Free Nelson Mandela! "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.64 (team entering with the better value wins 60% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 45.7% max 56.5% mean 50.1% std 2.6% (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Opponents' Opponents' Win Percentage (OOWP) z Pctl GP
1 Michigan 56.5% +2.52 100 40
2 Alabama 56.5% +2.50 100 35
3 Kansas 56.1% +2.34 99 35
4 Purdue 55.9% +2.26 99 39
5 Houston 55.8% +2.21 99 37
6 Duke 55.8% +2.21 99 38
7 Arizona 55.6% +2.16 98 39
8 Michigan State 55.6% +2.13 98 35
9 Texas Tech 55.5% +2.09 98 34
10 Florida 55.2% +1.98 98 35
11 Tennessee 55.0% +1.93 97 37
12 USC 55.0% +1.91 97 31
13 UConn 55.0% +1.90 97 40
14 Illinois 54.9% +1.88 96 37
15 Louisville 54.9% +1.88 96 35
16 NC State 54.9% +1.87 96 34
17 UCLA 54.9% +1.86 96 36
18 TCU 54.7% +1.80 95 35
19 Vanderbilt 54.7% +1.79 95 36
20 Auburn 54.7% +1.78 95 38
21 Arkansas 54.6% +1.77 95 37
22 Washington 54.6% +1.74 94 33
23 St. John's 54.5% +1.71 94 37
24 Maryland 54.5% +1.70 94 33
25 UCF 54.5% +1.70 93 33
26 BYU 54.5% +1.70 93 35
27 Arizona State 54.4% +1.70 93 33
28 Oklahoma 54.4% +1.69 93 37
29 Texas 54.4% +1.68 92 35
30 Texas A&M 54.3% +1.66 92 34
31 Oregon 54.3% +1.65 92 32
32 Iowa State 54.2% +1.61 91 37
33 Kentucky 54.2% +1.61 91 36
34 Clemson 54.2% +1.60 91 35
35 Nebraska 54.2% +1.60 91 35
36 Baylor 54.2% +1.59 90 33
37 Ohio State 54.2% +1.59 90 34
38 Villanova 54.2% +1.59 90 33
39 Rutgers 54.1% +1.58 90 34
40 Mississippi State 54.1% +1.57 89 32
41 Minnesota 54.1% +1.56 89 33
42 Virginia 54.1% +1.54 89 36
43 North Carolina 54.0% +1.54 88 33
44 Cincinnati 54.0% +1.53 88 33
45 Indiana 54.0% +1.51 88 32
46 Wisconsin 53.9% +1.49 88 35
47 Iowa 53.9% +1.48 87 37
48 West Virginia 53.9% +1.47 87 35
49 Miami 53.9% +1.46 87 35
50 Ole Miss 53.8% +1.45 87 35
51 Oklahoma State 53.8% +1.44 86 35
52 LSU 53.8% +1.43 86 32
53 Notre Dame 53.7% +1.40 86 31
54 Kansas State 53.7% +1.39 85 32
55 San Diego State 53.7% +1.39 85 32
56 Stanford 53.6% +1.36 85 33
57 Utah 53.5% +1.33 85 32
58 Gonzaga 53.5% +1.33 84 35
59 Missouri 53.4% +1.30 84 33
60 Wake Forest 53.4% +1.29 84 35
61 Virginia Tech 53.4% +1.28 84 32
62 Pittsburgh 53.4% +1.28 83 33
63 Utah State 53.3% +1.26 83 35
64 Northwestern 53.3% +1.25 83 34
65 Georgia 53.3% +1.25 82 33
66 SMU 53.3% +1.23 82 34
67 Penn State 53.2% +1.20 82 32
68 Syracuse 53.2% +1.20 82 32
69 California 53.2% +1.20 81 33
70 Colorado 53.2% +1.19 81 33
71 South Carolina 53.0% +1.15 81 32
72 Florida State 53.0% +1.11 80 33
73 Providence 52.9% +1.09 80 33
74 UNLV 52.9% +1.08 80 34
75 Boise State 52.9% +1.07 80 30
76 Marquette 52.8% +1.07 79 32
77 VCU 52.6% +0.99 79 36
78 Creighton 52.6% +0.99 79 34
79 Butler 52.6% +0.97 79 32
80 San José State 52.6% +0.96 78 32
81 Memphis 52.5% +0.95 78 32
82 Colorado State 52.4% +0.89 78 33
83 Xavier 52.4% +0.88 77 33
84 Nevada 52.3% +0.85 77 37
85 New Mexico 52.3% +0.84 77 36
86 Davidson 52.0% +0.75 77 32
87 Santa Clara 52.0% +0.73 76 34
88 Georgia Tech 51.9% +0.72 76 31
89 Boston College 51.9% +0.71 76 31
90 Seton Hall 51.9% +0.70 76 33
91 Grand Canyon 51.8% +0.66 75 32
92 Saint Mary's 51.8% +0.66 75 32
93 Fresno State 51.7% +0.63 75 31
94 Illinois State 51.7% +0.62 74 35
95 DePaul 51.7% +0.61 74 32
96 Dayton 51.7% +0.61 74 37
97 Saint Joseph's 51.7% +0.60 74 34
98 Saint Louis 51.5% +0.56 73 34
99 Pacific 51.5% +0.55 73 31
100 Middle Tennessee 51.5% +0.54 73 29
101 Loyola Chicago 51.5% +0.54 73 33
102 Temple 51.5% +0.53 72 31
103 Duquesne 51.5% +0.52 72 31
104 La Salle 51.4% +0.52 72 31
105 Sam Houston 51.4% +0.51 71 31
106 George Mason 51.4% +0.51 71 32
107 South Florida 51.4% +0.50 71 33
108 Wyoming 51.4% +0.50 71 32
109 Tulsa 51.3% +0.48 70 36
110 George Washington 51.3% +0.47 70 34
111 Georgetown 51.3% +0.46 70 34
112 Florida Atlantic 51.2% +0.43 70 31
113 Western Kentucky 51.2% +0.42 69 30
114 Wichita State 51.2% +0.41 69 35
115 Belmont 51.1% +0.40 69 31
116 Evansville 51.1% +0.40 68 30
117 Akron 51.0% +0.35 68 33
118 Washington State 51.0% +0.35 68 31
119 Oakland 51.0% +0.34 68 31
120 Northern Iowa 50.9% +0.32 67 35
121 Liberty 50.9% +0.32 67 31
122 Seattle U 50.9% +0.31 67 33
123 Richmond 50.9% +0.29 66 31
124 Hofstra 50.8% +0.28 66 33
125 Queens University 50.8% +0.28 66 34
126 Charlotte 50.7% +0.22 66 33
127 St. Bonaventure 50.7% +0.22 65 33
128 Pennsylvania 50.7% +0.22 65 29
129 San Francisco 50.7% +0.21 65 32
130 UAB 50.6% +0.20 65 31
131 California Baptist 50.6% +0.20 64 34
132 Rice 50.6% +0.19 64 29
133 Rhode Island 50.6% +0.18 64 32
134 Valparaiso 50.5% +0.14 63 32
135 Kennesaw State 50.5% +0.13 63 32
136 Portland 50.5% +0.13 63 32
137 Bradley 50.4% +0.13 63 33
138 Oregon State 50.4% +0.12 62 33
139 Miami (OH) 50.4% +0.12 62 31
140 North Texas 50.3% +0.08 62 31
141 Hawai'i 50.3% +0.05 62 31
142 Ohio 50.2% +0.03 61 30
143 Delaware 50.2% +0.03 61 30
144 UTSA 50.2% +0.02 61 28
145 Campbell 50.1% +0.01 60 32
146 New Orleans 50.1% -0.03 60 33
147 Loyola Marymount 50.0% -0.03 60 31
148 New Mexico State 50.0% -0.03 60 29
149 San Diego 50.0% -0.04 59 31
150 Murray State 50.0% -0.06 59 33
151 Towson 49.9% -0.09 59 32
152 Louisiana Tech 49.9% -0.09 59 31
153 Cornell 49.9% -0.09 58 26
154 Central Arkansas 49.9% -0.10 58 32
155 McNeese 49.9% -0.10 58 32
156 Florida International 49.8% -0.11 57 29
157 East Carolina 49.8% -0.12 57 30
158 Utah Valley 49.8% -0.12 57 31
159 Detroit Mercy 49.8% -0.14 57 30
160 UC Davis 49.7% -0.15 56 31
161 UT Arlington 49.7% -0.15 56 30
162 Missouri State 49.7% -0.16 56 31
163 Kent State 49.7% -0.16 55 32
164 Long Beach State 49.7% -0.16 55 30
165 Charleston 49.7% -0.17 55 31
166 Purdue Fort Wayne 49.7% -0.17 55 29
167 Tarleton State 49.7% -0.18 54 28
168 William & Mary 49.7% -0.18 54 30
169 Pepperdine 49.6% -0.19 54 30
170 Long Island University 49.6% -0.19 54 35
171 Tulane 49.6% -0.19 53 32
172 Abilene Christian 49.6% -0.21 53 30
173 Troy 49.5% -0.23 53 32
174 Western Carolina 49.5% -0.23 52 29
175 Mercer 49.5% -0.23 52 29
176 Fordham 49.5% -0.24 52 29
177 Eastern Washington 49.5% -0.26 52 32
178 Eastern Michigan 49.5% -0.26 51 30
179 UC Santa Barbara 49.4% -0.27 51 30
180 Cal State Fullerton 49.4% -0.28 51 32
181 High Point 49.4% -0.28 51 33
182 Montana State 49.4% -0.29 50 29
183 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 49.4% -0.29 50 29
184 Princeton 49.4% -0.30 50 28
185 Jackson State 49.3% -0.30 49 33
186 Toledo 49.3% -0.31 49 32
187 Harvard 49.3% -0.31 49 28
188 Robert Morris 49.3% -0.33 49 31
189 UIC 49.3% -0.34 48 33
190 Lipscomb 49.2% -0.34 48 30
191 Elon 49.2% -0.34 48 30
192 Southern Utah 49.2% -0.36 48 29
193 Central Michigan 49.2% -0.36 47 29
194 Utah Tech 49.2% -0.36 47 31
195 Florida Gulf Coast 49.2% -0.37 47 32
196 UTEP 49.2% -0.37 46 28
197 Georgia State 49.1% -0.38 46 30
198 Cal Poly 49.1% -0.39 46 31
199 Wofford 49.1% -0.39 46 30
200 South Alabama 49.1% -0.39 45 31
201 Bethune-Cookman 49.1% -0.39 45 31
202 Southern Illinois 49.1% -0.40 45 31
203 Green Bay 49.1% -0.41 45 31
204 Drexel 49.1% -0.41 44 32
205 Jacksonville State 49.1% -0.41 44 29
206 Yale 49.1% -0.41 44 29
207 UC San Diego 49.1% -0.42 43 32
208 Monmouth 49.1% -0.42 43 33
209 UNC Wilmington 49.1% -0.42 43 32
210 Ball State 49.0% -0.43 43 29
211 Old Dominion 49.0% -0.43 42 32
212 Winthrop 49.0% -0.44 42 31
213 Northern Illinois 49.0% -0.44 42 28
214 Radford 49.0% -0.44 41 29
215 Milwaukee 49.0% -0.45 41 31
216 Northern Colorado 49.0% -0.45 41 29
217 Cal State Northridge 49.0% -0.46 41 32
218 Georgia Southern 48.9% -0.46 40 35
219 Austin Peay 48.9% -0.47 40 29
220 Southern Miss 48.9% -0.48 40 33
221 Montana 48.9% -0.48 40 30
222 Weber State 48.9% -0.49 39 30
223 North Dakota State 48.9% -0.50 39 32
224 Stony Brook 48.9% -0.50 39 30
225 Merrimack 48.9% -0.50 38 34
226 Bellarmine 48.8% -0.51 38 30
227 Rider 48.8% -0.51 38 28
228 App State 48.8% -0.51 38 30
229 UT Rio Grande Valley 48.8% -0.51 37 31
230 North Carolina Central 48.8% -0.51 37 28
231 UC Riverside 48.8% -0.52 37 30
232 Arkansas State 48.8% -0.52 37 30
233 Nicholls 48.8% -0.53 36 32
234 Southern 48.8% -0.53 36 31
235 North Dakota 48.7% -0.55 36 32
236 Bowling Green 48.7% -0.55 35 29
237 West Georgia 48.7% -0.55 35 30
238 South Dakota State 48.7% -0.56 35 29
239 Indiana State 48.7% -0.56 35 30
240 Denver 48.7% -0.56 34 29
241 Marshall 48.7% -0.57 34 31
242 Samford 48.7% -0.57 34 30
243 Northeastern 48.7% -0.57 34 31
244 Drake 48.7% -0.58 33 32
245 Wright State 48.6% -0.58 33 33
246 Massachusetts 48.6% -0.58 33 32
247 Idaho 48.6% -0.59 32 33
248 Youngstown State 48.6% -0.59 32 29
249 Northern Arizona 48.6% -0.59 32 29
250 Cal State Bakersfield 48.6% -0.60 32 30
251 Mount St. Mary's 48.6% -0.61 31 31
252 Columbia 48.5% -0.62 31 26
253 Air Force 48.5% -0.62 31 32
254 Norfolk State 48.5% -0.62 30 28
255 Navy 48.5% -0.62 30 32
256 St. Thomas-Minnesota 48.5% -0.63 30 31
257 Cleveland State 48.5% -0.64 30 30
258 Kansas City 48.5% -0.64 29 28
259 Texas State 48.5% -0.65 29 30
260 Omaha 48.4% -0.66 29 29
261 Dartmouth 48.4% -0.67 29 25
262 James Madison 48.4% -0.67 28 32
263 Iona 48.3% -0.70 28 32
264 SE Louisiana 48.3% -0.71 28 30
265 Colgate 48.3% -0.71 27 31
266 South Dakota 48.3% -0.71 27 29
267 Alcorn State 48.3% -0.71 27 32
268 Coastal Carolina 48.3% -0.71 27 31
269 UNC Greensboro 48.3% -0.72 26 32
270 UC Irvine 48.3% -0.72 26 33
271 Quinnipiac 48.3% -0.72 26 31
272 Oral Roberts 48.3% -0.73 26 30
273 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 48.2% -0.73 25 30
274 Buffalo 48.2% -0.74 25 30
275 Stetson 48.2% -0.74 25 31
276 Eastern Kentucky 48.2% -0.74 24 30
277 North Alabama 48.2% -0.74 24 28
278 North Carolina A&T 48.2% -0.75 24 28
279 Jacksonville 48.1% -0.77 24 30
280 Idaho State 48.1% -0.78 23 30
281 Lamar 48.1% -0.78 23 29
282 Portland State 48.1% -0.79 23 28
283 Eastern Illinois 48.1% -0.79 23 30
284 Stephen F. Austin 48.1% -0.79 22 32
285 Furman 48.1% -0.80 22 32
286 Chattanooga 48.1% -0.81 22 29
287 Alabama State 48.0% -0.81 21 31
288 Florida A&M 48.0% -0.83 21 29
289 UAlbany 48.0% -0.84 21 29
290 Sacramento State 48.0% -0.85 21 28
291 North Florida 47.9% -0.85 20 30
292 Coppin State 47.9% -0.86 20 30
293 South Carolina Upstate 47.9% -0.86 20 29
294 IU Indianapolis 47.9% -0.86 20 30
295 Northern Kentucky 47.9% -0.86 19 31
296 Louisiana 47.9% -0.87 19 33
297 SIU Edwardsville 47.9% -0.87 19 29
298 Saint Peter's 47.9% -0.87 18 28
299 Prairie View A&M 47.9% -0.88 18 33
300 Charleston Southern 47.9% -0.88 18 29
301 Howard 47.9% -0.88 18 31
302 East Texas A&M 47.8% -0.90 17 30
303 Maryland Eastern Shore 47.8% -0.90 17 30
304 Hampton 47.8% -0.90 17 30
305 Texas Southern 47.8% -0.91 16 28
306 Brown 47.8% -0.92 16 25
307 Sacred Heart 47.7% -0.93 16 32
308 Bucknell 47.7% -0.93 16 33
309 Marist 47.7% -0.95 15 30
310 South Carolina State 47.6% -0.97 15 30
311 The Citadel 47.6% -0.97 15 30
312 Western Michigan 47.6% -0.98 15 29
313 American University 47.6% -0.98 14 30
314 Gardner-Webb 47.6% -0.99 14 30
315 New Haven 47.6% -0.99 14 28
316 Presbyterian 47.6% -1.00 13 30
317 Vermont 47.6% -1.01 13 32
318 Manhattan 47.5% -1.01 13 31
319 Northwestern State 47.5% -1.01 13 30
320 East Tennessee State 47.5% -1.01 12 32
321 UL Monroe 47.5% -1.03 12 30
322 Tennessee State 47.5% -1.03 12 30
323 UNC Asheville 47.5% -1.04 12 29
324 Mississippi Valley State 47.5% -1.04 11 32
325 Tennessee Tech 47.4% -1.05 11 28
326 Siena 47.4% -1.06 11 35
327 Holy Cross 47.4% -1.07 10 31
328 UMass Lowell 47.3% -1.09 10 30
329 VMI 47.3% -1.09 10 29
330 Incarnate Word 47.3% -1.10 10 28
331 Morehead State 47.3% -1.11 9 30
332 Fairleigh Dickinson 47.3% -1.12 9 29
333 Longwood 47.2% -1.13 9 29
334 Chicago State 47.2% -1.16 9 31
335 Lindenwood 47.1% -1.17 8 30
336 Canisius 47.1% -1.18 8 30
337 UMBC 47.0% -1.22 8 31
338 Boston University 47.0% -1.22 7 33
339 Southeast Missouri State 46.9% -1.27 7 30
340 Houston Christian 46.9% -1.27 7 30
341 Niagara 46.8% -1.29 7 29
342 Lafayette 46.8% -1.29 6 31
343 Little Rock 46.8% -1.31 6 30
344 Loyola Maryland 46.8% -1.31 6 30
345 Grambling 46.7% -1.34 5 31
346 Fairfield 46.6% -1.36 5 33
347 Saint Francis 46.6% -1.39 5 29
348 New Hampshire 46.6% -1.40 5 28
349 Alabama A&M 46.5% -1.40 4 30
350 NJIT 46.5% -1.41 4 32
351 Le Moyne 46.5% -1.41 4 31
352 Bryant 46.5% -1.42 4 29
353 Mercyhurst 46.5% -1.43 3 32
354 Lehigh 46.4% -1.46 3 33
355 Morgan State 46.3% -1.48 3 27
356 UT Martin 46.3% -1.48 2 30
357 Stonehill 46.3% -1.49 2 31
358 Wagner 46.3% -1.50 2 28
359 Central Connecticut 46.3% -1.50 2 28
360 Maine 46.2% -1.52 1 31
361 Binghamton 46.0% -1.61 1 28
362 Southern Indiana 46.0% -1.61 1 28
363 Army 46.0% -1.62 1 30
364 Delaware State 45.9% -1.65 0 27
365 Western Illinois 45.7% -1.73 0 28