Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger

Game Outcomes

Each point is a completed game — x: home team's season-to-date value entering the game, y: away team's. home win home loss

Predicts home win: AUC 0.69 (team entering with the better value wins 64% of games)

Based on 5531 of 5752 completed games where both teams entered with a season-to-date value.

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 93.7 max 125.3 mean 108.6 std 5.5 (n=365)

Team Rankings

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# Team Defensive Efficiency z Pctl GP
1 Gonzaga 93.7 -2.70 100 35
2 Duke 94.9 -2.48 100 38
3 Marist 95.3 -2.41 99 30
4 Iowa State 96.1 -2.26 99 37
5 Houston 96.3 -2.22 99 37
6 Arizona 96.5 -2.18 99 39
7 UC Irvine 97.1 -2.07 98 33
8 Michigan 97.4 -2.03 98 40
9 Cincinnati 97.5 -2.01 98 33
10 Hawai'i 97.5 -2.01 98 31
11 UT Martin 97.6 -2.00 97 30
12 Northern Iowa 97.8 -1.95 97 35
13 Nebraska 97.9 -1.94 97 35
14 Saint Mary's 97.9 -1.94 96 32
15 St. John's 98.4 -1.85 96 37
16 Seton Hall 98.5 -1.83 96 33
17 UConn 98.7 -1.80 96 40
18 California Baptist 98.7 -1.80 95 34
19 Florida 98.9 -1.76 95 35
20 Seattle U 99.0 -1.73 95 33
21 Saint Louis 99.1 -1.71 95 34
22 Grand Canyon 99.3 -1.68 94 32
23 Navy 99.5 -1.64 94 32
24 Howard 99.6 -1.63 94 31
25 Southern Illinois 99.7 -1.61 93 31
26 SIU Edwardsville 99.9 -1.57 93 29
27 McNeese 100.1 -1.53 93 32
28 Kansas 100.3 -1.51 93 35
29 Stephen F. Austin 100.5 -1.47 92 32
30 UT Arlington 100.7 -1.43 92 30
31 Utah Valley 100.8 -1.41 92 31
32 North Texas 100.9 -1.40 91 31
33 San Diego State 100.9 -1.40 91 32
34 West Virginia 101.0 -1.39 91 35
35 UC San Diego 101.2 -1.35 91 32
36 New Mexico 101.3 -1.32 90 36
37 Dayton 101.4 -1.31 90 37
38 High Point 101.5 -1.29 90 33
39 Virginia 101.7 -1.26 90 36
40 Michigan State 101.7 -1.25 89 35
41 Clemson 101.8 -1.23 89 35
42 Wichita State 102.0 -1.20 89 35
43 Tennessee 102.1 -1.19 88 37
44 Siena 102.2 -1.17 88 35
45 Portland State 102.2 -1.17 88 28
46 UMBC 102.2 -1.16 88 31
47 Fordham 102.2 -1.16 87 29
48 Illinois State 102.3 -1.15 87 35
49 Louisville 102.3 -1.14 87 35
50 TCU 102.5 -1.11 87 35
51 Grambling 102.7 -1.07 86 31
52 Lindenwood 102.8 -1.06 86 30
53 Rhode Island 102.9 -1.04 86 32
54 South Florida 102.9 -1.04 85 33
55 DePaul 102.9 -1.03 85 32
56 UNC Wilmington 103.0 -1.02 85 32
57 Stonehill 103.0 -1.01 85 31
58 Southeast Missouri State 103.1 -1.00 84 30
59 Saint Joseph's 103.2 -0.98 84 34
60 Miami 103.2 -0.98 84 35
61 Illinois 103.4 -0.95 84 37
62 Merrimack 103.4 -0.94 83 34
63 North Dakota State 103.5 -0.93 83 32
64 Drexel 103.5 -0.92 83 32
65 North Carolina 103.5 -0.92 82 33
66 VCU 103.5 -0.92 82 36
67 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 103.6 -0.91 82 29
68 Quinnipiac 103.6 -0.90 82 31
69 Hofstra 103.7 -0.89 81 33
70 Harvard 103.7 -0.89 81 28
71 Bowling Green 103.7 -0.88 81 29
72 Utah State 103.8 -0.87 80 35
73 Towson 103.8 -0.86 80 32
74 Monmouth 103.8 -0.86 80 33
75 Louisiana Tech 104.1 -0.81 80 31
76 Mercyhurst 104.2 -0.80 79 32
77 East Tennessee State 104.2 -0.79 79 32
78 Saint Peter's 104.3 -0.78 79 28
79 UAB 104.3 -0.78 79 31
80 Long Island University 104.5 -0.75 78 35
81 Boston College 104.5 -0.75 78 31
82 St. Thomas-Minnesota 104.6 -0.73 78 31
83 UIC 104.7 -0.72 77 33
84 Mount St. Mary's 104.7 -0.71 77 31
85 Iona 104.7 -0.71 77 32
86 UT Rio Grande Valley 104.7 -0.71 77 31
87 App State 104.7 -0.71 76 30
88 Coastal Carolina 104.9 -0.67 76 31
89 George Mason 105.1 -0.65 76 32
90 Maine 105.1 -0.64 76 31
91 Iowa 105.1 -0.64 75 37
92 California 105.2 -0.61 75 33
93 Pacific 105.2 -0.61 75 31
94 Davidson 105.3 -0.60 74 32
95 Belmont 105.3 -0.60 74 31
96 Vermont 105.4 -0.57 74 32
97 Tennessee State 105.5 -0.56 74 30
98 Akron 105.5 -0.56 73 33
99 Vanderbilt 105.7 -0.54 73 36
100 South Alabama 105.7 -0.53 73 31
101 Nevada 105.8 -0.52 73 37
102 Miami (OH) 105.8 -0.51 72 31
103 Loyola Marymount 105.9 -0.50 72 31
104 UC Davis 105.9 -0.49 72 31
105 Villanova 105.9 -0.49 71 33
106 Texas State 106.0 -0.48 71 30
107 New Haven 106.0 -0.47 71 28
108 Florida Atlantic 106.0 -0.47 71 31
109 Bradley 106.0 -0.47 70 33
110 Fresno State 106.0 -0.47 70 31
111 Tulsa 106.3 -0.43 70 36
112 Idaho 106.3 -0.42 70 33
113 Longwood 106.3 -0.42 69 29
114 Florida A&M 106.3 -0.41 69 29
115 Kentucky 106.4 -0.41 69 36
116 Valparaiso 106.4 -0.41 68 32
117 Santa Clara 106.5 -0.39 68 34
118 Fairfield 106.5 -0.39 68 33
119 Austin Peay 106.5 -0.39 68 29
120 Jacksonville State 106.5 -0.39 67 29
121 Arkansas State 106.5 -0.38 67 30
122 Lamar 106.7 -0.36 67 29
123 Abilene Christian 106.7 -0.35 66 30
124 Memphis 106.8 -0.34 66 32
125 Marquette 106.8 -0.33 66 32
126 William & Mary 106.8 -0.33 66 30
127 Southern Miss 106.8 -0.33 65 33
128 Troy 106.8 -0.33 65 32
129 UCLA 106.8 -0.33 65 36
130 Tarleton State 106.8 -0.32 65 28
131 Indiana 106.9 -0.31 64 32
132 Le Moyne 107.0 -0.30 64 31
133 BYU 107.0 -0.30 64 35
134 Brown 107.0 -0.30 63 25
135 Georgia 107.0 -0.29 63 33
136 Stanford 107.0 -0.29 63 33
137 Pennsylvania 107.0 -0.29 63 29
138 Texas Tech 107.1 -0.27 62 34
139 Minnesota 107.2 -0.25 62 33
140 Washington 107.3 -0.23 62 33
141 Virginia Tech 107.4 -0.22 62 32
142 Eastern Michigan 107.4 -0.22 61 30
143 Delaware State 107.4 -0.22 61 27
144 Syracuse 107.5 -0.21 61 32
145 Boise State 107.5 -0.20 60 30
146 Charleston 107.6 -0.20 60 31
147 Georgetown 107.6 -0.18 60 34
148 Georgia Tech 107.6 -0.18 60 31
149 George Washington 107.6 -0.18 59 34
150 Charleston Southern 107.7 -0.18 59 29
151 Texas A&M 107.8 -0.16 59 34
152 Eastern Illinois 107.8 -0.16 59 30
153 Cal State Northridge 107.8 -0.15 58 32
154 Winthrop 107.8 -0.15 58 31
155 Western Kentucky 107.8 -0.15 58 30
156 UC Santa Barbara 107.9 -0.14 57 30
157 Bethune-Cookman 107.9 -0.14 57 31
158 Montana State 107.9 -0.13 57 29
159 Kennesaw State 107.9 -0.13 57 32
160 Norfolk State 107.9 -0.13 56 28
161 Indiana State 107.9 -0.13 56 30
162 Purdue 108.0 -0.12 56 39
163 Furman 108.0 -0.12 55 32
164 Ohio State 108.0 -0.12 55 34
165 Southern Indiana 108.0 -0.11 55 28
166 Yale 108.0 -0.11 55 29
167 NJIT 108.1 -0.10 54 32
168 Stony Brook 108.2 -0.08 54 30
169 Wyoming 108.2 -0.08 54 32
170 South Carolina Upstate 108.2 -0.08 54 29
171 Duquesne 108.2 -0.08 53 31
172 SE Louisiana 108.2 -0.07 53 30
173 USC 108.3 -0.07 53 31
174 Robert Morris 108.3 -0.06 52 31
175 Lehigh 108.3 -0.06 52 33
176 Hampton 108.3 -0.06 52 30
177 Temple 108.4 -0.04 52 31
178 Florida State 108.4 -0.04 51 33
179 New Mexico State 108.5 -0.03 51 29
180 Central Arkansas 108.5 -0.03 51 32
181 Cal State Fullerton 108.5 -0.03 51 32
182 Prairie View A&M 108.5 -0.03 50 33
183 Richmond 108.5 -0.02 50 31
184 Ball State 108.6 -0.01 50 29
185 Alabama State 108.6 -0.01 49 31
186 NC State 108.6 -0.01 49 34
187 Lipscomb 108.6 +0.00 49 30
188 Columbia 108.6 +0.00 49 26
189 Massachusetts 108.7 +0.01 48 32
190 Youngstown State 108.8 +0.02 48 29
191 Sam Houston 108.8 +0.03 48 31
192 Presbyterian 108.8 +0.04 48 30
193 Wisconsin 108.9 +0.05 47 35
194 Florida International 109.0 +0.06 47 29
195 Butler 109.1 +0.08 47 32
196 UTEP 109.1 +0.08 46 28
197 Creighton 109.1 +0.08 46 34
198 South Dakota State 109.1 +0.09 46 29
199 SMU 109.1 +0.09 46 34
200 American University 109.2 +0.09 45 30
201 Wright State 109.2 +0.10 45 33
202 Georgia State 109.2 +0.10 45 30
203 UNC Asheville 109.2 +0.11 45 29
204 Montana 109.3 +0.12 44 30
205 Middle Tennessee 109.3 +0.12 44 29
206 San Francisco 109.3 +0.13 44 32
207 Maryland Eastern Shore 109.3 +0.13 43 30
208 Wagner 109.3 +0.13 43 28
209 Northern Colorado 109.4 +0.13 43 29
210 Northwestern 109.4 +0.14 43 34
211 Utah Tech 109.4 +0.14 42 31
212 Alabama A&M 109.4 +0.15 42 30
213 Arkansas 109.5 +0.15 42 37
214 Wake Forest 109.6 +0.17 41 35
215 Ole Miss 109.7 +0.19 41 35
216 Radford 109.7 +0.20 41 29
217 Little Rock 109.7 +0.20 41 30
218 Central Connecticut 109.8 +0.22 40 28
219 UCF 110.0 +0.24 40 33
220 Long Beach State 110.0 +0.24 40 30
221 Kent State 110.1 +0.26 40 32
222 Missouri State 110.1 +0.27 39 31
223 Oregon State 110.2 +0.28 39 33
224 Missouri 110.2 +0.29 39 33
225 Northern Kentucky 110.3 +0.29 38 31
226 James Madison 110.3 +0.31 38 32
227 Louisiana 110.4 +0.31 38 33
228 Canisius 110.4 +0.32 38 30
229 Tulane 110.5 +0.34 37 32
230 Colgate 110.6 +0.35 37 31
231 Tennessee Tech 110.6 +0.35 37 28
232 Alabama 110.6 +0.36 37 35
233 Murray State 110.7 +0.37 36 33
234 Liberty 110.7 +0.38 36 31
235 Texas 110.8 +0.38 36 35
236 Southern 110.8 +0.38 35 31
237 Pittsburgh 110.8 +0.39 35 33
238 New Orleans 110.8 +0.39 35 33
239 East Texas A&M 110.8 +0.40 35 30
240 Colorado State 110.9 +0.41 34 33
241 Princeton 110.9 +0.41 34 28
242 Arizona State 110.9 +0.41 34 33
243 Nicholls 110.9 +0.41 34 32
244 Kansas State 110.9 +0.41 33 32
245 St. Bonaventure 110.9 +0.42 33 33
246 East Carolina 111.1 +0.44 33 30
247 New Hampshire 111.1 +0.44 32 28
248 Baylor 111.1 +0.45 32 33
249 Oregon 111.2 +0.45 32 32
250 UNLV 111.2 +0.45 32 34
251 Samford 111.2 +0.45 31 30
252 South Carolina 111.2 +0.47 31 32
253 Marshall 111.2 +0.47 31 31
254 Florida Gulf Coast 111.2 +0.47 30 32
255 Notre Dame 111.4 +0.49 30 31
256 UC Riverside 111.4 +0.51 30 30
257 Toledo 111.4 +0.51 30 32
258 Portland 111.4 +0.51 29 32
259 Georgia Southern 111.5 +0.51 29 35
260 Texas Southern 111.5 +0.52 29 28
261 Drake 111.6 +0.53 29 32
262 Northwestern State 111.6 +0.53 28 30
263 Old Dominion 111.6 +0.53 28 32
264 Morehead State 111.7 +0.55 28 30
265 Oklahoma State 111.7 +0.55 27 35
266 Washington State 111.7 +0.56 27 31
267 Rutgers 111.8 +0.56 27 34
268 Houston Christian 111.8 +0.57 27 30
269 Weber State 111.8 +0.57 26 30
270 LSU 111.9 +0.59 26 32
271 Oklahoma 111.9 +0.59 26 37
272 Colorado 112.0 +0.60 26 33
273 Mercer 112.0 +0.60 25 29
274 Cal Poly 112.0 +0.61 25 31
275 Lafayette 112.2 +0.63 25 31
276 Xavier 112.2 +0.64 24 33
277 UMass Lowell 112.6 +0.71 24 30
278 Omaha 112.6 +0.72 24 29
279 Buffalo 112.6 +0.72 24 30
280 Fairleigh Dickinson 112.7 +0.73 23 29
281 Auburn 112.7 +0.74 23 38
282 Campbell 112.8 +0.74 23 32
283 Bryant 112.8 +0.75 23 29
284 South Dakota 112.8 +0.75 22 29
285 North Carolina A&T 112.8 +0.75 22 28
286 San Diego 112.8 +0.76 22 31
287 Dartmouth 112.9 +0.76 21 25
288 Morgan State 112.9 +0.77 21 27
289 Bucknell 113.0 +0.79 21 33
290 Detroit Mercy 113.0 +0.79 21 30
291 Charlotte 113.0 +0.79 20 33
292 Providence 113.1 +0.80 20 33
293 La Salle 113.1 +0.81 20 31
294 Rice 113.1 +0.81 20 29
295 Ohio 113.2 +0.82 19 30
296 Sacred Heart 113.2 +0.83 19 32
297 West Georgia 113.3 +0.84 19 30
298 Delaware 113.3 +0.85 18 30
299 Mississippi State 113.4 +0.86 18 32
300 Niagara 113.4 +0.87 18 29
301 Central Michigan 113.6 +0.89 18 29
302 UAlbany 113.7 +0.91 17 29
303 Pepperdine 113.7 +0.92 17 30
304 Loyola Maryland 113.7 +0.92 17 30
305 Holy Cross 113.9 +0.95 16 31
306 North Dakota 114.1 +0.98 16 32
307 Western Carolina 114.3 +1.02 16 29
308 Southern Utah 114.3 +1.03 16 29
309 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 114.4 +1.03 15 30
310 Boston University 114.4 +1.04 15 33
311 Purdue Fort Wayne 114.4 +1.04 15 29
312 Maryland 114.4 +1.05 15 33
313 Jacksonville 114.5 +1.05 14 30
314 Idaho State 114.5 +1.05 14 30
315 Loyola Chicago 114.5 +1.05 14 33
316 Elon 114.5 +1.06 13 30
317 Wofford 114.5 +1.06 13 30
318 South Carolina State 114.6 +1.07 13 30
319 Oral Roberts 114.6 +1.08 13 30
320 Eastern Washington 114.8 +1.11 12 32
321 Army 114.8 +1.11 12 30
322 North Carolina Central 114.8 +1.11 12 28
323 Northern Illinois 114.9 +1.12 12 28
324 Alcorn State 114.9 +1.13 11 32
325 Chattanooga 114.9 +1.13 11 29
326 Cal State Bakersfield 115.1 +1.17 11 30
327 Sacramento State 115.1 +1.17 10 28
328 Milwaukee 115.3 +1.19 10 31
329 Evansville 115.3 +1.20 10 30
330 Manhattan 115.4 +1.21 10 31
331 Incarnate Word 115.4 +1.21 9 28
332 Chicago State 115.8 +1.29 9 31
333 Western Illinois 116.0 +1.32 9 28
334 Binghamton 116.0 +1.33 9 28
335 Western Michigan 116.1 +1.35 8 29
336 Utah 116.1 +1.35 8 32
337 Northeastern 116.1 +1.35 8 31
338 Green Bay 116.6 +1.43 7 31
339 Oakland 116.8 +1.46 7 31
340 Stetson 116.8 +1.48 7 31
341 Rider 116.9 +1.48 7 28
342 Coppin State 116.9 +1.48 6 30
343 Cornell 117.0 +1.51 6 26
344 Jackson State 117.1 +1.53 6 33
345 Penn State 117.4 +1.57 5 32
346 Queens University 117.5 +1.59 5 34
347 UNC Greensboro 118.0 +1.68 5 32
348 Kansas City 118.1 +1.70 5 28
349 Saint Francis 118.1 +1.71 4 29
350 North Alabama 118.2 +1.72 4 28
351 Northern Arizona 118.4 +1.77 4 29
352 Air Force 118.5 +1.78 4 32
353 IU Indianapolis 118.7 +1.81 3 30
354 Eastern Kentucky 119.3 +1.92 3 30
355 Mississippi Valley State 119.5 +1.97 3 32
356 UTSA 119.6 +1.97 2 28
357 The Citadel 119.7 +2.00 2 30
358 UL Monroe 119.8 +2.02 2 30
359 San José State 120.1 +2.06 2 32
360 Denver 121.2 +2.27 1 29
361 Gardner-Webb 122.4 +2.48 1 30
362 VMI 123.1 +2.60 1 29
363 Cleveland State 124.0 +2.77 1 30
364 North Florida 124.4 +2.85 0 30
365 Bellarmine 125.3 +3.00 0 30