And then my good friend Shaggy says "Come spend some time, family" "44/876" -- Shaggy & Sting

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.72 (team entering with the better value wins 68% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 3.4% max 90.0% mean 49.1% std 17.9% (n=364)

Team Rankings

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# Team Win Percentage (WP) z Pctl GP
1 Florida 90.0% +2.28 100 40
2 Duke 89.7% +2.27 100 39
3 Drake 87.9% +2.16 99 33
4 Houston 87.5% +2.14 99 40
5 St. John's 86.1% +2.06 99 36
6 UC San Diego 84.8% +1.99 99 33
7 Auburn 84.2% +1.96 98 38
8 Memphis 82.9% +1.88 98 35
9 Saint Mary's 82.4% +1.85 98 34
10 High Point 81.8% +1.82 98 33
11 UC Irvine 81.6% +1.81 97 38
12 Michigan State 81.1% +1.78 97 37
13 Clemson 79.4% +1.69 97 34
14 VCU 79.4% +1.69 96 34
15 Tennessee 78.9% +1.66 96 38
16 Akron 78.8% +1.66 96 33
17 McNeese 78.8% +1.66 96 33
18 Liberty 78.1% +1.62 95 32
19 Louisville 77.1% +1.56 95 35
20 Central Connecticut 76.7% +1.54 95 30
21 New Mexico 76.5% +1.53 94 34
22 Grand Canyon 75.8% +1.49 94 33
23 UNC Wilmington 75.8% +1.49 94 33
24 Utah State 75.8% +1.49 94 33
25 Alabama 75.7% +1.48 93 37
26 Texas Tech 75.7% +1.48 93 37
27 Bradley 75.0% +1.44 93 36
28 Chattanooga 75.0% +1.44 93 36
29 Maryland 75.0% +1.44 92 36
30 George Mason 74.3% +1.40 92 35
31 Gonzaga 74.3% +1.40 92 35
32 North Texas 73.5% +1.36 91 34
33 Robert Morris 73.5% +1.36 91 34
34 Michigan 73.0% +1.33 91 37
35 Wisconsin 73.0% +1.33 91 37
36 Yale 72.4% +1.30 90 29
37 BYU 72.2% +1.29 90 36
38 Colorado State 72.2% +1.29 90 36
39 Charleston 71.9% +1.27 90 32
40 Miami (OH) 71.9% +1.27 89 32
41 Utah Valley 71.9% +1.27 89 32
42 Iowa State 71.4% +1.24 89 35
43 Oregon 71.4% +1.24 88 35
44 San Francisco 70.6% +1.20 88 34
45 Lipscomb 69.7% +1.15 88 33
46 Boise State 69.4% +1.13 88 36
47 Creighton 69.4% +1.13 87 36
48 Furman 68.8% +1.09 87 32
49 Montana 68.8% +1.09 87 32
50 Northern Colorado 68.8% +1.09 87 32
51 Arkansas State 68.6% +1.08 86 35
52 SMU 68.6% +1.08 86 35
53 UConn 68.6% +1.08 86 35
54 St. Thomas-Minnesota 67.7% +1.04 85 31
55 Marquette 67.6% +1.03 85 34
56 Texas A&M 67.6% +1.03 85 34
57 UCLA 67.6% +1.03 85 34
58 Dayton 66.7% +0.98 84 33
59 Kentucky 66.7% +0.98 84 36
60 Loyola Chicago 66.7% +0.98 84 36
61 Marist 66.7% +0.98 83 30
62 North Alabama 66.7% +0.98 83 33
63 Ole Miss 66.7% +0.98 83 36
64 Purdue 66.7% +0.98 83 36
65 San Diego State 66.7% +0.98 82 30
66 Belmont 65.6% +0.92 82 32
67 Norfolk State 65.6% +0.92 82 32
68 Towson 65.6% +0.92 82 32
69 Troy 65.6% +0.92 81 32
70 Wake Forest 65.6% +0.92 81 32
71 Arizona 64.9% +0.88 81 37
72 Kent State 64.7% +0.87 80 34
73 Missouri 64.7% +0.87 80 34
74 Xavier 64.7% +0.87 80 34
75 Cal State Northridge 64.5% +0.86 80 31
76 Samford 64.5% +0.86 79 31
77 Winthrop 64.5% +0.86 79 31
78 UAB 63.9% +0.82 79 36
79 Bryant 63.6% +0.81 79 33
80 St. Bonaventure 63.6% +0.81 78 33
81 Milwaukee 63.3% +0.79 78 30
82 South Alabama 63.3% +0.79 78 30
83 Illinois 62.9% +0.77 77 35
84 Mount St. Mary's 62.9% +0.77 77 35
85 Saint Joseph's 62.9% +0.77 77 35
86 Middle Tennessee 62.5% +0.75 77 32
87 North Carolina 62.2% +0.73 76 37
88 North Dakota State 62.1% +0.72 76 29
89 Kansas 61.8% +0.70 76 34
90 Mississippi State 61.8% +0.70 75 34
91 Santa Clara 61.8% +0.70 75 34
92 SIU Edwardsville 61.3% +0.68 75 31
93 Vermont 61.3% +0.68 75 31
94 Arkansas 61.1% +0.67 74 36
95 Princeton 60.7% +0.65 74 28
96 UNC Asheville 60.7% +0.65 74 28
97 American University 60.6% +0.64 74 33
98 Cleveland State 60.6% +0.64 73 33
99 George Washington 60.6% +0.64 73 33
100 Georgia 60.6% +0.64 73 33
101 Jacksonville State 60.6% +0.64 72 33
102 Omaha 60.6% +0.64 72 33
103 Vanderbilt 60.6% +0.64 72 33
104 Illinois State 60.0% +0.61 72 35
105 James Madison 60.0% +0.61 71 30
106 Nebraska 60.0% +0.61 71 35
107 Southeast Missouri State 60.0% +0.61 71 30
108 Stanford 60.0% +0.61 71 35
109 Indiana 59.4% +0.57 70 32
110 Northern Iowa 59.4% +0.57 70 32
111 Oregon State 59.4% +0.57 70 32
112 Quinnipiac 59.4% +0.57 69 32
113 UC Riverside 59.4% +0.57 69 32
114 UC Santa Barbara 59.4% +0.57 69 32
115 West Virginia 59.4% +0.57 69 32
116 Youngstown State 59.4% +0.57 68 32
117 Cornell 59.3% +0.56 68 27
118 Oklahoma 58.8% +0.54 68 34
119 Louisiana Tech 58.6% +0.53 67 29
120 South Dakota State 58.6% +0.53 67 29
121 Southern 58.6% +0.53 67 29
122 UNC Greensboro 58.6% +0.53 67 29
123 Villanova 58.3% +0.51 66 36
124 Marshall 58.1% +0.50 66 31
125 Radford 58.1% +0.50 66 31
126 East Tennessee State 56.7% +0.42 66 30
127 Lamar 56.7% +0.42 65 30
128 Nicholls 56.7% +0.42 65 30
129 Purdue Fort Wayne 56.7% +0.42 65 30
130 Rhode Island 56.7% +0.42 64 30
131 South Carolina State 56.7% +0.42 64 30
132 Maine 56.3% +0.40 64 32
133 Baylor 55.9% +0.38 64 34
134 Washington State 55.9% +0.38 63 34
135 Portland State 55.2% +0.34 63 29
136 East Carolina 54.8% +0.32 63 31
137 Jacksonville 54.8% +0.32 63 31
138 Little Rock 54.8% +0.32 62 31
139 Bucknell 54.5% +0.30 62 33
140 Florida Gulf Coast 54.5% +0.30 62 33
141 Merrimack 54.5% +0.30 61 33
142 UNLV 54.5% +0.30 61 33
143 Wichita State 54.5% +0.30 61 33
144 Queens University 54.5% +0.30 61 33
145 Alabama State 54.3% +0.29 60 35
146 Cincinnati 54.3% +0.29 60 35
147 Texas 54.3% +0.29 60 35
148 UCF 54.1% +0.27 60 37
149 Eastern Kentucky 53.3% +0.23 59 30
150 Kennesaw State 53.3% +0.23 59 30
151 Manhattan 53.3% +0.23 59 30
152 SE Louisiana 53.3% +0.23 58 30
153 South Dakota 53.3% +0.23 58 30
154 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 53.3% +0.23 58 30
155 California Baptist 53.1% +0.22 58 32
156 Drexel 53.1% +0.22 57 32
157 Florida State 53.1% +0.22 57 32
158 Northeastern 53.1% +0.22 57 32
159 Ohio State 53.1% +0.22 56 32
160 Pittsburgh 53.1% +0.22 56 32
161 Saint Louis 53.1% +0.22 56 32
162 Toledo 53.1% +0.22 56 32
163 Tulane 53.1% +0.22 55 32
164 Georgetown 52.9% +0.21 55 34
165 App State 51.7% +0.14 55 29
166 Longwood 51.7% +0.14 55 29
167 UIC 51.7% +0.14 54 29
168 Loyola Marymount 51.6% +0.14 54 31
169 Penn State 51.6% +0.14 54 31
170 Temple 51.6% +0.14 53 31
171 Bethune-Cookman 51.5% +0.13 53 33
172 Florida Atlantic 51.5% +0.13 53 33
173 Iowa 51.5% +0.13 53 33
174 Nevada 51.5% +0.13 52 33
175 Northwestern 51.5% +0.13 52 33
176 Wofford 51.5% +0.13 52 33
177 Brown 50.0% +0.05 52 26
178 Davidson 50.0% +0.05 51 32
179 Georgia Southern 50.0% +0.05 51 32
180 Georgia Tech 50.0% +0.05 51 34
181 Iona 50.0% +0.05 50 34
182 TCU 50.0% +0.05 50 32
183 UTEP 50.0% +0.05 50 30
184 Western Kentucky 50.0% +0.05 50 30
185 William & Mary 50.0% +0.05 49 30
186 Oklahoma State 48.6% -0.03 49 35
187 USC 48.6% -0.03 49 35
188 Kansas State 48.5% -0.04 48 33
189 Utah 48.5% -0.04 48 33
190 Army 48.4% -0.04 48 31
191 Boston University 48.4% -0.04 48 31
192 Eastern Michigan 48.4% -0.04 47 31
193 Elon 48.4% -0.04 47 31
194 Long Island University 48.4% -0.04 47 31
195 Northern Kentucky 48.4% -0.04 47 31
196 Ohio 48.4% -0.04 46 31
197 UAlbany 48.4% -0.04 46 31
198 New Mexico State 48.3% -0.05 46 29
199 UMass Lowell 48.3% -0.05 45 29
200 Jackson State 47.1% -0.12 45 34
201 Incarnate Word 46.9% -0.13 45 32
202 Minnesota 46.9% -0.13 45 32
203 Murray State 46.9% -0.13 44 32
204 Rutgers 46.9% -0.13 44 32
205 Virginia 46.9% -0.13 44 32
206 Hampton 46.7% -0.14 44 30
207 Northern Arizona 46.7% -0.14 43 30
208 Northwestern State 46.7% -0.14 43 30
209 Tennessee State 46.7% -0.14 43 30
210 Texas State 46.7% -0.14 42 30
211 Dartmouth 46.2% -0.17 42 26
212 Delaware State 46.2% -0.17 42 26
213 Notre Dame 45.5% -0.21 42 33
214 Oakland 45.5% -0.21 41 33
215 Abilene Christian 44.8% -0.24 41 29
216 Hawai'i 44.8% -0.24 41 29
217 Idaho State 44.4% -0.26 40 27
218 UT Rio Grande Valley 44.4% -0.26 40 27
219 Cal Poly 44.1% -0.28 40 34
220 LSU 43.8% -0.30 40 32
221 Montana State 43.8% -0.30 39 32
222 Sacred Heart 43.8% -0.30 39 32
223 Siena 43.8% -0.30 39 32
224 Campbell 43.3% -0.32 39 30
225 North Florida 43.3% -0.32 38 30
226 Stonehill 43.3% -0.32 38 30
227 Tennessee Tech 43.3% -0.32 38 30
228 UC Davis 43.3% -0.32 37 30
229 Lindenwood 43.3% -0.32 37 30
230 Butler 42.9% -0.35 37 35
231 Mercyhurst 42.9% -0.35 37 28
232 California 42.4% -0.38 36 33
233 Navy 42.4% -0.38 36 33
234 Rider 42.4% -0.38 36 33
235 Syracuse 42.4% -0.38 36 33
236 Harvard 42.3% -0.38 35 26
237 Hofstra 41.9% -0.40 35 31
238 Rice 41.9% -0.40 35 31
239 Saint Francis 41.9% -0.40 34 31
240 Wright State 41.9% -0.40 34 31
241 Binghamton 41.4% -0.43 34 29
242 Florida A&M 41.4% -0.43 34 29
243 Morehead State 41.4% -0.43 33 29
244 Texas Southern 41.4% -0.43 33 29
245 DePaul 41.2% -0.45 33 34
246 Delaware 41.2% -0.45 33 34
247 Saint Peter's 40.7% -0.47 32 27
248 Colgate 40.6% -0.48 32 32
249 Georgia State 40.6% -0.48 32 32
250 La Salle 40.6% -0.48 31 32
251 Valparaiso 40.6% -0.48 31 32
252 Virginia Tech 40.6% -0.48 31 32
253 Bowling Green 40.0% -0.51 31 30
254 Colorado 40.0% -0.51 30 35
255 Columbia 40.0% -0.51 30 25
256 Indiana State 40.0% -0.51 30 30
257 Seattle U 40.0% -0.51 29 30
258 Washington 40.0% -0.51 29 30
259 Arizona State 39.4% -0.54 29 33
260 Monmouth 39.4% -0.54 29 33
261 Old Dominion 39.4% -0.54 28 33
262 San José State 39.4% -0.54 28 33
263 Ball State 39.3% -0.55 28 28
264 Stephen F. Austin 39.3% -0.55 28 28
265 Austin Peay 38.7% -0.58 27 31
266 Boston College 38.7% -0.58 27 31
267 Cal State Bakersfield 38.7% -0.58 27 31
268 Duquesne 38.7% -0.58 26 31
269 Idaho 38.7% -0.58 26 31
270 Mercer 38.7% -0.58 26 31
271 NC State 38.7% -0.58 26 31
272 South Florida 38.7% -0.58 25 31
273 Southern Illinois 38.7% -0.58 25 31
274 Wagner 38.5% -0.60 25 26
275 UT Arlington 37.9% -0.63 25 29
276 Lafayette 37.5% -0.65 24 32
277 Providence 37.5% -0.65 24 32
278 South Carolina 37.5% -0.65 24 32
279 Central Michigan 37.0% -0.68 23 27
280 Holy Cross 36.7% -0.70 23 30
281 Loyola Maryland 36.7% -0.70 23 30
282 Presbyterian 36.7% -0.70 23 30
283 UT Martin 36.7% -0.70 22 30
284 VMI 36.7% -0.70 22 30
285 Howard 35.7% -0.75 22 28
286 Morgan State 35.7% -0.75 21 28
287 Alcorn State 35.5% -0.76 21 31
288 Fairfield 35.5% -0.76 21 31
289 Gardner-Webb 35.5% -0.76 21 31
290 Massachusetts 35.5% -0.76 20 31
291 Tulsa 35.5% -0.76 20 31
292 Western Michigan 35.5% -0.76 20 31
293 Wyoming 35.5% -0.76 20 31
294 Pepperdine 35.3% -0.77 19 34
295 North Carolina Central 34.5% -0.82 19 29
296 Sam Houston 34.5% -0.82 19 29
297 UMBC 34.5% -0.82 18 29
298 UTSA 34.5% -0.82 18 29
299 Fordham 34.4% -0.82 18 32
300 Louisiana 34.4% -0.82 18 32
301 Fairleigh Dickinson 33.3% -0.88 17 30
302 Houston Christian 33.3% -0.88 17 30
303 Niagara 33.3% -0.88 17 30
304 Portland 33.3% -0.88 17 30
305 Evansville 32.3% -0.94 16 31
306 Eastern Illinois 32.1% -0.95 16 28
307 Lehigh 32.1% -0.95 16 28
308 Southern Utah 32.1% -0.95 15 28
309 Western Illinois 32.1% -0.95 15 28
310 Charlotte 31.3% -1.00 15 32
311 Kansas City 31.0% -1.01 15 29
312 Tarleton State 31.0% -1.01 14 29
313 North Dakota 30.0% -1.07 14 30
314 Pennsylvania 29.6% -1.09 14 27
315 Grambling 29.0% -1.12 13 31
316 Southern Miss 29.0% -1.12 13 31
317 Weber State 29.0% -1.12 13 31
318 Southern Indiana 28.6% -1.15 13 28
319 Denver 27.6% -1.20 12 29
320 Charleston Southern 26.7% -1.26 12 30
321 Coastal Carolina 26.7% -1.26 12 30
322 Eastern Washington 26.7% -1.26 12 30
323 Richmond 26.7% -1.26 11 30
324 Florida International 25.8% -1.30 11 31
325 Alabama A&M 24.1% -1.40 11 29
326 Buffalo 24.1% -1.40 10 29
327 IU Indianapolis 24.1% -1.40 10 29
328 Le Moyne 23.3% -1.44 10 30
329 Missouri State 23.3% -1.44 10 30
330 Central Arkansas 22.6% -1.48 9 31
331 Detroit Mercy 22.6% -1.48 9 31
332 Miami 22.6% -1.48 9 31
333 Pacific 22.6% -1.48 9 31
334 Stony Brook 22.6% -1.48 8 31
335 Seton Hall 21.9% -1.52 8 32
336 New Hampshire 20.0% -1.63 8 30
337 Stetson 20.0% -1.63 7 30
338 North Carolina A&T 19.4% -1.66 7 31
339 Fresno State 18.8% -1.70 7 32
340 Western Carolina 18.5% -1.71 7 27
341 Coppin State 17.2% -1.78 6 29
342 Long Beach State 16.7% -1.81 6 30
343 NJIT 16.7% -1.81 6 30
344 UL Monroe 16.7% -1.81 6 30
345 West Georgia 16.7% -1.81 5 30
346 East Texas A&M 16.1% -1.84 5 31
347 Utah Tech 16.1% -1.84 5 31
348 San Diego 15.6% -1.87 4 32
349 Oral Roberts 15.4% -1.89 4 26
350 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 13.8% -1.97 4 29
351 Sacramento State 13.8% -1.97 4 29
352 Cal State Fullerton 13.3% -2.00 3 30
353 Green Bay 12.9% -2.02 3 31
354 New Orleans 12.9% -2.02 3 31
355 Prairie View A&M 12.9% -2.02 2 31
356 Air Force 12.5% -2.05 2 32
357 Chicago State 12.5% -2.05 2 32
358 Northern Illinois 10.7% -2.15 2 28
359 Bellarmine 10.3% -2.17 1 29
360 South Carolina Upstate 10.3% -2.17 1 29
361 Canisius 9.7% -2.20 1 31
362 Maryland Eastern Shore 7.4% -2.33 1 27
363 The Citadel 3.8% -2.53 0 26
364 Mississippi Valley State 3.4% -2.55 0 29