But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.65 (team entering with the better value wins 61% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 45.7% max 61.6% mean 54.2% std 2.8% (n=364)

Team Rankings

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# Team True Shooting Percentage z Pctl GP
1 North Dakota State 61.6% +2.64 100 29
2 Duke 61.3% +2.56 100 39
3 Cornell 61.2% +2.53 99 27
4 St. Thomas-Minnesota 61.1% +2.48 99 31
5 High Point 59.9% +2.05 99 33
6 Gonzaga 59.7% +1.97 99 35
7 Bradley 59.6% +1.96 98 36
8 Missouri 59.6% +1.95 98 34
9 Alabama 59.6% +1.95 98 37
10 Northern Colorado 59.6% +1.94 98 32
11 Chattanooga 59.4% +1.87 97 36
12 Illinois State 59.3% +1.83 97 35
13 Lipscomb 59.2% +1.82 97 33
14 Montana 59.2% +1.81 96 32
15 BYU 59.2% +1.81 96 35
16 Liberty 59.1% +1.78 96 32
17 Oklahoma 59.1% +1.75 96 34
18 Colorado State 59.0% +1.71 95 36
19 Purdue 58.9% +1.69 95 36
20 Washington State 58.9% +1.69 95 34
21 Kentucky 58.9% +1.69 94 36
22 Oregon State 58.9% +1.69 94 32
23 Iowa 58.7% +1.61 94 33
24 Creighton 58.6% +1.58 94 36
25 Iowa State 58.6% +1.58 93 35
26 UConn 58.6% +1.57 93 35
27 Santa Clara 58.5% +1.54 93 34
28 Delaware 58.4% +1.51 93 34
29 Wisconsin 58.4% +1.51 92 37
30 Saint Louis 58.4% +1.50 92 32
31 Xavier 58.4% +1.50 92 34
32 UC San Diego 58.3% +1.47 91 33
33 Wright State 58.3% +1.47 91 31
34 Indiana State 58.2% +1.43 91 30
35 USC 58.2% +1.43 91 35
36 Cal Poly 58.1% +1.42 90 34
37 Villanova 58.1% +1.39 90 36
38 Utah State 58.1% +1.39 90 33
39 UMass Lowell 58.1% +1.39 90 29
40 Penn State 58.0% +1.36 89 31
41 Florida 58.0% +1.35 89 40
42 Auburn 57.9% +1.34 89 38
43 UC Santa Barbara 57.9% +1.34 88 32
44 Miami (OH) 57.9% +1.32 88 32
45 Texas Tech 57.8% +1.30 88 37
46 Purdue Fort Wayne 57.7% +1.26 88 30
47 Northern Iowa 57.7% +1.26 87 32
48 Akron 57.7% +1.26 87 33
49 Yale 57.7% +1.25 87 29
50 UMBC 57.6% +1.25 87 29
51 SMU 57.6% +1.22 86 35
52 Arizona 57.5% +1.19 86 37
53 North Carolina 57.5% +1.19 86 37
54 Howard 57.3% +1.13 85 28
55 Butler 57.3% +1.11 85 35
56 Drake 57.2% +1.09 85 33
57 Ohio State 57.2% +1.09 85 32
58 Samford 57.2% +1.08 84 31
59 Boise State 57.1% +1.06 84 36
60 Ohio 57.1% +1.05 84 31
61 Michigan 57.1% +1.05 83 37
62 Belmont 57.1% +1.04 83 32
63 William & Mary 57.0% +1.03 83 30
64 Maryland 57.0% +1.02 83 36
65 Dayton 56.9% +0.98 82 33
66 South Dakota State 56.9% +0.98 82 29
67 Nevada 56.8% +0.93 82 33
68 Louisville 56.7% +0.91 82 35
69 Memphis 56.7% +0.90 81 35
70 Bellarmine 56.7% +0.90 81 29
71 Clemson 56.6% +0.89 81 34
72 Texas 56.6% +0.86 80 35
73 Furman 56.4% +0.82 80 32
74 Pittsburgh 56.4% +0.81 80 32
75 Norfolk State 56.4% +0.80 80 32
76 UC Irvine 56.4% +0.79 79 38
77 Colgate 56.4% +0.79 79 32
78 Illinois 56.3% +0.78 79 35
79 Winthrop 56.3% +0.77 79 31
80 Tennessee 56.3% +0.76 78 38
81 Louisiana Tech 56.3% +0.76 78 29
82 Bucknell 56.2% +0.74 78 33
83 Oregon 56.2% +0.74 77 35
84 UNC Wilmington 56.2% +0.73 77 33
85 Florida Atlantic 56.2% +0.71 77 33
86 Omaha 56.2% +0.71 77 33
87 Rhode Island 56.1% +0.69 76 30
88 San Francisco 56.0% +0.66 76 34
89 Nebraska 55.9% +0.63 76 35
90 Arkansas 55.9% +0.63 75 36
91 Eastern Michigan 55.9% +0.62 75 31
92 Radford 55.9% +0.62 75 31
93 Montana State 55.9% +0.62 75 32
94 McNeese 55.9% +0.61 74 33
95 Georgia 55.8% +0.60 74 33
96 UCLA 55.8% +0.58 74 34
97 VCU 55.8% +0.57 74 34
98 Longwood 55.7% +0.57 73 29
99 Idaho 55.7% +0.54 73 31
100 George Mason 55.7% +0.54 73 35
101 Green Bay 55.6% +0.53 72 31
102 Tulane 55.6% +0.53 72 32
103 Virginia 55.6% +0.52 72 32
104 Michigan State 55.6% +0.51 72 37
105 Davidson 55.6% +0.51 71 32
106 Columbia 55.6% +0.51 71 25
107 Charleston 55.5% +0.49 71 32
108 Florida Gulf Coast 55.5% +0.47 71 33
109 North Texas 55.4% +0.45 70 34
110 Wofford 55.4% +0.44 70 33
111 Kansas 55.4% +0.44 70 34
112 American University 55.4% +0.43 69 33
113 UNC Asheville 55.4% +0.43 69 28
114 Cal State Northridge 55.3% +0.42 69 31
115 Niagara 55.3% +0.41 69 30
116 Ball State 55.3% +0.40 68 28
117 Grand Canyon 55.2% +0.39 68 33
118 Vanderbilt 55.2% +0.39 68 33
119 Holy Cross 55.2% +0.38 67 30
120 Ole Miss 55.2% +0.37 67 36
121 Queens University 55.2% +0.37 67 32
122 Saint Joseph's 55.1% +0.35 67 35
123 Notre Dame 55.1% +0.35 66 33
124 North Florida 55.1% +0.35 66 30
125 Miami 55.1% +0.35 66 31
126 Arizona State 55.1% +0.34 66 33
127 Loyola Chicago 55.1% +0.33 65 36
128 Le Moyne 55.1% +0.33 65 30
129 Central Connecticut 55.1% +0.32 65 30
130 DePaul 55.1% +0.32 64 34
131 Texas State 55.0% +0.31 64 30
132 Hawai'i 55.0% +0.30 64 29
133 Elon 55.0% +0.30 64 31
134 Gardner-Webb 55.0% +0.29 63 31
135 Robert Morris 54.9% +0.25 63 34
136 Eastern Washington 54.8% +0.25 63 30
137 Mississippi State 54.8% +0.22 63 34
138 Sam Houston 54.8% +0.22 62 29
139 Temple 54.7% +0.21 62 31
140 Tennessee State 54.7% +0.21 62 30
141 South Carolina State 54.7% +0.20 61 30
142 Toledo 54.7% +0.20 61 32
143 Houston 54.7% +0.20 61 40
144 Manhattan 54.7% +0.19 61 30
145 Binghamton 54.7% +0.19 60 29
146 Stanford 54.7% +0.19 60 35
147 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 54.7% +0.18 60 30
148 Baylor 54.6% +0.17 60 34
149 UIC 54.6% +0.17 59 29
150 Florida State 54.6% +0.16 59 32
151 Providence 54.6% +0.16 59 32
152 Marquette 54.6% +0.15 58 34
153 Florida A&M 54.6% +0.15 58 28
154 Colorado 54.6% +0.14 58 35
155 Milwaukee 54.5% +0.14 58 30
156 South Dakota 54.5% +0.13 57 30
157 Maine 54.5% +0.13 57 32
158 Portland 54.4% +0.08 57 30
159 Drexel 54.4% +0.08 56 32
160 IU Indianapolis 54.4% +0.08 56 29
161 Southern Illinois 54.3% +0.06 56 31
162 George Washington 54.3% +0.06 56 33
163 Saint Francis 54.3% +0.06 55 31
164 LSU 54.3% +0.05 55 32
165 Utah Valley 54.3% +0.05 55 32
166 Virginia Tech 54.3% +0.05 55 32
167 Stonehill 54.3% +0.04 54 30
168 Indiana 54.3% +0.04 54 32
169 UCF 54.3% +0.04 54 37
170 North Alabama 54.3% +0.04 53 33
171 Southeast Missouri State 54.3% +0.04 53 30
172 Rutgers 54.2% +0.03 53 32
173 UT Arlington 54.2% +0.03 53 29
174 Oral Roberts 54.2% +0.03 52 26
175 Mount St. Mary's 54.2% +0.02 52 35
176 James Madison 54.2% +0.02 52 29
177 Syracuse 54.2% +0.02 52 33
178 Utah 54.1% -0.01 51 33
179 South Alabama 54.1% -0.02 51 30
180 Bowling Green 54.1% -0.02 51 29
181 New Mexico 54.0% -0.04 50 34
182 Incarnate Word 54.0% -0.04 50 32
183 Canisius 54.0% -0.04 50 31
184 UAB 54.0% -0.04 50 36
185 UNC Greensboro 54.0% -0.05 49 29
186 Sacred Heart 54.0% -0.07 49 32
187 San José State 53.9% -0.07 49 33
188 Denver 53.9% -0.08 48 29
189 UT Rio Grande Valley 53.9% -0.08 48 27
190 Dartmouth 53.9% -0.09 48 26
191 North Carolina Central 53.9% -0.10 48 29
192 Princeton 53.9% -0.10 47 28
193 Youngstown State 53.9% -0.11 47 32
194 Presbyterian 53.8% -0.11 47 30
195 Harvard 53.8% -0.13 47 26
196 Wake Forest 53.8% -0.13 46 32
197 UTSA 53.8% -0.14 46 29
198 Lehigh 53.8% -0.14 46 28
199 Bryant 53.7% -0.15 45 33
200 Central Michigan 53.7% -0.15 45 27
201 Siena 53.7% -0.15 45 32
202 Campbell 53.7% -0.15 45 30
203 Troy 53.7% -0.15 44 32
204 Washington 53.7% -0.16 44 30
205 Murray State 53.7% -0.16 44 32
206 Middle Tennessee 53.6% -0.18 44 32
207 Kennesaw State 53.6% -0.19 43 30
208 Stetson 53.6% -0.19 43 29
209 Long Beach State 53.6% -0.20 43 30
210 Tennessee Tech 53.6% -0.21 42 30
211 Northeastern 53.6% -0.21 42 32
212 Charlotte 53.5% -0.22 42 32
213 Weber State 53.5% -0.22 42 31
214 Jacksonville State 53.5% -0.24 41 33
215 UNLV 53.5% -0.24 41 33
216 Missouri State 53.4% -0.26 41 30
217 Georgia State 53.4% -0.26 40 32
218 South Florida 53.4% -0.27 40 31
219 VMI 53.4% -0.27 40 30
220 South Carolina 53.4% -0.28 40 32
221 Kansas State 53.4% -0.28 39 32
222 Loyola Marymount 53.3% -0.29 39 31
223 SE Louisiana 53.3% -0.29 39 30
224 St. Bonaventure 53.3% -0.30 39 33
225 Northwestern 53.3% -0.30 38 33
226 Mercyhurst 53.3% -0.31 38 28
227 Arkansas State 53.3% -0.32 38 35
228 UTEP 53.2% -0.34 37 30
229 Oakland 53.2% -0.34 37 33
230 Saint Mary's 53.2% -0.34 37 34
231 Eastern Kentucky 53.2% -0.34 37 30
232 Marshall 53.2% -0.35 36 31
233 San Diego State 53.1% -0.36 36 30
234 UC Riverside 53.1% -0.36 36 32
235 Lafayette 53.1% -0.38 36 32
236 Georgia Tech 53.0% -0.40 35 34
237 North Dakota 53.0% -0.41 35 30
238 Morgan State 53.0% -0.41 35 28
239 Pepperdine 53.0% -0.42 34 34
240 Oklahoma State 53.0% -0.42 34 35
241 Cleveland State 53.0% -0.43 34 33
242 East Tennessee State 52.9% -0.43 34 30
243 Brown 52.9% -0.43 33 26
244 Cincinnati 52.9% -0.43 33 35
245 Georgetown 52.9% -0.43 33 34
246 Cal State Bakersfield 52.9% -0.44 33 31
247 Richmond 52.9% -0.45 32 30
248 Loyola Maryland 52.9% -0.46 32 30
249 Delaware State 52.8% -0.47 32 26
250 Portland State 52.8% -0.49 31 29
251 West Virginia 52.8% -0.49 31 32
252 Boston University 52.8% -0.50 31 31
253 Coastal Carolina 52.8% -0.50 31 30
254 Western Illinois 52.7% -0.51 30 28
255 Jacksonville 52.6% -0.54 30 31
256 Wyoming 52.6% -0.54 30 31
257 Northern Arizona 52.6% -0.54 29 30
258 Georgia Southern 52.6% -0.54 29 32
259 Kansas City 52.6% -0.55 29 29
260 Valparaiso 52.6% -0.56 29 32
261 Wichita State 52.6% -0.56 28 33
262 California 52.6% -0.56 28 33
263 UAlbany 52.6% -0.56 28 31
264 Rice 52.6% -0.57 28 31
265 Fairleigh Dickinson 52.5% -0.57 27 30
266 Quinnipiac 52.5% -0.57 27 32
267 Little Rock 52.5% -0.58 27 31
268 Northern Kentucky 52.5% -0.59 26 31
269 Tulsa 52.5% -0.59 26 31
270 Air Force 52.5% -0.59 26 32
271 East Carolina 52.5% -0.60 26 31
272 South Carolina Upstate 52.5% -0.60 25 29
273 Minnesota 52.5% -0.60 25 32
274 Kent State 52.5% -0.60 25 34
275 Boston College 52.4% -0.62 25 31
276 App State 52.4% -0.62 24 29
277 Vermont 52.4% -0.64 24 31
278 Charleston Southern 52.3% -0.64 24 30
279 Fordham 52.3% -0.65 23 32
280 Pennsylvania 52.3% -0.65 23 27
281 Marist 52.2% -0.68 23 30
282 Utah Tech 52.2% -0.68 23 31
283 Duquesne 52.2% -0.69 22 31
284 St. John's 52.2% -0.70 22 36
285 California Baptist 52.2% -0.71 22 32
286 Buffalo 52.1% -0.72 21 29
287 Merrimack 52.1% -0.72 21 33
288 Jackson State 52.1% -0.73 21 34
289 Pacific 52.1% -0.74 21 31
290 Idaho State 52.1% -0.74 20 27
291 Evansville 52.1% -0.75 20 31
292 Northwestern State 52.0% -0.75 20 30
293 NC State 52.0% -0.75 20 31
294 Houston Christian 52.0% -0.76 19 30
295 Navy 52.0% -0.76 19 33
296 Army 51.9% -0.79 19 31
297 Austin Peay 51.9% -0.81 18 31
298 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 51.9% -0.81 18 29
299 Monmouth 51.8% -0.84 18 33
300 Bethune-Cookman 51.7% -0.86 18 33
301 Texas A&M 51.7% -0.87 17 34
302 Stony Brook 51.7% -0.87 17 31
303 Southern Indiana 51.7% -0.88 17 28
304 Hofstra 51.6% -0.90 17 31
305 Western Kentucky 51.6% -0.91 16 30
306 Prairie View A&M 51.5% -0.93 16 31
307 SIU Edwardsville 51.5% -0.93 16 31
308 Grambling 51.5% -0.95 15 31
309 Mercer 51.4% -0.98 15 31
310 Nicholls 51.4% -0.99 15 30
311 East Texas A&M 51.4% -0.99 15 31
312 Seattle U 51.3% -1.01 14 30
313 Southern Miss 51.3% -1.03 14 29
314 UC Davis 51.2% -1.06 14 30
315 UT Martin 51.2% -1.06 13 30
316 Rider 51.2% -1.06 13 33
317 Southern Utah 51.2% -1.07 13 28
318 Sacramento State 51.1% -1.09 13 29
319 Long Island University 51.0% -1.11 12 31
320 Abilene Christian 51.0% -1.11 12 29
321 Tarleton State 51.0% -1.14 12 29
322 Hampton 50.9% -1.15 12 30
323 Texas Southern 50.9% -1.17 11 29
324 Central Arkansas 50.9% -1.18 11 31
325 Towson 50.8% -1.20 11 32
326 Northern Illinois 50.7% -1.23 10 28
327 Southern 50.6% -1.28 10 29
328 Lamar 50.4% -1.33 10 30
329 Iona 50.4% -1.33 10 34
330 West Georgia 50.3% -1.39 9 30
331 Florida International 50.2% -1.40 9 31
332 Alabama State 50.1% -1.44 9 35
333 Western Michigan 50.1% -1.44 9 31
334 Fresno State 50.0% -1.46 8 32
335 La Salle 50.0% -1.49 8 32
336 San Diego 49.9% -1.51 8 32
337 Alcorn State 49.9% -1.53 7 31
338 Morehead State 49.7% -1.58 7 29
339 New Mexico State 49.7% -1.59 7 29
340 Fairfield 49.7% -1.60 7 31
341 Louisiana 49.6% -1.63 6 32
342 New Hampshire 49.5% -1.64 6 30
343 Cal State Fullerton 49.4% -1.69 6 30
344 The Citadel 49.4% -1.69 6 26
345 Detroit Mercy 49.4% -1.69 5 31
346 Saint Peter's 49.3% -1.73 5 27
347 Stephen F. Austin 49.3% -1.73 5 28
348 New Orleans 49.3% -1.74 4 31
349 North Carolina A&T 49.3% -1.75 4 31
350 Maryland Eastern Shore 49.2% -1.76 4 27
351 TCU 49.2% -1.77 4 31
352 Western Carolina 49.1% -1.82 3 27
353 Lindenwood 49.0% -1.83 3 30
354 Alabama A&M 49.0% -1.84 3 29
355 NJIT 48.9% -1.86 2 30
356 UL Monroe 48.8% -1.89 2 30
357 Massachusetts 48.7% -1.95 2 31
358 Seton Hall 48.1% -2.15 2 32
359 Old Dominion 48.1% -2.15 1 33
360 Coppin State 48.0% -2.18 1 29
361 Eastern Illinois 48.0% -2.19 1 28
362 Chicago State 47.8% -2.28 1 32
363 Wagner 47.5% -2.36 0 26
364 Mississippi Valley State 45.7% -3.03 0 29