But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed

Does it predict winners?

Weak standalone predictor of the winner.

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 35.9% max 64.7% mean 49.8% std 5.1% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponents' Win Percentage (OWP) z Pctl GP
1 Michigan 64.7% +2.92 100 40
2 Alabama 64.0% +2.78 100 35
3 Arkansas 63.8% +2.73 99 37
4 Auburn 63.0% +2.57 99 38
5 Texas Tech 62.7% +2.51 99 34
6 Arizona 62.0% +2.38 99 39
7 Kansas 61.9% +2.36 98 35
8 UConn 61.8% +2.34 98 40
9 Duke 61.4% +2.25 98 38
10 Illinois 61.3% +2.25 98 37
11 Michigan State 60.3% +2.05 97 35
12 Tennessee 60.0% +2.00 97 37
13 Purdue 59.9% +1.98 97 39
14 St. John's 59.8% +1.95 96 37
15 Kentucky 59.7% +1.93 96 36
16 Florida 59.5% +1.90 96 35
17 North Carolina 59.5% +1.89 96 33
18 BYU 59.4% +1.86 95 35
19 Vanderbilt 59.2% +1.83 95 36
20 Wake Forest 59.0% +1.79 95 35
21 SMU 58.7% +1.73 95 34
22 NC State 58.0% +1.60 94 34
23 La Salle 57.9% +1.58 94 31
24 Oregon 57.8% +1.56 94 32
25 Arizona State 57.7% +1.54 93 33
26 UCF 57.6% +1.51 93 33
27 Notre Dame 57.2% +1.44 93 31
28 Houston 57.1% +1.41 93 37
29 Texas 57.0% +1.41 92 35
30 UCLA 56.9% +1.39 92 36
31 Boise State 56.9% +1.38 92 30
32 Utah State 56.9% +1.37 91 35
33 Louisville 56.8% +1.36 91 35
34 Virginia Tech 56.7% +1.35 91 32
35 Villanova 56.7% +1.34 91 33
36 Northwestern 56.5% +1.30 90 34
37 Stanford 56.5% +1.30 90 33
38 Yale 56.5% +1.29 90 29
39 Air Force 56.4% +1.29 90 32
40 Colorado 56.3% +1.27 89 33
41 Syracuse 56.3% +1.26 89 32
42 Saint Mary's 56.1% +1.23 89 32
43 Oklahoma State 56.0% +1.21 88 35
44 Ohio State 56.0% +1.21 88 34
45 Maryland 56.0% +1.20 88 33
46 Cincinnati 55.8% +1.17 88 33
47 Dayton 55.8% +1.17 87 37
48 Wisconsin 55.8% +1.16 87 35
49 Middle Tennessee 55.7% +1.16 87 29
50 South Florida 55.7% +1.15 87 33
51 Baylor 55.7% +1.15 86 33
52 Georgia 55.7% +1.14 86 33
53 George Washington 55.6% +1.13 86 34
54 Pittsburgh 55.6% +1.13 85 33
55 Utah 55.4% +1.09 85 32
56 Kansas State 55.3% +1.06 85 32
57 TCU 55.3% +1.06 85 35
58 Nevada 55.2% +1.05 84 37
59 UNLV 55.2% +1.04 84 34
60 VCU 55.2% +1.04 84 36
61 Iowa State 55.1% +1.03 84 37
62 Florida State 55.1% +1.02 83 33
63 Nebraska 55.1% +1.02 83 35
64 Iowa 55.0% +1.01 83 37
65 San Diego State 54.9% +0.99 82 32
66 Creighton 54.8% +0.97 82 34
67 Penn State 54.8% +0.97 82 32
68 Georgetown 54.7% +0.95 82 34
69 Xavier 54.7% +0.95 81 33
70 USC 54.7% +0.95 81 31
71 Toledo 54.7% +0.95 81 32
72 Indiana 54.7% +0.94 80 32
73 Missouri 54.5% +0.91 80 33
74 Northern Iowa 54.4% +0.90 80 35
75 Ole Miss 54.4% +0.89 80 35
76 Clemson 54.3% +0.88 79 35
77 New Mexico 54.2% +0.85 79 36
78 Mississippi State 54.1% +0.83 79 32
79 Virginia 54.1% +0.82 79 36
80 Evansville 54.0% +0.82 78 30
81 Texas A&M 53.9% +0.79 78 34
82 UNC Asheville 53.9% +0.79 78 29
83 Santa Clara 53.9% +0.78 77 34
84 Saint Louis 53.8% +0.78 77 34
85 Marshall 53.8% +0.78 77 31
86 Marquette 53.8% +0.77 77 32
87 UTEP 53.8% +0.77 76 28
88 Oakland 53.8% +0.77 76 31
89 Rutgers 53.6% +0.73 76 34
90 Washington State 53.4% +0.69 76 31
91 Towson 53.3% +0.68 75 32
92 Davidson 53.3% +0.67 75 32
93 St. Bonaventure 53.2% +0.67 75 33
94 Boston College 53.2% +0.67 74 31
95 Washington 53.2% +0.66 74 33
96 Seton Hall 53.2% +0.65 74 33
97 LSU 53.0% +0.61 74 32
98 California 52.8% +0.58 73 33
99 West Virginia 52.8% +0.58 73 35
100 Florida Atlantic 52.7% +0.57 73 31
101 Memphis 52.7% +0.57 73 32
102 Minnesota 52.6% +0.54 72 33
103 Liberty 52.6% +0.53 72 31
104 Winthrop 52.5% +0.52 72 31
105 Kent State 52.4% +0.50 71 32
106 Georgia Tech 52.4% +0.50 71 31
107 Tulane 52.4% +0.49 71 32
108 UTSA 52.3% +0.49 71 28
109 Pennsylvania 52.3% +0.48 70 29
110 George Mason 52.3% +0.47 70 32
111 South Carolina 52.3% +0.47 70 32
112 Wyoming 52.3% +0.47 70 32
113 Troy 52.2% +0.46 69 32
114 Portland 52.2% +0.46 69 32
115 UC Riverside 52.2% +0.46 69 30
116 Fresno State 52.2% +0.45 68 31
117 Oregon State 52.1% +0.44 68 33
118 Providence 52.0% +0.43 68 33
119 Ohio 52.0% +0.41 68 30
120 San José State 51.9% +0.41 67 32
121 Princeton 51.9% +0.40 67 28
122 Duquesne 51.8% +0.37 67 31
123 North Florida 51.7% +0.37 66 30
124 James Madison 51.7% +0.37 66 32
125 UC Irvine 51.7% +0.37 66 33
126 Furman 51.7% +0.36 66 32
127 Gonzaga 51.6% +0.34 65 35
128 Wright State 51.5% +0.32 65 33
129 East Carolina 51.5% +0.32 65 30
130 UIC 51.5% +0.32 65 33
131 Western Kentucky 51.4% +0.31 64 30
132 Illinois State 51.4% +0.30 64 35
133 Rhode Island 51.3% +0.29 64 32
134 Miami 51.3% +0.29 63 35
135 Oklahoma 51.3% +0.29 63 37
136 Saint Joseph's 51.3% +0.28 63 34
137 North Texas 51.2% +0.26 63 31
138 McNeese 51.2% +0.26 62 32
139 Wichita State 51.2% +0.26 62 35
140 Colorado State 51.1% +0.25 62 33
141 Florida International 51.1% +0.25 62 29
142 Campbell 51.1% +0.25 61 32
143 Western Carolina 51.1% +0.24 61 29
144 Southern Illinois 51.1% +0.24 61 31
145 Gardner-Webb 51.0% +0.23 60 30
146 Hofstra 51.0% +0.23 60 33
147 New Mexico State 51.0% +0.22 60 29
148 Murray State 50.9% +0.21 60 33
149 Eastern Kentucky 50.9% +0.20 59 30
150 Charleston 50.8% +0.19 59 31
151 Missouri State 50.7% +0.17 59 31
152 Arkansas State 50.7% +0.16 59 30
153 Green Bay 50.6% +0.16 58 31
154 Charlotte 50.6% +0.15 58 33
155 Butler 50.6% +0.15 58 32
156 Loyola Marymount 50.5% +0.13 57 31
157 Abilene Christian 50.5% +0.13 57 30
158 Utah Valley 50.5% +0.13 57 31
159 Akron 50.4% +0.12 57 33
160 Old Dominion 50.4% +0.11 56 32
161 Pepperdine 50.3% +0.10 56 30
162 Tulsa 50.3% +0.09 56 36
163 Sacramento State 50.3% +0.09 55 28
164 Utah Tech 50.2% +0.07 55 31
165 Drake 50.1% +0.05 55 32
166 Oral Roberts 50.0% +0.03 55 30
167 San Francisco 50.0% +0.03 54 32
168 Lipscomb 50.0% +0.03 54 30
169 UNC Wilmington 49.8% -0.01 54 32
170 Cornell 49.7% -0.02 54 26
171 Quinnipiac 49.7% -0.03 53 31
172 Central Michigan 49.7% -0.03 53 29
173 Massachusetts 49.7% -0.03 53 32
174 Western Michigan 49.7% -0.03 52 29
175 Cal State Fullerton 49.7% -0.03 52 32
176 Bradley 49.7% -0.03 52 33
177 UT Arlington 49.6% -0.05 52 30
178 Elon 49.6% -0.05 51 30
179 Rider 49.5% -0.06 51 28
180 Fordham 49.5% -0.06 51 29
181 Northeastern 49.4% -0.08 51 31
182 Loyola Chicago 49.4% -0.08 50 33
183 Southern Utah 49.4% -0.08 50 29
184 Milwaukee 49.2% -0.12 50 31
185 Cal Poly 49.2% -0.12 49 31
186 Sam Houston 49.2% -0.13 49 31
187 Indiana State 49.1% -0.15 49 30
188 Saint Francis 49.1% -0.15 49 29
189 Montana 49.0% -0.16 48 30
190 Grand Canyon 49.0% -0.16 48 32
191 East Texas A&M 49.0% -0.16 48 30
192 Jacksonville State 49.0% -0.17 48 29
193 Seattle U 48.9% -0.18 47 33
194 South Carolina Upstate 48.9% -0.18 47 29
195 Tennessee State 48.9% -0.19 47 30
196 Kennesaw State 48.8% -0.21 46 32
197 Rice 48.8% -0.21 46 29
198 Columbia 48.7% -0.22 46 26
199 Louisiana 48.7% -0.22 46 33
200 Niagara 48.6% -0.25 45 29
201 Colgate 48.6% -0.25 45 31
202 Queens University 48.5% -0.25 45 34
203 William & Mary 48.5% -0.27 45 30
204 Cal State Northridge 48.5% -0.27 44 32
205 Dartmouth 48.4% -0.28 44 25
206 Northern Illinois 48.4% -0.29 44 28
207 Eastern Michigan 48.3% -0.30 43 30
208 Richmond 48.3% -0.31 43 31
209 Eastern Illinois 48.2% -0.31 43 30
210 Pacific 48.2% -0.32 43 31
211 Denver 48.2% -0.32 42 29
212 Samford 48.1% -0.33 42 30
213 North Dakota 48.1% -0.33 42 32
214 Temple 48.0% -0.36 41 31
215 Belmont 48.0% -0.36 41 31
216 Southern Miss 47.9% -0.37 41 33
217 UC San Diego 47.9% -0.37 41 32
218 Drexel 47.9% -0.39 40 32
219 Idaho State 47.8% -0.39 40 30
220 DePaul 47.8% -0.39 40 32
221 San Diego 47.8% -0.41 40 31
222 Jackson State 47.7% -0.41 39 33
223 Jacksonville 47.7% -0.41 39 30
224 UT Rio Grande Valley 47.7% -0.41 39 31
225 Monmouth 47.7% -0.41 38 33
226 Bethune-Cookman 47.7% -0.42 38 31
227 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 47.7% -0.42 38 30
228 South Dakota State 47.7% -0.42 38 29
229 Central Arkansas 47.6% -0.43 37 32
230 Stony Brook 47.6% -0.43 37 30
231 Cleveland State 47.6% -0.43 37 30
232 East Tennessee State 47.6% -0.44 37 32
233 UC Santa Barbara 47.6% -0.44 36 30
234 Mercer 47.5% -0.45 36 29
235 UAB 47.5% -0.46 36 31
236 Bucknell 47.5% -0.46 35 33
237 Buffalo 47.4% -0.47 35 30
238 Iona 47.4% -0.48 35 32
239 Sacred Heart 47.4% -0.49 35 32
240 Southeast Missouri State 47.3% -0.49 34 30
241 Nicholls 47.3% -0.50 34 32
242 Long Beach State 47.3% -0.50 34 30
243 Tarleton State 47.3% -0.51 34 28
244 Montana State 47.2% -0.51 33 29
245 American University 47.2% -0.52 33 30
246 Merrimack 47.1% -0.53 33 34
247 Northwestern State 47.1% -0.54 32 30
248 Bowling Green 47.1% -0.54 32 29
249 UC Davis 47.0% -0.55 32 31
250 Northern Kentucky 47.0% -0.56 32 31
251 New Hampshire 46.9% -0.57 31 28
252 New Orleans 46.9% -0.58 31 33
253 Kansas City 46.8% -0.58 31 28
254 Bryant 46.8% -0.59 30 29
255 Chattanooga 46.8% -0.60 30 29
256 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 46.8% -0.60 30 29
257 Eastern Washington 46.8% -0.60 30 32
258 Texas Southern 46.7% -0.61 29 28
259 Coastal Carolina 46.7% -0.62 29 31
260 Lehigh 46.7% -0.62 29 33
261 Incarnate Word 46.6% -0.63 29 28
262 Army 46.6% -0.63 28 30
263 UNC Greensboro 46.6% -0.64 28 32
264 North Carolina A&T 46.6% -0.64 28 28
265 Saint Peter's 46.5% -0.64 27 28
266 Manhattan 46.5% -0.65 27 31
267 Canisius 46.4% -0.66 27 30
268 Tennessee Tech 46.3% -0.70 27 28
269 Weber State 46.3% -0.70 26 30
270 UMass Lowell 46.2% -0.71 26 30
271 Little Rock 46.2% -0.71 26 30
272 Chicago State 46.2% -0.72 26 31
273 Florida Gulf Coast 46.1% -0.72 25 32
274 UL Monroe 46.1% -0.73 25 30
275 Presbyterian 46.1% -0.74 25 30
276 Howard 46.0% -0.74 24 31
277 Louisiana Tech 45.9% -0.77 24 31
278 Stetson 45.9% -0.77 24 31
279 High Point 45.9% -0.77 24 33
280 South Alabama 45.9% -0.78 23 31
281 Delaware 45.9% -0.78 23 30
282 Fairfield 45.8% -0.79 23 33
283 Georgia State 45.8% -0.79 23 30
284 App State 45.8% -0.79 22 30
285 Northern Arizona 45.8% -0.80 22 29
286 Miami (OH) 45.7% -0.80 22 31
287 West Georgia 45.7% -0.81 21 30
288 Detroit Mercy 45.7% -0.81 21 30
289 Siena 45.6% -0.82 21 35
290 Lafayette 45.6% -0.82 21 31
291 NJIT 45.6% -0.84 20 32
292 Coppin State 45.5% -0.84 20 30
293 Hampton 45.5% -0.84 20 30
294 St. Thomas-Minnesota 45.5% -0.85 20 31
295 Maine 45.5% -0.86 19 31
296 Idaho 45.4% -0.87 19 33
297 Valparaiso 45.3% -0.88 19 32
298 UAlbany 45.3% -0.88 18 29
299 Mount St. Mary's 45.3% -0.88 18 31
300 North Carolina Central 45.3% -0.89 18 28
301 Western Illinois 45.2% -0.90 18 28
302 IU Indianapolis 45.1% -0.93 17 30
303 Cal State Bakersfield 45.0% -0.94 17 30
304 Prairie View A&M 45.0% -0.94 17 33
305 Texas State 44.9% -0.96 16 30
306 Purdue Fort Wayne 44.9% -0.97 16 29
307 Portland State 44.9% -0.97 16 28
308 North Dakota State 44.8% -0.99 16 32
309 Houston Christian 44.6% -1.02 15 30
310 UT Martin 44.5% -1.04 15 30
311 Harvard 44.5% -1.04 15 28
312 Austin Peay 44.4% -1.06 15 29
313 Youngstown State 44.4% -1.06 14 29
314 Morehead State 44.4% -1.07 14 30
315 Omaha 44.3% -1.07 14 29
316 Brown 44.3% -1.08 13 25
317 Marist 44.3% -1.09 13 30
318 New Haven 44.3% -1.09 13 28
319 South Carolina State 44.2% -1.10 13 30
320 SE Louisiana 44.2% -1.11 12 30
321 Bellarmine 44.2% -1.11 12 30
322 Hawai'i 44.0% -1.14 12 31
323 Lamar 44.0% -1.15 12 29
324 California Baptist 43.9% -1.16 11 34
325 Alcorn State 43.9% -1.17 11 32
326 North Alabama 43.8% -1.17 11 28
327 Lindenwood 43.8% -1.19 10 30
328 Robert Morris 43.7% -1.21 10 31
329 Vermont 43.6% -1.21 10 32
330 Southern 43.6% -1.21 10 31
331 Long Island University 43.6% -1.21 9 35
332 The Citadel 43.6% -1.21 9 30
333 Wagner 43.6% -1.22 9 28
334 VMI 43.5% -1.25 9 29
335 Northern Colorado 43.5% -1.25 8 29
336 Grambling 43.2% -1.30 8 31
337 Florida A&M 43.1% -1.31 8 29
338 Delaware State 43.0% -1.33 7 27
339 Stephen F. Austin 43.0% -1.34 7 32
340 Ball State 42.9% -1.35 7 29
341 Loyola Maryland 42.8% -1.38 7 30
342 Radford 42.7% -1.39 6 29
343 Fairleigh Dickinson 42.7% -1.40 6 29
344 Alabama A&M 42.3% -1.46 6 30
345 Holy Cross 42.2% -1.49 5 31
346 Wofford 42.1% -1.50 5 30
347 Norfolk State 42.1% -1.52 5 28
348 Mercyhurst 42.0% -1.52 5 32
349 Alabama State 42.0% -1.53 4 31
350 Georgia Southern 42.0% -1.53 4 35
351 Mississippi Valley State 41.8% -1.58 4 32
352 Charleston Southern 41.7% -1.59 4 29
353 Maryland Eastern Shore 41.7% -1.59 3 30
354 Stonehill 41.6% -1.61 3 31
355 South Dakota 41.2% -1.68 3 29
356 Boston University 40.8% -1.77 2 33
357 Longwood 40.7% -1.79 2 29
358 UMBC 40.6% -1.80 2 31
359 Navy 40.5% -1.83 2 32
360 Morgan State 40.4% -1.84 1 27
361 Le Moyne 40.2% -1.89 1 31
362 Central Connecticut 40.2% -1.89 1 28
363 Southern Indiana 40.1% -1.90 1 28
364 Binghamton 38.1% -2.29 0 28
365 SIU Edwardsville 35.9% -2.72 0 29