What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.63 (team entering with the better value wins 60% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 19.3% max 44.7% mean 30.4% std 3.9% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Offensive Rebound Percentage z Pctl GP
1 Tennessee 44.7% +3.63 100 37
2 Florida 43.3% +3.29 100 35
3 Illinois 39.2% +2.23 99 37
4 Duke 38.4% +2.04 99 38
5 Arizona 38.4% +2.03 99 39
6 Arkansas State 38.2% +1.99 99 30
7 South Florida 38.1% +1.97 98 33
8 Wichita State 38.0% +1.94 98 35
9 Virginia 37.9% +1.90 98 36
10 Michigan State 37.8% +1.89 98 35
11 Robert Morris 37.5% +1.81 97 31
12 Saint Mary's 37.5% +1.81 97 32
13 California Baptist 37.5% +1.80 97 34
14 Miami 37.2% +1.73 96 35
15 Auburn 37.0% +1.69 96 38
16 Saint Peter's 37.0% +1.67 96 28
17 UT Martin 37.0% +1.67 96 30
18 Baylor 36.9% +1.65 95 33
19 Purdue 36.4% +1.53 95 39
20 Santa Clara 36.4% +1.53 95 34
21 Louisiana Tech 36.4% +1.52 95 31
22 UIC 36.3% +1.49 94 33
23 Columbia 36.1% +1.44 94 26
24 Towson 36.0% +1.42 94 32
25 Sam Houston 35.9% +1.41 93 31
26 George Washington 35.8% +1.38 93 34
27 Morehead State 35.8% +1.37 93 30
28 Howard 35.8% +1.37 93 31
29 Fairfield 35.8% +1.36 92 33
30 UConn 35.7% +1.35 92 40
31 Lamar 35.7% +1.35 92 29
32 Houston 35.7% +1.34 91 37
33 Seton Hall 35.6% +1.33 91 33
34 New Orleans 35.6% +1.33 91 33
35 Texas 35.4% +1.28 91 35
36 Western Carolina 35.4% +1.27 90 29
37 SMU 35.4% +1.26 90 34
38 Rice 35.3% +1.26 90 29
39 Kent State 35.3% +1.25 90 32
40 UNC Wilmington 35.3% +1.24 89 32
41 Memphis 35.3% +1.24 89 32
42 Pacific 35.3% +1.24 89 31
43 St. John's 35.2% +1.23 88 37
44 Kennesaw State 35.2% +1.22 88 32
45 Iowa State 35.2% +1.21 88 37
46 McNeese 35.1% +1.19 88 32
47 UCF 35.0% +1.18 87 33
48 Missouri 34.9% +1.15 87 33
49 Georgia 34.9% +1.15 87 33
50 UT Arlington 34.9% +1.13 87 30
51 Utah Valley 34.8% +1.12 86 31
52 Gonzaga 34.8% +1.12 86 35
53 Tennessee State 34.8% +1.12 86 30
54 Hofstra 34.7% +1.10 85 33
55 Michigan 34.7% +1.09 85 40
56 Washington 34.6% +1.06 85 33
57 Longwood 34.6% +1.06 85 29
58 Butler 34.6% +1.06 84 32
59 Troy 34.6% +1.06 84 32
60 St. Bonaventure 34.5% +1.04 84 33
61 BYU 34.3% +1.00 84 35
62 Yale 34.2% +0.96 83 29
63 Winthrop 34.1% +0.95 83 31
64 Fordham 34.1% +0.94 83 29
65 Quinnipiac 34.1% +0.94 82 31
66 Wyoming 34.1% +0.93 82 32
67 TCU 34.0% +0.91 82 35
68 Texas State 33.9% +0.90 82 30
69 Florida International 33.9% +0.90 81 29
70 Long Island University 33.9% +0.89 81 35
71 Charlotte 33.9% +0.89 81 33
72 Pittsburgh 33.9% +0.89 80 33
73 Maryland 33.8% +0.87 80 33
74 Stephen F. Austin 33.8% +0.86 80 32
75 La Salle 33.7% +0.84 80 31
76 North Texas 33.5% +0.78 79 31
77 Campbell 33.5% +0.78 79 32
78 Akron 33.4% +0.77 79 33
79 East Carolina 33.4% +0.76 79 30
80 Massachusetts 33.3% +0.74 78 32
81 Detroit Mercy 33.3% +0.73 78 30
82 Texas Tech 33.2% +0.72 78 34
83 Lindenwood 33.2% +0.72 77 30
84 Kentucky 33.2% +0.72 77 36
85 Boise State 33.2% +0.71 77 30
86 Presbyterian 33.1% +0.69 77 30
87 LSU 33.1% +0.68 76 32
88 Milwaukee 33.0% +0.67 76 31
89 North Dakota State 32.9% +0.64 76 32
90 Hampton 32.9% +0.63 76 30
91 Wright State 32.8% +0.61 75 33
92 Oklahoma 32.8% +0.61 75 37
93 Louisville 32.8% +0.61 75 35
94 Idaho State 32.8% +0.61 74 30
95 Tulsa 32.8% +0.60 74 36
96 Wagner 32.8% +0.60 74 28
97 Utah State 32.7% +0.59 74 35
98 UMass Lowell 32.7% +0.59 73 30
99 UAlbany 32.7% +0.58 73 29
100 Murray State 32.6% +0.57 73 33
101 Rider 32.6% +0.57 73 28
102 Mercer 32.6% +0.56 72 29
103 Southern Miss 32.5% +0.55 72 33
104 UAB 32.5% +0.54 72 31
105 New Mexico State 32.5% +0.54 71 29
106 Eastern Kentucky 32.5% +0.54 71 30
107 Georgetown 32.5% +0.53 71 34
108 Norfolk State 32.5% +0.53 71 28
109 Stanford 32.5% +0.53 70 33
110 Valparaiso 32.5% +0.52 70 32
111 Alabama 32.4% +0.51 70 35
112 Maryland Eastern Shore 32.4% +0.50 70 30
113 USC 32.4% +0.50 69 31
114 Oregon 32.3% +0.49 69 32
115 Mount St. Mary's 32.3% +0.48 69 31
116 Elon 32.2% +0.47 68 30
117 Northern Kentucky 32.2% +0.47 68 31
118 Villanova 32.2% +0.47 68 33
119 Nevada 32.2% +0.46 68 37
120 Incarnate Word 32.1% +0.44 67 28
121 Arkansas 32.0% +0.41 67 37
122 Texas A&M 32.0% +0.41 67 34
123 App State 32.0% +0.40 66 30
124 Missouri State 32.0% +0.40 66 31
125 Fairleigh Dickinson 32.0% +0.40 66 29
126 Navy 31.9% +0.39 66 32
127 Marshall 31.9% +0.39 65 31
128 Alabama State 31.9% +0.38 65 31
129 Virginia Tech 31.9% +0.38 65 32
130 Cal State Northridge 31.9% +0.37 65 32
131 High Point 31.8% +0.36 64 33
132 Weber State 31.8% +0.36 64 30
133 Siena 31.8% +0.36 64 35
134 Western Kentucky 31.8% +0.35 63 30
135 Providence 31.7% +0.34 63 33
136 North Carolina A&T 31.7% +0.34 63 28
137 Jacksonville 31.7% +0.33 63 30
138 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 31.7% +0.33 62 29
139 VCU 31.6% +0.32 62 36
140 Florida Atlantic 31.6% +0.30 62 31
141 Tarleton State 31.5% +0.29 62 28
142 West Georgia 31.5% +0.28 61 30
143 Little Rock 31.5% +0.27 61 30
144 Southern 31.4% +0.26 61 31
145 Southern Indiana 31.4% +0.26 60 28
146 South Carolina State 31.4% +0.25 60 30
147 Saint Joseph's 31.4% +0.24 60 34
148 San Francisco 31.3% +0.24 60 32
149 George Mason 31.3% +0.24 59 32
150 Grand Canyon 31.3% +0.24 59 32
151 Tennessee Tech 31.3% +0.24 59 28
152 Oakland 31.3% +0.23 59 31
153 Eastern Washington 31.3% +0.22 58 32
154 Hawai'i 31.3% +0.22 58 31
155 Notre Dame 31.2% +0.21 58 31
156 Drexel 31.2% +0.21 57 32
157 Monmouth 31.2% +0.20 57 33
158 Vanderbilt 31.2% +0.20 57 36
159 North Carolina 31.2% +0.20 57 33
160 North Alabama 31.2% +0.19 56 28
161 Florida Gulf Coast 31.1% +0.18 56 32
162 UCLA 31.0% +0.17 56 36
163 Rhode Island 31.0% +0.16 55 32
164 Abilene Christian 31.0% +0.16 55 30
165 UC Santa Barbara 31.0% +0.15 55 30
166 UC Irvine 31.0% +0.14 55 33
167 Southern Illinois 30.9% +0.13 54 31
168 Florida A&M 30.9% +0.12 54 29
169 Oklahoma State 30.8% +0.10 54 35
170 Florida State 30.8% +0.09 54 33
171 Middle Tennessee 30.7% +0.07 53 29
172 Morgan State 30.7% +0.07 53 27
173 Saint Louis 30.7% +0.07 53 34
174 Cincinnati 30.6% +0.06 52 33
175 James Madison 30.6% +0.06 52 32
176 New Mexico 30.6% +0.05 52 36
177 Western Michigan 30.5% +0.03 52 29
178 West Virginia 30.5% +0.03 51 35
179 Loyola Chicago 30.5% +0.02 51 33
180 Furman 30.5% +0.02 51 32
181 Cal State Bakersfield 30.4% +0.01 51 30
182 Youngstown State 30.4% +0.01 50 29
183 Coppin State 30.4% +0.01 50 30
184 Duquesne 30.4% +0.01 50 31
185 Ohio State 30.4% -0.00 49 34
186 South Dakota State 30.3% -0.01 49 29
187 Northern Illinois 30.3% -0.01 49 28
188 Grambling 30.3% -0.03 49 31
189 UNLV 30.2% -0.04 48 34
190 Queens University 30.2% -0.04 48 34
191 UTSA 30.2% -0.05 48 28
192 Iowa 30.2% -0.05 48 37
193 Cornell 30.2% -0.05 47 26
194 Bethune-Cookman 30.1% -0.06 47 31
195 SIU Edwardsville 30.1% -0.07 47 29
196 Wake Forest 30.1% -0.08 46 35
197 DePaul 30.0% -0.09 46 32
198 Colorado State 30.0% -0.09 46 33
199 Portland State 30.0% -0.10 46 28
200 Pennsylvania 30.0% -0.11 45 29
201 North Carolina Central 30.0% -0.11 45 28
202 Cal Poly 30.0% -0.11 45 31
203 Georgia Tech 29.9% -0.11 45 31
204 Charleston 29.9% -0.12 44 31
205 Houston Christian 29.9% -0.13 44 30
206 Arizona State 29.8% -0.14 44 33
207 Radford 29.8% -0.14 43 29
208 Jacksonville State 29.8% -0.14 43 29
209 Temple 29.8% -0.14 43 31
210 Mississippi State 29.8% -0.14 43 32
211 UNC Asheville 29.8% -0.15 42 29
212 Wofford 29.8% -0.15 42 30
213 Denver 29.8% -0.16 42 29
214 Austin Peay 29.7% -0.17 41 29
215 Jackson State 29.7% -0.17 41 33
216 Marquette 29.7% -0.18 41 32
217 Rutgers 29.7% -0.18 41 34
218 Southeast Missouri State 29.6% -0.20 40 30
219 Army 29.6% -0.20 40 30
220 Toledo 29.5% -0.22 40 32
221 Washington State 29.5% -0.23 40 31
222 San Diego State 29.5% -0.23 39 32
223 Charleston Southern 29.4% -0.25 39 29
224 Utah 29.3% -0.27 39 32
225 San José State 29.3% -0.27 38 32
226 Canisius 29.3% -0.28 38 30
227 Kansas 29.2% -0.29 38 35
228 Syracuse 29.2% -0.29 38 32
229 Kansas State 29.2% -0.30 37 32
230 Central Michigan 29.2% -0.30 37 29
231 South Carolina Upstate 29.2% -0.31 37 29
232 Wisconsin 29.1% -0.33 37 35
233 Marist 29.1% -0.33 36 30
234 Pepperdine 29.1% -0.34 36 30
235 Colorado 29.0% -0.35 36 33
236 Brown 29.0% -0.36 35 25
237 Texas Southern 28.8% -0.40 35 28
238 Georgia Southern 28.8% -0.41 35 35
239 Southern Utah 28.8% -0.41 35 29
240 Central Arkansas 28.8% -0.42 34 32
241 Belmont 28.8% -0.42 34 31
242 South Dakota 28.7% -0.44 34 29
243 IU Indianapolis 28.7% -0.44 34 30
244 Bowling Green 28.7% -0.44 33 29
245 SE Louisiana 28.6% -0.45 33 30
246 Sacred Heart 28.6% -0.46 33 32
247 Manhattan 28.6% -0.46 32 31
248 Ohio 28.4% -0.50 32 30
249 Oral Roberts 28.4% -0.51 32 30
250 Idaho 28.4% -0.51 32 33
251 Louisiana 28.3% -0.52 31 33
252 East Tennessee State 28.3% -0.53 31 32
253 Ole Miss 28.3% -0.53 31 35
254 Boston College 28.3% -0.53 30 31
255 Chicago State 28.3% -0.55 30 31
256 Eastern Illinois 28.2% -0.55 30 30
257 UT Rio Grande Valley 28.2% -0.56 30 31
258 NC State 28.2% -0.57 29 34
259 UNC Greensboro 28.1% -0.58 29 32
260 Northwestern 28.1% -0.58 29 34
261 Utah Tech 28.1% -0.58 29 31
262 San Diego 28.1% -0.58 28 31
263 Nicholls 28.1% -0.58 28 32
264 Clemson 28.1% -0.58 28 35
265 Davidson 28.1% -0.58 27 32
266 Portland 28.1% -0.59 27 32
267 Stony Brook 28.0% -0.60 27 30
268 Illinois State 28.0% -0.61 27 35
269 Boston University 28.0% -0.62 26 33
270 The Citadel 27.9% -0.63 26 30
271 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 27.9% -0.64 26 30
272 Fresno State 27.9% -0.65 26 31
273 Eastern Michigan 27.8% -0.66 25 30
274 Iona 27.8% -0.66 25 32
275 UC Riverside 27.8% -0.67 25 30
276 Bryant 27.7% -0.67 24 29
277 Delaware State 27.7% -0.68 24 27
278 Georgia State 27.7% -0.69 24 30
279 Loyola Maryland 27.6% -0.71 24 30
280 Saint Francis 27.5% -0.74 23 29
281 Central Connecticut 27.5% -0.74 23 28
282 Stonehill 27.5% -0.74 23 31
283 Alabama A&M 27.5% -0.75 23 30
284 North Dakota 27.4% -0.76 22 32
285 Bradley 27.4% -0.77 22 33
286 Northeastern 27.3% -0.79 22 31
287 Princeton 27.2% -0.80 21 28
288 Northern Colorado 27.2% -0.81 21 29
289 South Carolina 27.2% -0.82 21 32
290 Ball State 27.1% -0.83 21 29
291 Buffalo 27.1% -0.83 20 30
292 Montana State 27.0% -0.85 20 29
293 Western Illinois 27.0% -0.87 20 28
294 Cleveland State 27.0% -0.87 20 30
295 Bucknell 27.0% -0.87 19 33
296 Coastal Carolina 26.9% -0.88 19 31
297 Alcorn State 26.9% -0.88 19 32
298 Dayton 26.9% -0.88 18 37
299 American University 26.9% -0.89 18 30
300 Indiana 26.9% -0.90 18 32
301 Creighton 26.9% -0.90 18 34
302 Harvard 26.8% -0.91 17 28
303 Oregon State 26.8% -0.92 17 33
304 Minnesota 26.8% -0.93 17 33
305 Prairie View A&M 26.7% -0.94 16 33
306 Nebraska 26.7% -0.95 16 35
307 Loyola Marymount 26.7% -0.95 16 31
308 Stetson 26.6% -0.96 16 31
309 Colgate 26.6% -0.97 15 31
310 Drake 26.6% -0.97 15 32
311 Xavier 26.5% -0.98 15 33
312 Mercyhurst 26.4% -1.01 15 32
313 Mississippi Valley State 26.4% -1.02 14 32
314 Kansas City 26.4% -1.02 14 28
315 Long Beach State 26.2% -1.06 14 30
316 NJIT 26.2% -1.06 13 32
317 Indiana State 26.2% -1.06 13 30
318 Vermont 26.2% -1.07 13 32
319 UTEP 26.2% -1.07 13 28
320 UC San Diego 26.1% -1.10 12 32
321 Northwestern State 26.1% -1.10 12 30
322 California 26.0% -1.12 12 33
323 Old Dominion 26.0% -1.12 12 32
324 William & Mary 26.0% -1.13 11 30
325 Penn State 25.9% -1.14 11 32
326 Lafayette 25.8% -1.17 11 31
327 Lipscomb 25.8% -1.17 10 30
328 East Texas A&M 25.7% -1.18 10 30
329 New Hampshire 25.7% -1.19 10 28
330 VMI 25.6% -1.21 10 29
331 Omaha 25.5% -1.23 9 29
332 Miami (OH) 25.5% -1.25 9 31
333 Samford 25.3% -1.30 9 30
334 UC Davis 25.2% -1.32 9 31
335 North Florida 25.2% -1.32 8 30
336 Sacramento State 25.2% -1.32 8 28
337 Le Moyne 25.2% -1.33 8 31
338 UL Monroe 25.1% -1.34 7 30
339 Green Bay 25.1% -1.35 7 31
340 Richmond 25.0% -1.38 7 31
341 South Alabama 25.0% -1.38 7 31
342 UMBC 24.9% -1.40 6 31
343 Merrimack 24.8% -1.41 6 34
344 Niagara 24.8% -1.43 6 29
345 Cal State Fullerton 24.6% -1.48 5 32
346 Dartmouth 23.7% -1.69 5 25
347 Seattle U 23.7% -1.71 5 33
348 Northern Arizona 23.3% -1.80 5 29
349 Lehigh 23.2% -1.83 4 33
350 Gardner-Webb 23.2% -1.84 4 30
351 Purdue Fort Wayne 22.9% -1.91 4 29
352 Tulane 22.8% -1.94 4 32
353 St. Thomas-Minnesota 22.6% -1.98 3 31
354 Bellarmine 22.4% -2.02 3 30
355 Evansville 22.0% -2.13 3 30
356 Holy Cross 21.9% -2.17 2 31
357 Northern Iowa 21.8% -2.19 2 35
358 Chattanooga 21.8% -2.19 2 29
359 New Haven 21.5% -2.26 2 28
360 Air Force 21.4% -2.28 1 32
361 Binghamton 20.9% -2.41 1 28
362 Delaware 20.8% -2.44 1 30
363 Montana 20.7% -2.47 1 30
364 Maine 19.7% -2.72 0 31
365 Liberty 19.3% -2.83 0 31