And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 61% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 62.3 max 89.6 mean 74.8 std 4.9 (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponent Points Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Houston 62.3 -2.58 100 37
2 Northern Iowa 62.5 -2.53 100 35
3 Duke 63.6 -2.31 99 38
4 Marist 63.9 -2.25 99 30
5 UT Martin 64.7 -2.09 99 30
6 UConn 65.2 -1.99 99 40
7 Saint Mary's 65.2 -1.98 98 32
8 Seton Hall 65.3 -1.96 98 33
9 Iowa State 65.6 -1.90 98 37
10 Navy 65.6 -1.90 98 32
11 West Virginia 65.7 -1.87 97 35
12 Siena 65.8 -1.86 97 35
13 SIU Edwardsville 65.9 -1.84 97 29
14 Nebraska 66.1 -1.79 96 35
15 Gonzaga 66.2 -1.78 96 35
16 Iowa 66.3 -1.76 96 37
17 Fordham 66.3 -1.75 96 29
18 Towson 66.4 -1.73 95 32
19 Merrimack 66.5 -1.72 95 34
20 Stephen F. Austin 66.7 -1.68 95 32
21 Clemson 66.7 -1.67 95 35
22 Harvard 67.3 -1.56 94 28
23 McNeese 67.4 -1.54 94 32
24 New Haven 67.4 -1.53 94 28
25 App State 67.4 -1.52 93 30
26 Drexel 67.6 -1.50 93 32
27 Cincinnati 67.6 -1.50 93 33
28 California Baptist 67.6 -1.49 93 34
29 UT Arlington 67.8 -1.46 92 30
30 Louisiana Tech 67.8 -1.45 92 31
31 George Mason 68.0 -1.41 92 32
32 UNC Wilmington 68.1 -1.38 91 32
33 Rhode Island 68.2 -1.37 91 32
34 Seattle U 68.2 -1.36 91 33
35 North Texas 68.2 -1.36 91 31
36 Hofstra 68.2 -1.36 90 33
37 Michigan State 68.3 -1.34 90 35
38 Minnesota 68.5 -1.31 90 33
39 Maine 68.5 -1.30 90 31
40 Davidson 68.5 -1.30 89 32
41 UMBC 68.5 -1.29 89 31
42 Grand Canyon 68.7 -1.27 89 32
43 Mercyhurst 68.7 -1.27 88 32
44 Vermont 68.8 -1.25 88 32
45 Illinois 68.8 -1.25 88 37
46 Virginia 68.8 -1.24 88 36
47 Kansas 69.1 -1.19 87 35
48 Saint Peter's 69.1 -1.19 87 28
49 Illinois State 69.1 -1.18 87 35
50 Dayton 69.3 -1.14 87 37
51 Howard 69.4 -1.13 86 31
52 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 69.4 -1.12 86 29
53 Arizona 69.4 -1.12 86 39
54 UC Irvine 69.4 -1.12 85 33
55 Michigan 69.5 -1.10 85 40
56 Stonehill 69.5 -1.10 85 31
57 DePaul 69.6 -1.09 85 32
58 Tennessee 69.6 -1.08 84 37
59 St. John's 69.6 -1.07 84 37
60 Pacific 69.8 -1.03 84 31
61 East Tennessee State 70.1 -0.97 84 32
62 Southern Illinois 70.5 -0.90 83 31
63 UC San Diego 70.5 -0.90 83 32
64 Lamar 70.5 -0.90 83 29
65 Purdue 70.5 -0.88 82 39
66 Jacksonville State 70.6 -0.87 82 29
67 UT Rio Grande Valley 70.6 -0.87 82 31
68 Louisiana 70.7 -0.86 82 33
69 Saint Joseph's 70.7 -0.86 81 34
70 Boston College 70.7 -0.86 81 31
71 Wichita State 70.8 -0.83 81 35
72 Utah Valley 70.8 -0.83 80 31
73 Monmouth 70.9 -0.80 80 33
74 Mount St. Mary's 71.0 -0.78 80 31
75 UCLA 71.1 -0.78 80 36
76 Hawai'i 71.2 -0.76 79 31
77 Temple 71.2 -0.75 79 31
78 Utah State 71.2 -0.75 79 35
79 Portland State 71.2 -0.75 79 28
80 UIC 71.2 -0.74 78 33
81 Villanova 71.2 -0.74 78 33
82 Miami 71.3 -0.74 78 35
83 Grambling 71.3 -0.74 77 31
84 South Alabama 71.3 -0.73 77 31
85 SE Louisiana 71.3 -0.73 77 30
86 San Diego State 71.3 -0.72 77 32
87 Canisius 71.4 -0.71 76 30
88 Ball State 71.4 -0.71 76 29
89 Delaware State 71.4 -0.71 76 27
90 North Dakota State 71.4 -0.70 76 32
91 Maryland Eastern Shore 71.5 -0.68 75 30
92 Nevada 71.5 -0.68 75 37
93 Florida 71.5 -0.68 75 35
94 Saint Louis 71.6 -0.67 74 34
95 Colorado State 71.6 -0.67 74 33
96 New Mexico 71.6 -0.67 74 36
97 North Carolina 71.6 -0.66 74 33
98 Niagara 71.7 -0.65 73 29
99 Long Island University 71.7 -0.64 73 35
100 VCU 71.8 -0.63 73 36
101 Pittsburgh 71.8 -0.62 73 33
102 Yale 71.8 -0.62 72 29
103 Valparaiso 71.9 -0.61 72 32
104 Fairfield 71.9 -0.60 72 33
105 Central Connecticut 72.0 -0.59 71 28
106 Northwestern 72.0 -0.59 71 34
107 TCU 72.1 -0.57 71 35
108 Hampton 72.1 -0.56 71 30
109 Indiana 72.2 -0.55 70 32
110 Liberty 72.2 -0.55 70 31
111 Eastern Illinois 72.2 -0.54 70 30
112 Southeast Missouri State 72.3 -0.53 70 30
113 Houston Christian 72.4 -0.50 69 30
114 Princeton 72.4 -0.49 69 28
115 Brown 72.4 -0.49 69 25
116 Furman 72.5 -0.49 68 32
117 Stony Brook 72.5 -0.48 68 30
118 Texas State 72.5 -0.48 68 30
119 Louisville 72.5 -0.48 68 35
120 Ohio State 72.6 -0.46 67 34
121 Quinnipiac 72.6 -0.46 67 31
122 Loyola Marymount 72.6 -0.45 67 31
123 Fairleigh Dickinson 72.7 -0.45 66 29
124 American University 72.7 -0.45 66 30
125 UTEP 72.7 -0.44 66 28
126 Wagner 72.7 -0.44 66 28
127 Bowling Green 72.7 -0.43 65 29
128 High Point 72.8 -0.42 65 33
129 Northwestern State 72.9 -0.40 65 30
130 Georgetown 72.9 -0.40 65 34
131 Wyoming 72.9 -0.39 64 32
132 Stanford 73.0 -0.38 64 33
133 Presbyterian 73.1 -0.36 64 30
134 Texas Tech 73.1 -0.36 63 34
135 St. Thomas-Minnesota 73.1 -0.36 63 31
136 Iona 73.1 -0.35 63 32
137 Boise State 73.2 -0.34 63 30
138 Bryant 73.3 -0.31 62 29
139 Robert Morris 73.4 -0.30 62 31
140 California 73.4 -0.30 62 33
141 Santa Clara 73.5 -0.27 62 34
142 Coastal Carolina 73.5 -0.27 61 31
143 Fresno State 73.5 -0.27 61 31
144 Montana State 73.5 -0.27 61 29
145 Columbia 73.5 -0.27 60 26
146 Washington 73.6 -0.25 60 33
147 NJIT 73.7 -0.24 60 32
148 UC Santa Barbara 73.7 -0.23 60 30
149 San Francisco 73.8 -0.22 59 32
150 New Mexico State 73.8 -0.21 59 29
151 Abilene Christian 73.9 -0.20 59 30
152 Alabama A&M 73.9 -0.20 59 30
153 Charleston 73.9 -0.20 58 31
154 Le Moyne 73.9 -0.19 58 31
155 Oregon 73.9 -0.18 58 32
156 Delaware 74.1 -0.16 57 30
157 Idaho 74.1 -0.15 57 33
158 Belmont 74.1 -0.14 57 31
159 Oregon State 74.2 -0.14 57 33
160 Little Rock 74.2 -0.14 56 30
161 UNC Asheville 74.2 -0.14 56 29
162 Bradley 74.2 -0.13 56 33
163 Syracuse 74.3 -0.12 55 32
164 Charlotte 74.3 -0.11 55 33
165 Southern Indiana 74.3 -0.11 55 28
166 Missouri State 74.3 -0.10 55 31
167 Kentucky 74.3 -0.10 54 36
168 UAB 74.4 -0.10 54 31
169 Eastern Michigan 74.4 -0.10 54 30
170 James Madison 74.4 -0.09 54 32
171 Lehigh 74.4 -0.08 53 33
172 Pennsylvania 74.4 -0.08 53 29
173 Boston University 74.5 -0.08 53 33
174 Tulsa 74.5 -0.07 52 36
175 Richmond 74.5 -0.06 52 31
176 South Dakota State 74.5 -0.06 52 29
177 UAlbany 74.5 -0.06 52 29
178 Troy 74.5 -0.06 51 32
179 Austin Peay 74.6 -0.05 51 29
180 Middle Tennessee 74.6 -0.04 51 29
181 Norfolk State 74.7 -0.03 51 28
182 Holy Cross 74.8 -0.01 50 31
183 Southern Miss 74.8 -0.00 50 33
184 Virginia Tech 74.9 +0.01 50 32
185 Youngstown State 74.9 +0.01 49 29
186 La Salle 75.0 +0.03 49 31
187 Vanderbilt 75.0 +0.03 49 36
188 Akron 75.0 +0.04 49 33
189 Incarnate Word 75.0 +0.04 48 28
190 Lindenwood 75.0 +0.04 48 30
191 Tennessee State 75.1 +0.05 48 30
192 Florida A&M 75.1 +0.05 48 29
193 Indiana State 75.1 +0.06 47 30
194 Jacksonville 75.2 +0.07 47 30
195 Creighton 75.2 +0.08 47 34
196 George Washington 75.2 +0.08 46 34
197 Florida Atlantic 75.3 +0.10 46 31
198 Notre Dame 75.3 +0.10 46 31
199 Rutgers 75.3 +0.10 46 34
200 Lafayette 75.4 +0.11 45 31
201 St. Bonaventure 75.4 +0.12 45 33
202 BYU 75.4 +0.12 45 35
203 Georgia State 75.4 +0.12 45 30
204 Missouri 75.5 +0.14 44 33
205 Morehead State 75.5 +0.15 44 30
206 Wright State 75.6 +0.16 44 33
207 Tennessee Tech 75.6 +0.16 43 28
208 Tulane 75.7 +0.17 43 32
209 Nicholls 75.7 +0.18 43 32
210 South Carolina Upstate 75.7 +0.18 43 29
211 Tarleton State 75.8 +0.19 42 28
212 Loyola Chicago 75.8 +0.19 42 33
213 Marquette 75.8 +0.20 42 32
214 Duquesne 75.9 +0.21 41 31
215 Green Bay 75.9 +0.21 41 31
216 Central Arkansas 76.0 +0.23 41 32
217 UC Davis 76.0 +0.25 41 31
218 East Texas A&M 76.0 +0.25 40 30
219 Ole Miss 76.1 +0.26 40 35
220 Texas 76.1 +0.26 40 35
221 Wisconsin 76.1 +0.26 40 35
222 Colgate 76.2 +0.28 39 31
223 Longwood 76.2 +0.29 39 29
224 NC State 76.3 +0.30 39 34
225 Drake 76.3 +0.30 38 32
226 Bucknell 76.3 +0.30 38 33
227 New Hampshire 76.4 +0.31 38 28
228 South Carolina 76.5 +0.34 38 32
229 Miami (OH) 76.5 +0.34 37 31
230 South Florida 76.5 +0.35 37 33
231 Chicago State 76.5 +0.35 37 31
232 Maryland 76.6 +0.36 37 33
233 Binghamton 76.7 +0.38 36 28
234 Memphis 76.7 +0.38 36 32
235 Rice 76.8 +0.40 36 29
236 Rider 76.8 +0.40 35 28
237 Sam Houston 76.9 +0.43 35 31
238 Baylor 76.9 +0.43 35 33
239 Wake Forest 76.9 +0.44 35 35
240 Samford 77.0 +0.44 34 30
241 Lipscomb 77.0 +0.45 34 30
242 Utah Tech 77.0 +0.45 34 31
243 Western Kentucky 77.0 +0.45 34 30
244 Buffalo 77.0 +0.45 33 30
245 Washington State 77.3 +0.50 33 31
246 North Carolina Central 77.3 +0.51 33 28
247 Georgia Tech 77.4 +0.53 32 31
248 Oklahoma 77.4 +0.54 32 37
249 UMass Lowell 77.4 +0.54 32 30
250 Toledo 77.4 +0.54 32 32
251 Bethune-Cookman 77.5 +0.55 31 31
252 Butler 77.5 +0.56 31 32
253 Sacred Heart 77.6 +0.56 31 32
254 Idaho State 77.6 +0.56 30 30
255 Montana 77.6 +0.56 30 30
256 Alabama State 77.6 +0.57 30 31
257 Northern Arizona 77.6 +0.58 30 29
258 Central Michigan 77.7 +0.58 29 29
259 Omaha 77.7 +0.58 29 29
260 New Orleans 77.7 +0.58 29 33
261 Winthrop 77.7 +0.59 29 31
262 East Carolina 77.7 +0.59 28 30
263 Mercer 77.8 +0.60 28 29
264 Florida State 77.9 +0.64 28 33
265 SMU 77.9 +0.64 27 34
266 Florida Gulf Coast 78.0 +0.65 27 32
267 North Alabama 78.0 +0.65 27 28
268 Arkansas State 78.0 +0.66 27 30
269 Chattanooga 78.1 +0.67 26 29
270 Northern Colorado 78.1 +0.67 26 29
271 Portland 78.1 +0.67 26 32
272 Kennesaw State 78.3 +0.71 26 32
273 Arizona State 78.3 +0.72 25 33
274 Evansville 78.3 +0.72 25 30
275 UCF 78.4 +0.73 25 33
276 Dartmouth 78.4 +0.74 24 25
277 USC 78.4 +0.74 24 31
278 North Carolina A&T 78.5 +0.75 24 28
279 LSU 78.5 +0.76 24 32
280 Loyola Maryland 78.5 +0.76 23 30
281 Western Illinois 78.5 +0.76 23 28
282 Wofford 78.6 +0.77 23 30
283 Old Dominion 78.7 +0.79 23 32
284 Northern Kentucky 78.7 +0.79 22 31
285 Detroit Mercy 78.7 +0.80 22 30
286 Purdue Fort Wayne 78.8 +0.81 22 29
287 Auburn 78.8 +0.81 21 38
288 Campbell 78.8 +0.82 21 32
289 Massachusetts 78.8 +0.82 21 32
290 San Diego 78.8 +0.83 21 31
291 Northern Illinois 78.9 +0.83 20 28
292 Marshall 78.9 +0.83 20 31
293 The Citadel 78.9 +0.84 20 30
294 William & Mary 78.9 +0.84 20 30
295 Prairie View A&M 78.9 +0.84 19 33
296 Texas A&M 78.9 +0.85 19 34
297 Army 79.0 +0.85 19 30
298 Long Beach State 79.0 +0.85 18 30
299 Western Carolina 79.0 +0.86 18 29
300 Weber State 79.1 +0.87 18 30
301 Florida International 79.1 +0.87 18 29
302 Utah 79.1 +0.88 17 32
303 UC Riverside 79.1 +0.88 17 30
304 Eastern Washington 79.2 +0.89 17 32
305 San José State 79.2 +0.90 16 32
306 UNLV 79.3 +0.91 16 34
307 Elon 79.3 +0.91 16 30
308 Penn State 79.3 +0.93 16 32
309 Manhattan 79.6 +0.98 15 31
310 North Dakota 79.6 +0.99 15 32
311 Pepperdine 79.7 +1.00 15 30
312 Oral Roberts 79.7 +1.01 15 30
313 Colorado 79.8 +1.02 14 33
314 Georgia 79.8 +1.03 14 33
315 Air Force 79.9 +1.04 14 32
316 Milwaukee 79.9 +1.05 13 31
317 Stetson 79.9 +1.05 13 31
318 Texas Southern 80.0 +1.06 13 28
319 Ohio 80.0 +1.07 13 30
320 Western Michigan 80.1 +1.08 12 29
321 Morgan State 80.1 +1.08 12 27
322 Alcorn State 80.2 +1.10 12 32
323 Murray State 80.2 +1.11 12 33
324 Southern 80.2 +1.11 11 31
325 Georgia Southern 80.3 +1.14 11 35
326 West Georgia 80.5 +1.17 11 30
327 South Carolina State 80.6 +1.19 10 30
328 Kent State 80.6 +1.19 10 32
329 Xavier 80.6 +1.20 10 33
330 Radford 80.8 +1.23 10 29
331 Charleston Southern 81.0 +1.26 9 29
332 Northeastern 81.0 +1.27 9 31
333 Arkansas 81.0 +1.28 9 37
334 Coppin State 81.0 +1.28 9 30
335 Southern Utah 81.3 +1.33 8 29
336 Cal State Northridge 81.3 +1.34 8 32
337 South Dakota 81.7 +1.41 8 29
338 Mississippi State 81.8 +1.44 7 32
339 Kansas State 81.8 +1.45 7 32
340 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 81.9 +1.45 7 30
341 UNC Greensboro 81.9 +1.46 7 32
342 Cal State Fullerton 82.2 +1.52 6 32
343 Alabama 82.7 +1.63 6 35
344 Oakland 82.8 +1.64 6 31
345 UTSA 82.9 +1.67 5 28
346 Eastern Kentucky 83.1 +1.70 5 30
347 Saint Francis 83.1 +1.70 5 29
348 VMI 83.2 +1.72 5 29
349 Oklahoma State 83.2 +1.73 4 35
350 Bellarmine 83.3 +1.75 4 30
351 Cal State Bakersfield 83.4 +1.77 4 30
352 Sacramento State 83.6 +1.81 4 28
353 Mississippi Valley State 83.7 +1.83 3 32
354 Jackson State 83.8 +1.84 3 33
355 Queens University 83.8 +1.84 3 34
356 Providence 84.0 +1.89 2 33
357 Denver 84.0 +1.90 2 29
358 Cornell 84.6 +2.02 2 26
359 Kansas City 84.8 +2.05 2 28
360 Cal Poly 85.3 +2.16 1 31
361 UL Monroe 85.4 +2.17 1 30
362 Gardner-Webb 86.7 +2.44 1 30
363 Cleveland State 88.6 +2.84 1 30
364 IU Indianapolis 89.2 +2.96 0 30
365 North Florida 89.6 +3.04 0 30