31
57 Virginia 80.4 +1.04 85 36
58 Baylor 80.4 +1.04 84 33
59 Florida State 80.4 +1.03 84 33
60 Cal State Fullerton 80.3 +1.02 84 32
61 Denver 80.3 +1.02 84 29
62 Texas Tech 80.3 +1.01 83 34
63 Colorado 80.2 +0.99 83 33
64 Yale 80.1 +0.99 83 29
65 Mercer 80.1 +0.98 82 29
66 Kennesaw State 80.0 +0.97 82 32
67 Sam Houston 80.0 +0.96 82 31
68 Massachusetts 79.9 +0.95 82 32
69 Georgia Southern 79.9 +0.94 81 35
70 Radford 79.9 +0.94 81 29
71 Toledo 79.8 +0.93 81 32
72 Wright State 79.8 +0.92 80 33
73 North Carolina 79.7 +0.92 80 33
74 Kansas State 79.6 +0.89 80 32
75 Butler 79.4 +0.85 80 32
76 Ohio State 79.3 +0.85 79 34
77 Central Arkansas 79.3 +0.84 79 32
78 Missouri 79.2 +0.83 79 33
79 Austin Peay 79.0 +0.79 79 29
80 Bellarmine 78.9 +0.78 78 30
81 Tennessee 78.8 +0.76 78 37
82 Weber State 78.8 +0.76 78 30
83 Wake Forest 78.8 +0.76 77 35
84 Michigan State 78.8 +0.75 77 35
85 Virginia Tech 78.8 +0.75 77 32
86 Hawai'i 78.7 +0.74 77 31
87 North Dakota State 78.7 +0.73 76 32
88 UNLV 78.6 +0.72 76 34
89 Cleveland State 78.6 +0.71 76 30
90 Wofford 78.4 +0.68 76 30
91 Xavier 78.4 +0.68 75 33
92 UAB 78.2 +0.64 75 31
93 Indiana 78.2 +0.64 75 32
94 South Dakota 78.0 +0.61 74 29
95 Tennessee State 77.9 +0.60 74 30
96 Western Kentucky 77.9 +0.60 74 30
97 USC 77.8 +0.59 74 31
98 Samford 77.8 +0.58 73 30
99 California 77.7 +0.57 73 33
100 Florida International 77.7 +0.57 73 29
101 Utah Valley 77.7 +0.56 73 31
102 Eastern Washington 77.7 +0.55 72 32
103 Mississippi State 77.6 +0.55 72 32
104 Lipscomb 77.6 +0.54 72 30
105 Wichita State 77.6 +0.54 71 35
106 Buffalo 77.5 +0.53 71 30
107 Eastern Kentucky 77.5 +0.52 71 30
108 Boise State 77.4 +0.51 71 30
109 TCU 77.4 +0.50 70 35
110 Troy 77.3 +0.49 70 32
111 Florida Atlantic 77.2 +0.47 70 31
112 North Florida 77.1 +0.46 70 30
113 Villanova 77.1 +0.46 69 33
114 Washington 77.1 +0.46 69 33
115 UCLA 77.1 +0.45 69 36
116 Nebraska 77.0 +0.43 68 35
117 Bradley 77.0 +0.43 68 33
118 Duquesne 76.9 +0.42 68 31
119 Houston 76.9 +0.41 68 37
120 San Diego State 76.8 +0.41 67 32
121 East Tennessee State 76.8 +0.41 67 32
122 Robert Morris 76.8 +0.40 67 31
123 Elon 76.8 +0.40 66 30
124 Bowling Green 76.8 +0.40 66 29
125 Saint Mary's 76.8 +0.39 66 32
126 Ohio 76.7 +0.39 66 30
127 UC Santa Barbara 76.7 +0.39 65 30
128 UNC Greensboro 76.6 +0.37 65 32
129 UConn 76.6 +0.37 65 40
130 Florida Gulf Coast 76.6 +0.37 65 32
131 McNeese 76.6 +0.36 64 32
132 Richmond 76.5 +0.35 64 31
133 Arizona State 76.3 +0.32 64 33
134 Western Carolina 76.3 +0.32 63 29
135 Detroit Mercy 76.3 +0.31 63 30
136 Southern 76.2 +0.30 63 31
137 Wyoming 76.2 +0.30 63 32
138 St. Bonaventure 76.2 +0.29 62 33
139 UC Davis 76.1 +0.27 62 31
140 Campbell 76.1 +0.27 62 32
141 Nevada 76.0 +0.27 62 37
142 Stanford 76.0 +0.26 61 33
143 Longwood 75.9 +0.24 61 29
144 Sacramento State 75.9 +0.24 61 28
145 Ole Miss 75.9 +0.24 60 35
146 Liberty 75.8 +0.23 60 31
147 Idaho 75.8 +0.22 60 33
148 Montana 75.7 +0.21 60 30
149 UMBC 75.7 +0.21 59 31
150 Old Dominion 75.7 +0.20 59 32
151 Montana State 75.7 +0.20 59 29
152 Washington State 75.6 +0.20 59 31
153 Grand Canyon 75.6 +0.20 58 32
154 Colgate 75.6 +0.19 58 31
155 Howard 75.5 +0.18 58 31
156 West Georgia 75.3 +0.15 57 30
157 Charleston 75.3 +0.14 57 31
158 Memphis 75.2 +0.13 57 32
159 Creighton 75.2 +0.12 57 34
160 Marquette 75.2 +0.11 56 32
161 Kansas 75.1 +0.11 56 35
162 Youngstown State 75.1 +0.11 56 29
163 Syracuse 75.0 +0.09 55 32
164 Furman 74.9 +0.08 55 32
165 South Carolina 74.9 +0.08 55 32
166 Stephen F. Austin 74.9 +0.08 55 32
167 Columbia 74.9 +0.07 54 26
168 Northeastern 74.9 +0.07 54 31
169 Colorado State 74.8 +0.06 54 33
170 Prairie View A&M 74.8 +0.06 54 33
171 Utah Tech 74.7 +0.04 53 31
172 James Madison 74.7 +0.03 53 32
173 Milwaukee 74.7 +0.03 53 31
174 UNC Wilmington 74.6 +0.02 52 32
175 Boston University 74.6 +0.02 52 33
176 Bethune-Cookman 74.5 +0.01 52 31
177 Iowa 74.5 +0.01 52 37
178 New Orleans 74.5 +0.00 51 33
179 UC San Diego 74.5 -0.01 51 32
180 Notre Dame 74.5 -0.01 51 31
181 Pennsylvania 74.4 -0.02 51 29
182 South Dakota State 74.4 -0.02 50 29
183 Lindenwood 74.4 -0.02 50 30
184 Hofstra 74.4 -0.02 50 33
185 Sacred Heart 74.3 -0.03 49 32
186 Utah 74.3 -0.03 49 32
187 North Dakota 74.2 -0.05 49 32
188 UC Irvine 74.2 -0.05 49 33
189 Purdue Fort Wayne 74.2 -0.05 48 29
190 Quinnipiac 74.2 -0.06 48 31
191 Illinois State 74.1 -0.06 48 35
192 Chattanooga 74.1 -0.06 48 29
193 Dayton 74.1 -0.06 47 37
194 Navy 74.1 -0.08 47 32
195 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 74.0 -0.09 47 30
196 Southern Miss 73.9 -0.10 46 33
197 UIC 73.9 -0.10 46 33
198 San Francisco 73.9 -0.10 46 32
199 Portland State 73.9 -0.10 46 28
200 Drake 73.9 -0.10 45 32
201 Green Bay 73.9 -0.11 45 31
202 Omaha 73.9 -0.11 45 29
203 Western Michigan 73.9 -0.11 45 29
204 Texas Southern 73.9 -0.11 44 28
205 New Mexico State 73.9 -0.11 44 29
206 North Carolina A&T 73.9 -0.11 44 28
207 Iona 73.8 -0.12 43 32
208 Georgia Tech 73.8 -0.13 43 31
209 Clemson 73.8 -0.13 43 35
210 UT Rio Grande Valley 73.7 -0.13 43 31
211 Penn State 73.7 -0.14 42 32
212 Loyola Maryland 73.7 -0.15 42 30
213 Idaho State 73.6 -0.15 42 30
214 Long Island University 73.6 -0.15 41 35
215 Georgetown 73.6 -0.16 41 34
216 Middle Tennessee 73.5 -0.18 41 29
217 Southeast Missouri State 73.2 -0.22 41 30
218 South Alabama 73.2 -0.22 40 31
219 Long Beach State 73.2 -0.23 40 30
220 Northwestern 73.1 -0.24 40 34
221 Cincinnati 73.1 -0.24 40 33
222 Dartmouth 73.1 -0.25 39 25
223 Missouri State 73.1 -0.25 39 31
224 Charlotte 73.0 -0.26 39 33
225 Temple 73.0 -0.26 38 31
226 Fairfield 72.9 -0.27 38 33
227 George Mason 72.9 -0.29 38 32
228 San Diego 72.8 -0.30 38 31
229 Southern Illinois 72.7 -0.32 37 31
230 California Baptist 72.6 -0.33 37 34
231 Tarleton State 72.5 -0.36 37 28
232 Manhattan 72.4 -0.37 37 31
233 Fresno State 72.4 -0.38 36 31
234 Le Moyne 72.3 -0.38 36 31
235 Southern Utah 72.3 -0.38 36 29
236 Loyola Marymount 72.2 -0.40 35 31
237 Vermont 72.1 -0.42 35 32
238 Portland 72.1 -0.43 35 32
239 Tulane 72.0 -0.43 35 32
240 Rice 72.0 -0.44 34 29
241 Monmouth 72.0 -0.44 34 33
242 American University 72.0 -0.44 34 30
243 Cal State Bakersfield 72.0 -0.44 34 30
244 Morehead State 72.0 -0.44 33 30
245 Saint Joseph's 71.9 -0.45 33 34
246 Stetson 71.9 -0.45 33 31
247 Texas State 71.9 -0.45 32 30
248 UNC Asheville 71.9 -0.46 32 29
249 Lehigh 71.8 -0.47 32 33
250 Oral Roberts 71.8 -0.47 32 30
251 Coastal Carolina 71.8 -0.48 31 31
252 Morgan State 71.7 -0.48 31 27
253 UMass Lowell 71.7 -0.49 31 30
254 Indiana State 71.7 -0.49 30 30
255 UL Monroe 71.7 -0.49 30 30
256 Central Michigan 71.7 -0.50 30 29
257 Norfolk State 71.6 -0.50 30 28
258 UC Riverside 71.6 -0.50 29 30
259 East Carolina 71.5 -0.52 29 30
260 Alabama State 71.5 -0.52 29 31
261 Alabama A&M 71.4 -0.55 29 30
262 Pacific 71.4 -0.55 28 31
263 Valparaiso 71.2 -0.58 28 32
264 Oregon State 71.1 -0.59 28 33
265 South Carolina Upstate 71.0 -0.61 27 29
266 Nicholls 71.0 -0.62 27 32
267 Oregon 70.8 -0.64 27 32
268 Army 70.8 -0.64 27 30
269 San José State 70.8 -0.65 26 32
270 Stony Brook 70.7 -0.66 26 30
271 West Virginia 70.6 -0.68 26 35
272 Central Connecticut 70.6 -0.69 26 28
273 Rutgers 70.5 -0.70 25 34
274 Pittsburgh 70.5 -0.70 25 33
275 Incarnate Word 70.4 -0.71 25 28
276 Siena 70.4 -0.72 24 35
277 Pepperdine 70.4 -0.73 24 30
278 Seton Hall 70.3 -0.73 24 33
279 DePaul 70.3 -0.75 24 32
280 Tennessee Tech 70.3 -0.75 23 28
281 Jackson State 70.2 -0.75 23 33
282 Eastern Michigan 70.2 -0.76 23 30
283 Seattle U 70.1 -0.77 23 33
284 Saint Francis 70.0 -0.78 22 29
285 Florida A&M 70.0 -0.79 22 29
286 Presbyterian 70.0 -0.80 22 30
287 Jacksonville State 69.9 -0.80 21 29
288 Davidson 69.9 -0.81 21 32
289 Rhode Island 69.9 -0.81 21 32
290 Harvard 69.8 -0.83 21 28
291 Maryland 69.7 -0.84 20 33
292 Wagner 69.6 -0.86 20 28
293 Jacksonville 69.5 -0.88 20 30
294 Minnesota 69.4 -0.90 20 33
295 App State 69.3 -0.91 19 30
296 Saint Peter's 69.2 -0.93 19 28
297 North Texas 69.2 -0.94 19 31
298 Lafayette 69.1 -0.94 18 31
299 Grambling 69.0 -0.96 18 31
300 Little Rock 68.9 -0.98 18 30
301 Marist 68.9 -0.98 18 30
302 UAlbany 68.7 -1.02 17 29
303 Northern Iowa 68.6 -1.04 17 35
304 Merrimack 68.5 -1.05 17 34
305 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 68.5 -1.05 16 29
306 VMI 68.5 -1.06 16 29
307 Georgia State 68.4 -1.06 16 30
308 Lamar 68.4 -1.07 16 29
309 The Citadel 68.3 -1.09 15 30
310 Mercyhurst 68.3 -1.10 15 32
311 Northern Arizona 68.1 -1.12 15 29
312 Hampton 68.0 -1.14 15 30
313 Abilene Christian 67.9 -1.15 14 30
314 Holy Cross 67.9 -1.16 14 31
315 Mount St. Mary's 67.9 -1.16 14 31
316 Delaware 67.9 -1.16 13 30
317 North Alabama 67.9 -1.17 13 28
318 Louisiana Tech 67.8 -1.17 13 31
319 UT Martin 67.8 -1.17 13 30
320 UT Arlington 67.7 -1.19 12 30
321 SIU Edwardsville 67.7 -1.19 12 29
322 North Carolina Central 67.6 -1.20 12 28
323 Fordham 67.6 -1.22 12 29
324 Princeton 67.5 -1.23 11 28
325 South Carolina State 67.4 -1.24 11 30
326 Boston College 67.4 -1.24 11 31
327 Bucknell 67.4 -1.25 10 33
328 Drexel 67.3 -1.26 10 32
329 UTSA 67.3 -1.27 10 28
330 Brown 67.2 -1.28 10 25
331 East Texas A&M 67.1 -1.30 9 30
332 Towson 67.1 -1.30 9 32
333 Southern Indiana 67.0 -1.31 9 28
334 Kansas City 67.0 -1.32 9 28
335 Alcorn State 66.9 -1.33 8 32
336 La Salle 66.9 -1.34 8 31
337 Loyola Chicago 66.8 -1.35 8 33
338 Binghamton 66.8 -1.35 7 28
339 New Hampshire 66.6 -1.38 7 28
340 UTEP 66.4 -1.42 7 28
341 Northern Illinois 66.3 -1.43 7 28
342 Houston Christian 66.3 -1.44 6 30
343 Gardner-Webb 66.2 -1.46 6 30
344 NJIT 66.2 -1.46 6 32
345 Ball State 66.1 -1.48 5 29
346 Northwestern State 66.1 -1.48 5 30
347 Evansville 65.8 -1.52 5 30
348 Chicago State 65.2 -1.64 5 31
349 Fairleigh Dickinson 65.1 -1.65 4 29
350 SE Louisiana 64.8 -1.70 4 30
351 Eastern Illinois 64.6 -1.74 4 30
352 Coppin State 64.3 -1.79 4 30
353 Stonehill 64.2 -1.81 3 31
354 Louisiana 63.7 -1.90 3 33
355 Niagara 63.3 -1.97 3 29
356 Mississippi Valley State 63.2 -1.98 2 32
357 Western Illinois 63.2 -1.98 2 28
358 Bryant 63.0 -2.01 2 29
359 Rider 62.6 -2.08 2 28
360 Maryland Eastern Shore 62.4 -2.12 1 30
361 Canisius 62.2 -2.15 1 30
362 Air Force 61.5 -2.27 1 32
363 New Haven 61.5 -2.29 1 28
364 Maine 61.2 -2.33 0 31
365 Delaware State 59.7 -2.60 0 27