They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam

Does it predict winners?

Predicts home win: AUC 0.67 (team entering with the better value wins 62% of games)

See the game-by-game scatter on the Predictor page →

Team Distribution

Season-to-date value for every team, with a density curve.

min 52.4 max 90.7 mean 72.6 std 5.2 (n=364)

Team Rankings

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# Team Points Per Game z Pctl GP
1 Alabama 90.7 +3.46 100 37
2 Gonzaga 86.4 +2.64 100 35
3 Florida 84.8 +2.33 99 40
4 Kentucky 84.4 +2.26 99 36
5 South Dakota 84.4 +2.25 99 30
6 Missouri 83.6 +2.11 99 34
7 Illinois 83.6 +2.11 98 35
8 Akron 83.4 +2.06 98 33
9 Cornell 83.4 +2.06 98 27
10 Duke 83.2 +2.03 98 39
11 Auburn 83.0 +1.98 97 38
12 Arizona 82.5 +1.89 97 37
13 Iowa 82.5 +1.89 97 33
14 Winthrop 82.3 +1.86 96 31
15 Santa Clara 81.9 +1.78 96 34
16 Cal Poly 81.6 +1.72 96 34
17 St. Thomas-Minnesota 81.6 +1.72 96 31
18 Samford 81.5 +1.71 95 31
19 BYU 81.4 +1.68 95 36
20 UAB 81.4 +1.68 95 36
21 High Point 81.2 +1.63 94 33
22 Maryland 81.1 +1.62 94 36
23 North Florida 80.9 +1.59 94 30
24 Texas Tech 80.9 +1.58 94 37
25 North Carolina 80.7 +1.55 93 37
26 North Dakota State 80.7 +1.55 93 29
27 Yale 80.7 +1.54 93 29
28 Iowa State 80.3 +1.48 93 35
29 Wisconsin 80.1 +1.43 92 37
30 SMU 79.9 +1.40 92 35
31 Memphis 79.9 +1.39 92 35
32 Bryant 79.8 +1.38 91 33
33 UCF 79.8 +1.37 91 37
34 Mississippi State 79.5 +1.32 91 34
35 Cal State Northridge 79.5 +1.32 91 31
36 Northern Colorado 79.4 +1.30 90 32
37 Chattanooga 79.4 +1.30 90 36
38 Purdue Fort Wayne 79.4 +1.29 90 30
39 New Mexico 79.3 +1.28 90 34
40 Penn State 79.1 +1.24 89 31
41 Ohio 79.1 +1.23 89 31
42 South Dakota State 79.0 +1.23 89 29
43 Indiana State 79.0 +1.21 88 30
44 Washington State 78.9 +1.20 88 34
45 Vanderbilt 78.9 +1.20 88 33
46 Belmont 78.9 +1.20 88 32
47 UNC Asheville 78.9 +1.20 87 28
48 Ohio State 78.8 +1.19 87 32
49 Utah State 78.8 +1.17 87 33
50 Arkansas State 78.7 +1.17 87 35
51 Louisville 78.5 +1.12 86 35
52 Texas 78.5 +1.12 86 35
53 St. John's 78.5 +1.12 86 36
54 Oklahoma 78.3 +1.08 85 34
55 Florida Atlantic 78.1 +1.05 85 33
56 Xavier 78.1 +1.05 85 34
57 Michigan 78.0 +1.02 85 37
58 Toledo 77.9 +1.01 84 32
59 Temple 77.7 +0.98 84 31
60 Miami (OH) 77.7 +0.98 84 32
61 Michigan State 77.7 +0.97 83 37
62 Grand Canyon 77.6 +0.95 83 33
63 North Alabama 77.5 +0.94 83 33
64 UC San Diego 77.5 +0.94 83 33
65 UMBC 77.3 +0.89 82 29
66 Purdue 77.3 +0.89 82 36
67 Ole Miss 77.2 +0.87 82 36
68 Rhode Island 77.1 +0.86 82 30
69 Columbia 77.1 +0.85 81 25
70 Rutgers 77.0 +0.84 81 32
71 UConn 77.0 +0.84 81 35
72 Lipscomb 77.0 +0.84 80 33
73 Omaha 77.0 +0.84 80 33
74 Robert Morris 76.9 +0.82 80 34
75 Arkansas 76.8 +0.80 80 36
76 Delaware 76.8 +0.79 79 34
77 Charleston 76.7 +0.78 79 32
78 USC 76.7 +0.78 79 35
79 Milwaukee 76.7 +0.77 79 30
80 UNC Wilmington 76.6 +0.77 78 33
81 Marquette 76.6 +0.75 78 34
82 Longwood 76.6 +0.75 78 29
83 Oregon 76.5 +0.75 77 35
84 Eastern Kentucky 76.5 +0.74 77 30
85 William & Mary 76.5 +0.74 77 30
86 Wright State 76.5 +0.73 77 31
87 North Dakota 76.3 +0.70 76 30
88 San Francisco 76.2 +0.69 76 34
89 Morgan State 76.2 +0.68 76 28
90 VCU 76.2 +0.68 75 34
91 Kansas 76.1 +0.66 75 34
92 UMass Lowell 76.1 +0.66 75 29
93 Tennessee State 76.1 +0.66 75 30
94 Clemson 76.1 +0.66 74 34
95 Nebraska 76.0 +0.65 74 35
96 South Carolina State 76.0 +0.64 74 30
97 Manhattan 75.9 +0.63 74 30
98 Queens University 75.9 +0.62 73 33
99 Pittsburgh 75.9 +0.62 73 32
100 UC Irvine 75.8 +0.61 73 38
101 Oregon State 75.7 +0.59 72 32
102 California 75.6 +0.56 72 33
103 Howard 75.6 +0.56 72 28
104 Utah 75.5 +0.56 72 33
105 Creighton 75.5 +0.54 71 36
106 Bradley 75.4 +0.54 71 36
107 Dayton 75.4 +0.53 71 33
108 Delaware State 75.4 +0.53 71 26
109 Georgia 75.3 +0.52 70 33
110 Middle Tennessee 75.3 +0.50 70 32
111 Baylor 75.2 +0.49 70 34
112 Colorado State 75.2 +0.49 69 36
113 Montana 75.2 +0.49 69 32
114 Boise State 75.1 +0.48 69 36
115 Sacred Heart 75.1 +0.47 69 32
116 Saint Joseph's 75.1 +0.47 68 35
117 Illinois State 74.9 +0.43 68 35
118 Butler 74.7 +0.40 68 35
119 McNeese 74.7 +0.40 67 33
120 Norfolk State 74.7 +0.40 67 32
121 Marshall 74.7 +0.40 67 31
122 Syracuse 74.7 +0.39 67 33
123 Texas State 74.7 +0.39 66 30
124 Indiana 74.7 +0.39 66 32
125 Texas A&M 74.6 +0.38 66 34
126 UC Riverside 74.5 +0.36 66 32
127 Florida State 74.5 +0.35 65 32
128 UTSA 74.4 +0.34 65 29
129 Dartmouth 74.2 +0.30 65 26
130 Furman 74.2 +0.30 64 32
131 UCLA 74.2 +0.30 64 34
132 Georgia State 74.2 +0.29 64 32
133 Utah Valley 74.2 +0.29 64 32
134 UT Rio Grande Valley 74.1 +0.29 63 27
135 UIC 74.1 +0.28 63 29
136 Georgia Southern 74.1 +0.27 63 32
137 Arizona State 74.1 +0.27 63 33
138 East Carolina 74.0 +0.27 62 31
139 Bucknell 74.0 +0.27 62 33
140 Tennessee 74.0 +0.27 62 38
141 Miami 74.0 +0.26 61 31
142 Quinnipiac 74.0 +0.26 61 32
143 Villanova 74.0 +0.26 61 36
144 North Carolina Central 74.0 +0.26 61 29
145 LSU 73.8 +0.23 60 32
146 Ball State 73.8 +0.22 60 28
147 Gardner-Webb 73.8 +0.22 60 31
148 Youngstown State 73.7 +0.21 60 32
149 Mercer 73.7 +0.21 59 31
150 Tulane 73.7 +0.20 59 32
151 Kennesaw State 73.7 +0.20 59 30
152 Liberty 73.7 +0.20 58 32
153 Houston 73.7 +0.20 58 40
154 Wichita State 73.6 +0.19 58 33
155 UAlbany 73.6 +0.18 58 31
156 Saint Louis 73.6 +0.18 57 32
157 Fordham 73.5 +0.16 57 32
158 Stanford 73.5 +0.16 57 35
159 South Florida 73.4 +0.15 56 31
160 Western Kentucky 73.3 +0.13 56 30
161 Eastern Michigan 73.3 +0.13 56 31
162 UC Santa Barbara 73.2 +0.11 56 32
163 Georgia Tech 73.1 +0.09 55 34
164 Wofford 73.1 +0.08 55 33
165 Oklahoma State 73.0 +0.08 55 35
166 UT Arlington 73.0 +0.07 55 29
167 Sam Houston 72.9 +0.06 54 29
168 Saint Mary's 72.7 +0.02 54 34
169 Central Michigan 72.7 +0.01 54 27
170 Loyola Chicago 72.7 +0.01 53 36
171 Notre Dame 72.6 +0.00 53 33
172 Northern Iowa 72.6 -0.01 53 32
173 South Carolina Upstate 72.6 -0.02 53 29
174 Valparaiso 72.5 -0.02 52 32
175 Kent State 72.5 -0.02 52 34
176 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 72.5 -0.02 52 30
177 Massachusetts 72.5 -0.03 52 31
178 Northern Arizona 72.5 -0.03 51 30
179 DePaul 72.4 -0.04 51 34
180 Northwestern 72.4 -0.04 51 33
181 IU Indianapolis 72.4 -0.05 50 29
182 George Washington 72.3 -0.06 50 33
183 Nevada 72.3 -0.06 50 33
184 James Madison 72.3 -0.06 50 30
185 Southeast Missouri State 72.3 -0.07 49 30
186 Siena 72.2 -0.08 49 32
187 Southern Illinois 72.2 -0.08 49 31
188 Idaho State 72.2 -0.09 48 27
189 Idaho 72.1 -0.10 48 31
190 Princeton 72.1 -0.11 48 28
191 Nicholls 72.0 -0.11 48 30
192 Davidson 72.0 -0.11 47 32
193 Georgetown 72.0 -0.13 47 34
194 Florida Gulf Coast 72.0 -0.13 47 33
195 Troy 72.0 -0.13 47 32
196 Bowling Green 71.9 -0.13 46 30
197 Le Moyne 71.9 -0.13 46 30
198 Alabama State 71.9 -0.15 46 35
199 Pepperdine 71.8 -0.16 45 34
200 Portland State 71.8 -0.17 45 29
201 Army 71.7 -0.17 45 31
202 Radford 71.7 -0.18 45 31
203 Portland 71.7 -0.18 44 30
204 Western Michigan 71.6 -0.20 44 31
205 East Tennessee State 71.6 -0.20 44 30
206 Louisiana Tech 71.5 -0.21 44 29
207 Cal State Bakersfield 71.5 -0.22 43 31
208 Elon 71.5 -0.22 43 31
209 Jackson State 71.4 -0.23 43 34
210 Washington 71.4 -0.24 42 30
211 Jacksonville 71.4 -0.24 42 31
212 Colgate 71.4 -0.24 42 32
213 Providence 71.3 -0.25 42 32
214 California Baptist 71.3 -0.26 41 32
215 SE Louisiana 71.2 -0.27 41 30
216 Brown 71.2 -0.27 41 26
217 Cincinnati 71.2 -0.28 40 35
218 South Alabama 71.1 -0.29 40 30
219 UTEP 71.1 -0.29 40 30
220 Oral Roberts 71.1 -0.30 40 26
221 Jacksonville State 70.9 -0.32 39 33
222 Bellarmine 70.9 -0.33 39 29
223 Incarnate Word 70.9 -0.33 39 32
224 La Salle 70.9 -0.34 39 32
225 Kansas State 70.8 -0.35 38 33
226 Tennessee Tech 70.8 -0.35 38 30
227 Fresno State 70.7 -0.37 38 32
228 Montana State 70.7 -0.38 37 32
229 Northern Kentucky 70.6 -0.39 37 31
230 Murray State 70.6 -0.40 37 32
231 Southern 70.6 -0.40 37 29
232 Presbyterian 70.5 -0.40 36 30
233 Oakland 70.5 -0.41 36 33
234 Fairleigh Dickinson 70.5 -0.41 36 30
235 Texas Southern 70.4 -0.42 36 29
236 UNC Greensboro 70.4 -0.42 35 29
237 George Mason 70.4 -0.43 35 35
238 Boston College 70.4 -0.43 35 31
239 Rice 70.4 -0.44 34 31
240 Cleveland State 70.3 -0.44 34 33
241 Monmouth 70.3 -0.44 34 33
242 Loyola Marymount 70.3 -0.44 34 31
243 Buffalo 70.3 -0.44 33 29
244 Denver 70.3 -0.44 33 29
245 UT Martin 70.2 -0.47 33 30
246 Wake Forest 70.2 -0.47 33 32
247 Prairie View A&M 70.2 -0.47 32 31
248 Charlotte 70.2 -0.47 32 32
249 San Diego 70.2 -0.47 32 32
250 San José State 70.2 -0.48 31 33
251 Charleston Southern 70.1 -0.48 31 30
252 Austin Peay 70.1 -0.48 31 31
253 Tulsa 70.1 -0.48 31 31
254 Northeastern 70.1 -0.49 30 32
255 Navy 70.1 -0.49 30 33
256 Southern Miss 69.9 -0.52 30 31
257 Green Bay 69.9 -0.52 29 31
258 Stetson 69.9 -0.53 29 30
259 Central Connecticut 69.8 -0.54 29 30
260 San Diego State 69.8 -0.54 29 30
261 South Carolina 69.8 -0.55 28 32
262 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 69.8 -0.55 28 29
263 Colorado 69.7 -0.55 28 35
264 Iona 69.7 -0.57 28 34
265 NC State 69.6 -0.58 27 31
266 SIU Edwardsville 69.6 -0.58 27 31
267 Southern Indiana 69.6 -0.58 27 28
268 Drexel 69.6 -0.58 26 32
269 Eastern Washington 69.6 -0.59 26 30
270 Hampton 69.6 -0.59 26 30
271 Pennsylvania 69.6 -0.59 26 27
272 Towson 69.4 -0.62 25 32
273 Mount St. Mary's 69.3 -0.64 25 35
274 Alabama A&M 69.3 -0.64 25 29
275 Hawai'i 69.3 -0.64 25 29
276 UNLV 69.2 -0.65 24 33
277 Virginia Tech 69.2 -0.67 24 32
278 VMI 69.1 -0.67 24 30
279 Maine 69.0 -0.70 23 32
280 Campbell 68.9 -0.72 23 30
281 Florida A&M 68.8 -0.74 23 29
282 Seattle U 68.8 -0.74 23 30
283 Loyola Maryland 68.7 -0.75 22 30
284 Lehigh 68.7 -0.76 22 28
285 Bethune-Cookman 68.6 -0.77 22 33
286 Binghamton 68.6 -0.78 21 29
287 Holy Cross 68.6 -0.78 21 30
288 Drake 68.5 -0.79 21 33
289 Central Arkansas 68.5 -0.79 21 31
290 Little Rock 68.5 -0.79 20 31
291 St. Bonaventure 68.4 -0.81 20 33
292 Duquesne 68.4 -0.82 20 31
293 Harvard 68.3 -0.82 20 26
294 Lindenwood 68.3 -0.83 19 30
295 Utah Tech 68.2 -0.84 19 31
296 West Virginia 68.2 -0.86 19 32
297 Minnesota 68.1 -0.88 18 32
298 Pacific 68.0 -0.88 18 31
299 Saint Francis 68.0 -0.89 18 31
300 North Carolina A&T 67.9 -0.90 18 31
301 Florida International 67.9 -0.91 17 31
302 New Orleans 67.9 -0.91 17 31
303 Weber State 67.9 -0.91 17 31
304 Lafayette 67.8 -0.92 17 32
305 West Georgia 67.8 -0.93 16 30
306 American University 67.8 -0.93 16 33
307 Kansas City 67.7 -0.94 16 29
308 New Mexico State 67.7 -0.94 15 29
309 TCU 67.6 -0.97 15 32
310 Abilene Christian 67.6 -0.97 15 29
311 North Texas 67.5 -0.99 15 34
312 Missouri State 67.5 -0.99 14 30
313 Lamar 67.4 -1.00 14 30
314 Northern Illinois 67.4 -1.00 14 28
315 Niagara 67.4 -1.00 13 30
316 Old Dominion 67.4 -1.01 13 33
317 Stonehill 67.3 -1.02 13 30
318 Western Carolina 67.1 -1.05 13 27
319 Rider 67.0 -1.08 12 33
320 Southern Utah 66.8 -1.12 12 28
321 Fairfield 66.7 -1.13 12 31
322 Western Illinois 66.6 -1.16 12 28
323 Detroit Mercy 66.3 -1.22 11 31
324 UC Davis 66.2 -1.23 11 30
325 UL Monroe 66.1 -1.25 11 30
326 Coastal Carolina 66.0 -1.28 10 30
327 Marist 66.0 -1.28 10 30
328 Long Beach State 65.9 -1.30 10 30
329 Wyoming 65.8 -1.30 10 31
330 App State 65.8 -1.30 9 29
331 Mercyhurst 65.8 -1.31 9 28
332 Boston University 65.6 -1.34 9 31
333 Stony Brook 65.6 -1.34 9 31
334 Merrimack 65.6 -1.34 8 33
335 Richmond 65.6 -1.34 8 30
336 Long Island University 65.5 -1.37 8 31
337 Northwestern State 65.4 -1.39 7 30
338 Alcorn State 65.3 -1.40 7 31
339 Evansville 65.1 -1.45 7 31
340 Louisiana 64.9 -1.48 7 32
341 New Hampshire 64.9 -1.48 6 30
342 Virginia 64.8 -1.50 6 32
343 Canisius 64.8 -1.51 6 31
344 Houston Christian 64.7 -1.52 6 30
345 Stephen F. Austin 64.7 -1.52 5 28
346 Vermont 64.5 -1.56 5 31
347 Hofstra 64.5 -1.56 5 31
348 Grambling 64.4 -1.57 4 31
349 East Texas A&M 64.4 -1.59 4 31
350 Saint Peter's 64.1 -1.63 4 27
351 NJIT 63.9 -1.68 4 30
352 Morehead State 63.7 -1.71 3 29
353 Eastern Illinois 63.5 -1.74 3 28
354 Sacramento State 63.3 -1.78 3 29
355 Maryland Eastern Shore 63.3 -1.79 2 27
356 The Citadel 63.0 -1.85 2 26
357 Chicago State 62.5 -1.94 2 32
358 Cal State Fullerton 62.3 -1.97 2 30
359 Air Force 61.9 -2.05 1 32
360 Seton Hall 61.6 -2.12 1 32
361 Coppin State 61.3 -2.16 1 29
362 Tarleton State 60.2 -2.37 1 29
363 Wagner 57.5 -2.89 0 26
364 Mississippi Valley State 52.4 -3.87 0 29